Simulation of streamflow with statistically downscaled daily rainfall using a hybrid of wavelet and GAMLSS models

ABSTRACT

A rainfall–streamflow model is proposed, in which a downscaled rainfall series and its wavelet-based decomposed sub-series at optimum lags were used as covariates in GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape). GAMLSS is applied in climate change impact assessment using CMIP5 general climate model to simulate daily streamflow in three sub-catchments of the Onkaparinga catchment, South Australia. The Spearman correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between the observed and median simulated streamflow values were high and comparable for both the calibration and validation periods for each sub-catchment. We show that the GAMLSS has the capability to capture non-stationarity in the rainfall–streamflow process. It was also observed that the use of wavelet-based decomposed rainfall sub-series with optimum lags as covariates in the GAMLSS model captures the underlying physics of the rainfall–streamflow process. The development and application of an empirical rainfall–streamflow model that can be used to assess the impact of catchment-scale climate change on streamflow is demonstrated.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of small-scale wave–current ripples on the Ameland ebb-tidal delta

Ebb-tidal deltas are highly dynamic environments affected by both waves and currents that approach the coast under various angles. Among other bedforms of various scales, these hydrodynamics create small-scale bedforms (ripples), which increase the bed roughness and will therefore affect hydrodynamics and sediment transport. In morphodynamic models, sediment transport predictions depend on the roughness height, but the accuracy of these predictors has not been tested for field conditions with strongly mixed (wave–current dominated) forcing. In this study, small-scale bedforms were observed in the field with a 3D Profiling Sonar at five locations on the Ameland ebb-tidal delta, the Netherlands. Hydrodynamic conditions ranged from wave dominated to current dominated, but were mixed most of the time. Small-scale ripples were found on all studied parts of the delta, superimposed on megaripples. Even though a large range of hydrodynamic conditions was encountered, the spatio-temporal variations in small-scale ripple dimensions were relatively small (height 0.015 m, length 0.11 m). Also, the ripples were always highly three-dimensional. These small dimensions are probably caused by the fact that the bed consists of relatively fine sediment. Five bedform height predictors were tested, but they all overestimated the ripple heights, partly because they were not created for small grain sizes. Furthermore, the predictors all have a strong dependence on wave- and current-related velocities, whereas the ripple heights measured here were only related to the near-bed orbital velocity. Therefore, ripple heights and lengths in wave–current-dominated, fine-grained coastal areas ( mm) may be best estimated by constant values rather than values dependent on the hydrodynamics. In the case of the Ameland ebb-tidal delta, these values were found to be m and m. ©2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Cartographic Symbol Design Considerations for the Space–Time Cube

The cartographic representation of geographic phenomena in the space–time cube comes with special challenges and opportunities when compared with two-dimensional maps. While the added dimension allows the display of attributes that vary with time, it is difficult to display rapidly varying temporal data given the limited display height. In this study, we adapt 2D cyclic point symbols to construct 3D surfaces designed along a helical path for the space–time cube. We demonstrate how these complex?3D helical surfaces can display detailed data, including data reported daily over 100 years and data reported in four-hour intervals over a year. To create the point symbols, each value is plotted along the curve of a helix, with each turn of the helix representing one year or week, respectively. The model is modified by varying the radii from the time axis to all points using the attribute value, in these cases maximum daily temperature and four-hourly ridership, and then creating a triangulated surface from the resulting points. Using techniques common to terrain representation, we apply hue and saturation to the surface based on attribute values, and lightness based on relief shading. Multiple surfaces can be displayed in a space–time cube with a consistent time interval facing the viewer, and the surfaces or viewer perspective can be rotated to display synchronized variations. We see this method as one example of how cartographic design can refine or enhance operations in the space–time cube.     

Provenance and origins of a Late Paleozoic accretionary complex within the Khangai–Khentei belt in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt,central Mongolia

