基于WACCM+DART的临近空间SABER和MLS臭氧观测同化试验研究

本研究在WACCM+DART（Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model,Data Assimilation Research Test-Bed）临近空间资料同化预报系统中加入SABER（Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry）和MLS（Microwave Limb Sounder）臭氧观测同化接口,并以2016年2月一次平流层爆发性增温（SSW）过程为模拟个例进行了SABER和MLS臭氧观测同化试验,得出以下结论:同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度观测得出的WACCM+DART臭氧分析场能够较真实反映SSW期间北极上空平流层臭氧廓线随时间的演变特征,且与ERA5（Fifth Generation of ECMWF Reanalyses）再分析资料描述的臭氧变化特征具有很好的一致性;基于SABER和MLS臭氧观测的WACCM臭氧6 h预报检验表明同化臭氧观测对臭氧分析和预报误差的改善效果主要体现在南半球高纬平流层和北半球中高纬平流层中上层-中间层底部;基于ERA5再分析资料的WACCM+DART分析场检验表明同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度资料可在提高北半球高纬地区上平流层-中间层底部臭氧场分析质量的同时减小该地区上平流层-中间层底部温度场和中间层底部纬向风场的分析误差;基于MLS臭氧资料的臭氧中期预报检验表明相对控制试验同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度资料能更好改善0~5 d下平流层和中间层底部臭氧的预报效果。     

双雷达风场反演拼图在登陆台风“莫兰蒂”(1614)强降水精细预报中的同化应用试验

利用福建龙岩、漳州、泉州新一代多普勒天气雷达和厦门海沧双偏振雷达探测资料,采用动态地球坐标系下双雷达三维风场反演与拼图技术,基于天气研究和预报模式（Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF）及其资料同化系统,对登陆台风“莫兰蒂”（1614）引起的2016年9月14—15日福建强降水过程进行了双雷达风场反演拼图资料检验及其三维变分同化对强降水精细预报影响的数值试验,结果发现:（1）动态地球坐标系下双雷达反演风场能合理反映实际风场分布状况,其误差相对较小。相较厦门翔安风廓线雷达及厦门探空秒级测风数据,反演风风向（风速）平均绝对误差分别为7.8°（2.6 m/s）及3.4°（1.1 m/s）;（2）反演风场水平方向稀疏化对同化及预报结果极为重要,过密的反演风场资料会给同化及预报结果带来负效果。文中采用18、6、2 km 3重嵌套,在3重嵌套区域均进行同化以及仅在2 km区域进行同化两种情况下,均表现为当反演风场资料水平分辨率提高到0.1°时,同化分析及预报的台风环流开始受到负影响;且当反演风场资料水平分辨率越高时,负效果越明显。敏感性试验结果显示,分辨率取0.2°时数值预报效果最好;（3）以美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统（National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Global Forecast System,NCEP/GFS）0.5°×0.5°分析场为初值,基于3个不同起报时刻（2016年9月14日14时、20时及15日02时）（北京时,下同）模拟的福建省境内台风内核雨带和螺旋雨带逐时演变、台风路径与强度、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关差异显著,其中14日14时起报试验效果最好;而14日20时起报试验效果最差,这与该试验初始台风大风轴风速明显偏大有关;（4）在上述3个不同起报时刻试验基础上,分别增加双雷达反演风场资料的三维变分同化后,福建境内地面风场和台风内核雨带、螺旋雨带逐时分布、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关、台风环流结构以及U、V风垂直廓线分布均有明显改善,最大正影响时效可达24 h;但仅对1—6 h时效内台风路径有改善。      

Hydrodynamic performance of a T-shaped floating breakwater

The comprehensive utilization of floating breakwaters, specially acting as a supporting structure for offshore marine renewable energy explorations, has received more and more attention recently. Based on linear water-wave theory, the hydrodynamic performance of a T-shaped floating breakwater is semi-analytically investigated through the matched eigenfunction expansion method (MEEM). Auxiliary functions, to speed up the convergence and improve the accuracy in the numerical computations, are introduced to represent the singular behavior of fluid field near the lower salient corners of the structure. The effects of the height and installation position of the vertical screen on the reflection and transmission coefficients, dynamic response and wave forces are examined. It is found that the presence of the screen shifts the resonance frequency of RAO for both surge and pitch modes to the low-frequency area, while has no effect on heave mode. The identical added masses, damping and transmission coefficients can be obtained in the cases where the screen holds the same distance away from the longitudinal central axis of the upper box-type structure. Moreover, a relatively small pitch response can be achieved in a wide wave–frequency range, when the breakwater is Γ-shaped.     

An efficient and robust approach to predict ship self-propulsion coefficients

Achieving a reliable and accurate numerical prediction of the self-propulsion performance of a ship is still an open problem that poses some relevant issues. Several CFD methods, ranging from boundary element methods (BEM) to higher-fidelity viscous Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) based solvers, can be used to accurately analyze the separate problems, i.e. the open water propeller and the hull calm water resistance. However, when the fully-coupled self-propulsion problem is considered, i.e. the hull advancing at uniform speed propelled by its own propulsion system, several complexities rise up. Typical flow simplifications adopted to speed-up the simulations of the single analysis (hull and propeller separately) lose their validity requiring a more complex solver to tackle the fully-coupled problem. The complexity rises up further when considering a maneuver condition. This aspect increases the computational burden and, consequently, the required time which becomes prohibitive in a preliminary ship design stage.The majority of the simplified methods proposed in literature to include propeller effects, without directly solve the propeller flow, in a high-fidelity viscous solver are not able to provide all the commonly required self-propulsion coefficients. In this work, a new method to enrich the results from a body force based approach is proposed and investigated, with the aim to reduce as much as possible the computational burden without losing any useful result. This procedure is tested for validation on the KCS hull form in self-propulsion and maneuver conditions.     

