El Niño对东亚气候年际异常影响的数值模拟

根据1949~1998年期间8次显著El Niño事件合成的24个月年际海温异常(SSTAs)和气候平均的海温(SST),利用CCM3分别进行了3个包含10次积分的集合试验,即控制试验(CTRL),热带太平洋海洋全球大气试验(TOGA)以及整个太平洋海洋全球大气试验(TOGA-NP),通过对比分析这3个试验之间的集合模拟结果,揭示了在El Niño不同演变阶段东亚气候年际异常响应结构以及北太平洋年际SSTAs在此过程中的调制作用.结果表明:El Niño发展阶段夏季,东亚地区大气环流异常呈显著的负PJ波列,副热带高压减弱、偏东,东亚夏季风增强,东北和江淮流域降水偏多,华北和长江流域及其以南地区降水偏少;El Niño成熟阶段冬季,东亚大槽加强,东亚北部冬季风加强,西太平洋副热带地区低层有显著的反气旋式异常风场,华南地区降水显著增多;El Niño衰亡阶段夏季东亚气候年际异常型与其发展阶段夏季几乎相反.同时,北太平洋年际SSTAs对El Niño影响东亚气候年际异常有一定的调制作用,使模拟的我国降水异常分布更符合观测.     

冬季黄海暖流区的空间变化和年际变化特征

利用了多年连续的冬季水文调查数据,以黄海暖水舌作为黄海暖流的示性指标,采用经验函数正交分解及相关分析的方法,探讨了黄海暖流的年际变化特征,结果表明:1)黄海暖流的强弱存在4～7 a的年际变化周期,并与冬季局地季风的经向分量具有较好的相关关系;2)黄海暖流的流轴存在一个3～6 a的变化周期,而且其流轴的摆动明显受冬季季风纬向分量的影响;3)季风增强,黄海暖流增强且流轴西移.     

南海北部冬季和夏季逆风流机制初探Ⅱ.季风逆风流产生机制

分析讨论了季风风应力、大陆坡地形及底摩擦在产生季风逆风流的必要条件和间接逆风流诊断判据中的作用；应用季风逆风流必要条件和间接逆风流诊断判据，解释冬季风和夏季风逆风流是如何产生的。结果表明：季风风应力是产生季风逆风流的主导因素；冬季风风应力、大陆坡地形及底摩擦三者联合作用导致表层海水在大陆坡上产生辐合生成高水位带和高动力高度带，在大陆被北侧产生NE向的冬季逆风流，南侧产生SW向顺风流；夏季风风应力、大陆坡地形及底摩擦三者联合作用导致表层海水在大陆坡上产生辐散生成低水位带和低动力高度带，在大陆被北侧产生SW向的夏季逆风流，南侧产生NE向的顺风流；冬季风盛行期间，风致经巴士海峡流入南海的黑潮水，将加速冬季逆风流的形成，加大冬季逆风流的强度；夏季风盛行期间，风应力的作用使巴上海峡以东的黑潮水不能进入南海，即使别的原因令巴上海峡以东的黑潮水流入南海，但高温、高盐的黑潮水对夏季逆风流具有阻扼作用。     

晚更新世末期东亚季风活动与陆架区沉积环境变迁

从距今 18 0 0 0年的最后冰期最盛时期到距今 10 0 0 0年开始的全新世海侵 ,全球气侯发生过急剧的变化。位于亚洲东部的古季风活动也经历了盛衰变化。大量的钻孔及浅地层剖面分析资料已经证实 ,冰期最盛时期陆架区古季风活动加强 ,陆架出现了沙漠环境与黄土沉积。当冰期结束 ,气候转暖 ,冬季风减弱之际 ,南黄海陆架及长江三角洲一带的沙漠与黄土分布范围也随之缩小 ,原先的沙漠活动区变成了黄土分布区 ,也就是所谓硬粘土沉积区。随着古季风活动的进一步衰退和海面的不断升高 ,来自陆架区的东北风变为冷湿气流。长江三角洲地区和陆架上出现了有利于沼泽发育的环境 ,全新世海侵把泥炭层淹没。陆架区晚更新世末期以来的地层中出现沙层、硬粘土和泥炭层的沉积序列 ,即“三元沉积结构”,是古冬季风盛衰过程的最好记录     

1998年夏季季风爆发前后南海上层环流的诊断分析

基于1998年南海季风试验（SCSMEX，South China Sea Monsoon Experiment)期间2个强化观测航次（4－5月及6－7）所获温盐深（CTD）资料，利用一个改进逆模式研究了夏季季风爆发前后南海环流的演变特征。诊断计算表明，在此期间南海环流主要表现为两脊两槽型，即越南以东和菲律宾以西呈反气旋式环流，南海北部和南海中部呈气旋式环流。但对局部区域而言，可以发现在季风爆发前后其环流结构有明显的差异。上述计算结果亦与等压面上海水密度分布的定性分析结果及同期观测的ADCP资料进行了比较，结果表明模式计算所得到的南海上层环流主要特征与定性分析结果及实测资料大体一致，诊断结果可作为南海上层季风环流演变机制研究的依据。     