We have investigated the petrography, geochemistry, and detrital zircon U–Pb LA-ICPMS dating of sandstone from the Gorkhi Formation of the Khangai–Khentei belt in the Ulaanbaatar area, central Mongolia. These data are used to constrain the provenance and source rock composition of the accretionary complex, which is linked to subduction of the Paleo-Asian Ocean within the Central Asian Orogenic Belt during the Middle Devonian to Early Carboniferous. Field and microscopic observations of the modal composition of sandstone and constituent mineral chemistry indicate that the sandstone of the Gorkhi Formation is feldspathic arenite, enriched in saussuritized plagioclase. Geochemical data show that most of the sandstone and shale were derived from a continental margin to continental island arc setting, with plutonic rocks being the source rocks. Detrital zircon ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of two sandstones yields age peaks of 322 ± 3 and 346 ± 3 Ma. The zircon ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of a quartz–pumpellyite vein that cuts sandstone has a weighted mean age of 339 ± 3 Ma. Based on these zircon ages, we infer that the depositional age of sandstone within the Gorkhi Formation ranges from 320 to 340 Ma (i.e., Early Carboniferous). The provenance and depositional age of the Gorkhi Formation suggest that the evolution of the accretionary complex was influenced by the intrusion and erosion of plutonic rocks during the Early Carboniferous. We also suggest that spatial and temporal changes in the provenance of the accretionary complex in the Khangai–Khentei belt, which developed aound the southern continental margin of the Siberian Craton in relation to island arc activity, were influenced by northward subduction of the Paleo-Asian Ocean plate.     

Methodological comparison for quantitative analysis of fossil and recently derived carbon in mine soils with high content of aliphatic kerogen

In mine soil, quantification of soil organic carbon (OC) derived recently from biomass decomposition is complicated by the presence of fossil (geogenic) C derived from coal, oil shale, or similar material in the overburden. The only reliable method for such measurement is ¹⁴C analysis (i.e. radiocarbon dating) using instrumentation such as accelerator mass spectrometry, which is too expensive for routine laboratory analysis. We tested two previously used and two new methods for recent C quantification and compared them with ¹⁴C AMS radiocarbon dating as a reference using a set of soil samples (n = 14) from Sokolov, Czech Republic: (i) ¹³C isotope ratio composition, (ii) cross polarization magic angle spinning ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance (CPMAS ¹³C NMR) spectroscopy, (iii) near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) coupled with partial least squares regression and (iv) Rock–Eval pyrolysis. Conventional methods for OC determination (dry combustion, wet dichromate oxidation, loss-on-ignition) were also compared to quantify any bias connected with their use. All the methods provided acceptable recent carbon estimates in the presence of mostly aliphatic fossil C from kerogen. However, the most accurate predictions were obtained with two approaches using Rock–Eval pyrolysis parameters as predictors, namely (i) S₂ curve components and (ii) oxygen index (OI). The S₂ curve approach is based on the lower thermal stability of recent vs. fossil organic matter. The OI approach corresponded well with ¹³C NMR spectra, which showed that samples rich in recent C were richer in carboxyl C and O-alkyl C. These two methods showed the greatest potential as routine methods for recent C quantification.     

A new algorithm for distance cartogram construction

A distance cartogram is a diagram that visualizes the proximity indices between points in a network, such as time–distances between cities. The Euclidean distances between the points on the distance cartogram represent the given proximity indices. This is a useful visualization tool for the level of service of transport, e.g. difference in the level of service between regions or points in a network and its improvement in the course of time. The two previously proposed methods—multidimensional scaling (MDS) and network time–space mapping—have certain advantages and disadvantages. However, we observe that these methods are essentially the same, and the merits of both these methods can be combined to formulate a generalized solution. In this study, we first formulate the time–space mapping problem, which includes the key features of both of the above stated methods, and propose a generalized solution. We then apply this solution to the time–distances of Japan's railway networks to confirm its applicability.     

Geochemical and isotope data from the Acatlán Volcanic Field, western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt: Origin and evolution

The Quaternary Acatlán Volcanic Field (AVF) is located at the western edge of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). This region is related to the subduction of the Pacific Cocos and Rivera plates beneath the North American plate since the late Miocene. AVF rocks are products of Pleistocene volcanic activity and include lava flows, domes, erupted basaltic andesite, trachyandesite, trachydacite, and rhyolite of calc–alkaline affinity. Most rocks show depletion in high field-strength elements and enrichment in large ion lithophile elements and light rare earth elements as is typical for magmas in subduction-related volcanic arcs. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values range from 0.70361 to 0.70412, while Nd values vary from +2.3 to +5.2. Sr–Nd isotopic data plot along the mantle array. On the other hand, lead isotope compositions (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.62–18.75, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.57–15.64, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=38.37–38.67) give evidence for combined influences of the upper mantle, fluxes derived from subducted sediments, and the upper continental crust involved in magma genesis at AVF. Additionally δ¹⁸O whole rock analyses range from +6.35‰ in black pumice to +10.9‰ in white pumice of the Acatlán Ignimbrite. A fairly good correlation is displayed between Sr as well as O isotopes and SiO₂ emphasizing the effects of crustal contamination. Compositional and isotopic data suggest that the different AVF series derived from distinct parental magmas, which were generated by partial melting of a heterogeneous mantle source.     