CFD modelling of a small–scale fixed multi–chamber OWC device

Wave Energy Converters (WECs) have excellent potential as a source of renewable energy that is yet to be commercially realised. Recent attention has focused on the installation of Oscillating Water Column (OWC) devices as a part of harbor walls to provide advantages of cost–sharing structures and proximity of power generation facilities to existing infrastructure. In this paper, an incompressible three–dimensional CFD model is constructed to simulate a fixed Multi–Chamber OWC (MC–OWC) device. The CFD model is validated; the simulation results are found to be in good agreement with experimental results obtained from a scale physical model tested in a wave tank. The validated CFD model is then used for a benchmark study of 96 numerical tests. These investigate the effects of the PTO damping caused by the power take–off (PTO) system on device performance. The performance is assessed for a range of regular wave heights and periods. The results demonstrate that a PTO system with an intermediate damping can be used for all chambers in the MC–OWC device for most wave period ranges, except for the long wave periods. These require a higher PTO damping. An increased incident wave height reduces the device capture width ratio, but there is a noticeable improvement for long wave periods.     

Cartographic Design and the Space–Time Cube

This paper reports on the results of an empirical evaluation that aimed to define the effectiveness and efficiency of different visual variables in depicting the Space–Time Cube’s (STC) content. Existing STC applications demonstrate that the most used visual variables are size and colour hue. Less is known, however, about their usability metrics. The research sets design criteria for STC contents, such as space–time paths, based on the cartographic design theory. The visual variables colour hue, colour value, colour saturation, size and orientation have been applied in two different use case studies. Besides, to support the three-dimensional visual environment, depth cues such as shading and transparency were considered too. User tests have been executed based on real-world problems with particular attention for the visualization strategy and data complexity. The outcomes revealed the most efficient and effective visual variables to represent data of various complexities in the STC.     

Cartographic Symbol Design Considerations for the Space–Time Cube

The cartographic representation of geographic phenomena in the space–time cube comes with special challenges and opportunities when compared with two-dimensional maps. While the added dimension allows the display of attributes that vary with time, it is difficult to display rapidly varying temporal data given the limited display height. In this study, we adapt 2D cyclic point symbols to construct 3D surfaces designed along a helical path for the space–time cube. We demonstrate how these complex?3D helical surfaces can display detailed data, including data reported daily over 100 years and data reported in four-hour intervals over a year. To create the point symbols, each value is plotted along the curve of a helix, with each turn of the helix representing one year or week, respectively. The model is modified by varying the radii from the time axis to all points using the attribute value, in these cases maximum daily temperature and four-hourly ridership, and then creating a triangulated surface from the resulting points. Using techniques common to terrain representation, we apply hue and saturation to the surface based on attribute values, and lightness based on relief shading. Multiple surfaces can be displayed in a space–time cube with a consistent time interval facing the viewer, and the surfaces or viewer perspective can be rotated to display synchronized variations. We see this method as one example of how cartographic design can refine or enhance operations in the space–time cube.     

GF-2支持下的干旱区稀疏植被区植被覆盖度估算

现有像元二分模型MODIS植被覆盖度模型因其形式简单、适用性较强的特点被广泛应用于区域植被覆盖度（FVC）的估算。然而,研究表明在沙漠和低植被覆盖的西部干旱区,从250 m的影像上很难精准地获取NDVI_veg（全植被覆盖植被指数）和NDVI_soil（全裸土区植被指数）参数。利用常用的直方图累计法获取模型所需参数NDVI_veg和NDVI_soil,估算结果存在普遍高估现象。为此,本文首先引入同期获取的GF-2号卫星数据,从GF-2号影像上提取植被覆盖像元;然后,利用Pixel Aggregate方法重采样至250 m分辨率,获取250 m空间分辨率下纯植被和纯裸土像元;最后,将纯植被和纯裸土像元各自空间位置相对应的MODIS NDVI数据最大值作为模型所需NDVI_veg和NDVI_soil参数,实现研究区内植被覆盖度的估算。试验通过与线性回归法、多项式回归法和直方图累计像元二分模型法估算结果进行精度对比,结果表明：利用GF-2影像辅助的像元二分模型,精准地获取了低植被覆盖区NDVI_veg和NDVI_soil模型参数,提高了干旱区植被覆盖度的估算精度,并有效地抑制了受稀疏植被影响NDVI在干旱区普遍偏高问题导致的FVC高估的现象。     

Re-examining urban region and inferring regional function based on spatial–temporal interaction

Urban system is shaped by the interactions between different regions and regions planned by the government, then reshaped by human activities and residents’ needs. Understanding the changes of regional structure and dynamics of city function based on the residents’ movement demand are important to evaluate and adjust the planning and management of urban services and internal structures. This paper constructed a probabilistic factor model on the basis of probabilistic latent semantic analysis and tensor decomposition, for purpose of understanding the higher order interactive population mobility and its impact on urban structure changes. First, a four-dimensional tensor of time (T)?×?week (W)?×?origin (O)?×?destination (D) was constructed to identify the day-to-day activities in three time modes and weekly regularity of weekday/weekend pattern. Then we reclassified the urban regions based on the space clustering formed by the space factor matrix and core tensor. Finally, we further analysed the space–time interaction on different time scales to deduce the actual function and connection strength of each region. Our research shows that the application of individual-based spatial–temporal data in human mobility and space–time interaction study can help to analyse urban spatial structure and understand the actual regional function from a new perspective.     

Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations

Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.