早上新世非洲季风与地中海表层生产力变化的岁差节律

地质历史上留下了许多反映非洲季风的记录, 意大利南方晚新生代的海相地层便是其中著名的一例.Cape Sper-tivento剖面位于意大利卡拉布里亚半岛, 属于早上新世(5.3~4.8Ma) 地中海泥灰岩-灰岩沉积物.在借鉴前人工作的基础上, 重新为该剖面建立一个精度更高的天文年代标尺.反映古生产力的指标显示, 早上新世在北半球夏季辐射量增大期间, 地中海有机碳含量及其堆积速率增大, C/N出现高值, 碳酸盐含量及其堆积速率减小, G. obliquus稳定氧碳同位素出现负偏移, 这是非洲夏季风带来的降雨增强的结果.尼罗河泛滥让更多陆源营养物和淡水输入地中海.各个古环境指标的频谱分析结果存在强烈的岁差周期和丰富的半岁差周期, 说明早上新世非洲季风主要受低纬过程控制.      

晚新生代黄土高原风尘序列的粒度和沉积速率与中国北方大气环流演变

文章以风尘沉积的粗粒和细粒组分与季风和西风环流的联系为基础,利用黄土高原中部的洛川剖面、西峰剖面和灵台剖面的粒度和沉积速率记录,讨论了晚新生代中国北方季风环流和西风环流的演变历史,总结了这一时期大气环流演变的基本规律和大气环流演变的动力机制.研究表明,自8～7Ma风尘沉积发育至5Ma左右,西风环流和季风环流都有减弱的趋势;自5Ma以来,西风环流和季风环流的强度都在逐步加强;与此同步,季风环流对风尘沉积的贡献增加,而西风环流对风尘的贡献逐渐减小,这一逐渐发展的大气环流趋势与北半球高纬冰盖的逐步发展有关;大气环流的这种趋势变化在8～7Ma,3.4Ma和1.2～0.9Ma这几个时期存在着突变,可能反映了青藏高原的阶段性隆升对中国北方季风环流演化的决定性作用以及对西风环流结构和强度的重要影响.中国北方大气环流在轨道尺度变化的基本特征是,低空季风环流在冰期加强,在间冰期减弱.西风环流和季风环流在冰期和间冰期的强度和格局可能主要与全球冰量的基本状况和青藏高原原面的性质有关.黄土高原的风尘记录在万年尺度和千年尺度的气候事件上都表现出相当明显的区域差异,可能主要与局部地形的大气环流效应有关.     

Sensitivity Study of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in 1998 to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes

In this study, the improved high-resolution regional climate model of the China National Climate Center (RegCM_NCC) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated circulation and rainfall during the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) period during 1998 in an effort to compare to other cumulus parameterization schemes. The investigation has indicated that the model is capable of simulating the seasonal march of the SCSSM and that the results were very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization schemes. It seems that the Kuo cumulus parameterization scheme simulates the process of the SCSSM onset reasonably well, which can reproduce the onset timing and dramatic changes before and after the onset, especially the upper- and lower-level wind-fields. However, there are still some discrepancies between the simulations and observations. For example, the model can not completely simulate the intensity of the rainfall or the location of the western Pacific subtropical high as well as the feature of the rapid northward propagation of seasonal rain belt.     

Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.     

Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Associated Atmospheric Circulations

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data from 1950-1999, interdecadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） and its associated atmospheric circulations are investigated. The EASM exhibits a distinct interdecadal variation, with stronger （weaker） summer monsoon maintained from 1950-1964 （1976-1997）. In the former case, there is an enhanced Walker cell in the eastern Pacific and an anti-Walker cell in the western Pacific. The associated ascending motion resides in the central Pacific, which flows eastward and westward in the upper troposphere, descending in the eastern and western ends of the Pacific basin. At the same time, an anomalous East Asian Hadley Cell （EAHC） is found to connect the low-latitude and mid-latitude systems in East Asia, which strengthens the EASM. The descending branch of the EAHC lies in the west part of the anti-Walker cell, flowing northward in the lower troposphere and then ascending at the south of Lake Baikal （40°-50°N, 95°- 115°E） before returning to low latitudes in the upper troposphere, thus strengthening the EASM. The relationship between the EASM and SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is also discussed. A possible mechanism is proposed to link interdecadal variation of the EASM with the eastern tropical Pacific SST. A warmer sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） therein induces anomalous ascending motion in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a weaker Walker cell, and at the same time inducing an anomalous Walker cell in the western Pacific and an enhanced EAHC, leading to a weaker EASM. Furthermore, the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation over North China is found to be the south of Lake Baikal through enhancing and reducing strongly regulated by the velocity potential over the regional vertical motions.