Formation of elongated granite–migmatite domes as isostatic accommodation structures in collisional orogens

The mid-Carboniferous Pelhřimov core complex, Bohemian Massif, is a crustal-scale elongated granite–migmatite dome interpreted to have formed by gravity-driven diapiric upwelling of the metapelitic middle crust. The vertical diapiric flow is evidenced by outward-dipping foliation and lineation patterns, deformation coeval with the widespread presence of melt, rapid exhumation of the dome center from depths corresponding to pressure of about 0.6 GPa to shallow levels (pressure less than 0.2 GPa) within 2 M.y., and kinematic indicators of downward return flow of the mantling rocks. As compared to common diapirs, however, the Pelhřimov complex exhibits a more complicated inferred strain pattern with two perpendicular, irregularly alternating directions of horizontal extension in what is interpreted as the diapir head. Comparison of structural data from migmatites with anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) data in granites also reveals that only final increments of strain are recorded in the granites. The map dimensions and gravity image of the complex suggest that the diapiric upwelling affected a large portion of the orogen's interior between two microplates brought together during continental collision. The northwesterly microplate (the upper-crustal Teplá–Barrandian unit) collapsed vertically as an ‘elevator’ at around 346–337 Ma whereas the easterly microplate (Brunia) was underthrust beneath the Moldanubian rocks during ∼346–330 Ma (the indentor). It is suggested that these microplates then acted as cold and rigid margins localizing mid-crustal diapirism and associated voluminous S-type granite plutons inbetween, parallel to the edge of the Brunia indentor.We conclude that bringing together soft metapelitic middle crust with two rigid lithospheric blocks during collision resulted in significant lateral temperature and strength variations across the orogen's interior. A general conclusion from these inferences is that granite–migmatite domes delineating margins of collided microplates may form as crustal-scale structures accommodating late-orogenic isostatic reequilibration.     

Metallogenic age and hydrothermal evolution of the Jidetun Mo deposit in central Jilin Province,northeast China: Evidence from fluid inclusions,isotope systematics,and geochronology

The Jidetun deposit is a large porphyry Mo deposit that is located in central Jilin Province, northeast China. The Mo mineralization occurs mainly at the edge of porphyritic granodiorite, as well as the adjacent monzogranite. Field investigations, cross-cutting relationships, and mineral paragenetic associations indicate four stages of hydrothermal activity. To determine the relationships between mineralization and associated magmatism, and better understand the metallogenic processes in ore district, we have undertaken a series of studies incluiding molybdenite Re–Os and zircon U–Pb geochronology, fluid inclusions microthermometry, and C–H–O–S–Pb isotope compositions. The molybdenite Re–Os dating yielded a well-defined isochron age of 168.9 ± 1.9 Ma (MSWD = 0.34) that is similar to the weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 173.5 ± 1.5 Ma (MSWD = 1.8) obtained from zircons from the porphyritic granodiorite. The results lead to the conclusion that Mo mineralization, occurred in the Middle Jurassic (168.9 ± 1.9 Ma), was spatially, temporally, and genetically related to the porphyritic granodiorite (173.5 ± 1.5 Ma) rather than the older monzogranite (180.1 ± 0.6 Ma). Fluid inclusion and stable (C–H–O) isotope data indicate that the initial H₂O–NaCl fluids of mineralization stage I were of high-temperature and high-salinity affinity and exsolved from the granodiorite magma as a result of cooling and fractional crystallization. The fluids then evolved during mineralization stage II into immiscible H₂O–CO₂–NaCl fluids that facilitated the transport of metals (Mo, Cu, and Fe) and their separation from the ore-bearing magmas due to the influx of abundant external CO₂ and heated meteoric water. Subsequently, during mineralization stage III and IV, increase of pH in residual ore-forming fluids on account of CO₂ escape, and continuous decrease of ore-forming temperatures caused by the large accession of the meteoric water into the fluid system, reduced solubility and stability of metal clathrates, thus facilitating the deposition of polymetallic sulfides.     

A 2.5-D coupled FE–BE model for the dynamic interaction between saturated soil and longitudinally invariant structures

A two-and-a-half-dimensional (2.5-D) coupled finite element–boundary element (FE–BE) model is presented to simulate the three-dimensional dynamic interaction between saturated soils and structures with longitudinally invariant geometries. A regularized 2.5-D boundary integral equation for saturated porous media is derived that avoids the evaluation of singular traction integrals. The 2.5-D coupled FE–BE model is established by using the continuity conditions on the soil–structure interface. The developed model is verified through comparison with an existing semi-analytical method. Two case studies of a tunnel embedded in a poroelastic half-space and the efficiency of a vibration isolating screen are presented.