陕焦化甲醇生产项目雷击风险评估

为了使人工增雨更有针对性,需要在作业方案制定阶段就对未来影响天气系统有一个明确的判断,需要总结出一套适合山西省进行人工增雨作业的天气概念模型。为此,普查了1991年-2000年欧亚范围高空及地面天气图,筛选出影响山西省并产生降水的天气系统,加以分析归纳,建立了4种有利于山西省人工增雨作业的天气概念模型,即西风槽型、东北冷涡型、切变线型及副高型,并分别给出了未来12h～24h影响山西省的警戒区及最佳人工增雨作业区。     

Toothed whales in the northwestern Mediterranean: insight into their feeding ecology using chemical tracers

Risso’s dolphins, pilot whales and sperm whales rarely strand in the northwestern Mediterranean. Thus, their feeding ecology, through the analysis of stomach contents, is poorly known. The aim of this study was to gain further insight into the segregation/superposition of the diet and habitat of Risso’s dolphins, pilot whales and sperm whales using chemical tracers, namely, stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) and organochlorines. Significantly different δ¹⁵N values were obtained in Risso’s dolphins (11.7 ± 0.7‰), sperm whales (10.8 ± 0.3‰) and pilot whales (9.8 ± 0.3‰), revealing different trophic levels. These differences are presumably due to various proportions of Histioteuthidae cephalopods in each toothed whale’s diet. Similar δ¹³C contents between species indicated long-term habitat superposition or corroborated important seasonal migrations. Lower congener 180 concentrations (8.20 vs. 21.73 μg.g⁻¹ lw) and higher tDDT/tPCB ratios (0.93 vs. 0.42) were observed in sperm whales compared with Risso’s dolphins and may indicate wider migrations for the former. Therefore, competition between these species seems to depend on different trophic levels and migration patterns.     

Trend estimation and univariate forecast of the sunspot numbers: Development and comparison of ARMA, ARIMA and Autoregressive Neural Network models

In the present study, a prominent 11-year cycle, supported by the pattern of the autocorrelation function and measures of Euclidean distances, in the mean annual sunspot number time series has been observed by considering the sunspot series for the duration of 1749 to 2007. The trend in the yearly sunspot series, which is found to be non-normally distributed, is examined through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. A statistically significant increasing trend is observed in the sunspot series in annual duration. The results indicate that the performance of the autoregressive neural network-based model is much better than the autoregressive moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average-based models for the univariate forecast of the yearly mean sunspot numbers.     

Marine artificial micro‐reserves: a possibility for the conservation of endangered species living on artificial substrata

The installation of urban and commercial infrastructures on the coast has a severe impact on the marine environment. This impact is mostly negative but, simultaneously, some of the species that colonize artificial substrata (sometimes rare or threatened) find refuge in man‐made structures. The protection of endangered species is usually provided by marine protected areas or by laws that punish their damage or collection, but effective enclosure and custody must be achieved in the case of easily accessible intertidal species. We used the ferruginous limpet, Patella ferruginea, as a case study because it is the most endangered invertebrate in the Mediterranean. This species, which lives in the intertidal zone and is very accessible to people, is a free‐spawning, protandric hermaphrodite, highly dependent on population density and individual size for its reproductive success. Previous work by the authors found the species is especially abundant on artificial substrates on both shores of the Strait of Gibraltar, where people collect fewer of them. Spanish laws of coastal management do not allow the enclosure of the natural coastline, but artificial installations like harbour breakwaters may be closed or guarded, and visits for educational purposes may be carried out under control. The possibility of declaring some kind of environmental protection for these artificial areas would be a very helpful tool for conservation and management purposes. Protected individuals would grow larger and eventually produce exponentially more offspring, which could be transported by currents to adjacent habitats. Here we propose a protection concept for artificial sites termed Artificial Marine Micro‐Reserve (AMMR), where some endangered species experience a refuge from human disturbance. This concept is a modification of the land micro‐reserves that have been recently declared in small natural sites that keep rare plant species. A network of AMMRs would be the final objective, allowing the creation of a great metapopulation of P. ferruginea and also giving refuge to other endangered species that have been found to grow in this type of substratum. Critically, the declaration of a micro‐reserve cannot be used as a reason in favour of new construction because of the negative influence of such structures on the marine environment, together with the fact that there is no certainty that valuable species will settle on them.     

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.     

城市旅游开发规划研究进展评述

在总结国内旅游开发规划工作经验的基础上,从理论和实践两方面探讨了综合与整体规划、配套建设、滚动开发的操作模式以及当前旅游开发重点等,强调要突出旅游文化背景和旅游形象策划,并归纳了旅游开发规划需要研究的一系列问题。     

利用人工神经网络预测电离层F2层骚扰

利用人工神经网络技术，提出预报离散随机的电离层骚扰事件的新方案.本文重点讨论了预报电离层骚扰的人工神经网络的构造，采用模糊理论和模式识别的思想构造了网络的输入层和输出层.将与电离层骚扰相关的日面现象如太阳耀斑、黑子等的日面位置、强度等参量作为网络的输入，该方案预报结果检验中，使传统方法难以预报的小型和中型电离层(骚扰达到80%以上)的预报准确率有所提高.最后还提出了利用人工神经网络识别单一型别骚扰事件的方案，预报准确率在95%以上。     

人工增雨的社会效应和应采取的对策与措施

在分析 2000年人工增雨作业实践和所产生的社会、经济效益的基础上，提出我省人工影响天气减灾对策和应采取的服务措施，使人工影响天气科学能为城乡减灾作出更多的贡献。     

1975—1986年古田水库人工降雨效果总分析

本文对福建省古田水库地区1975—1986年人工降雨试验效果进行总评价.12年共进行244次随机试验,三种不同的统计分析方法(区域回归分析法、双比分析法和多元回归分析法)均表示122次催化平均相对增雨在20％左右,显著度高于5％水平.此外,按云型、天气条件、雷达回波顶温度分类统计,为选择有利作业条件提供科学依据.云和降水物理观测(冰核、雨水中银离子含量、雷达回波和雨滴谱)及数值模拟的工作,其结果为人工增雨统计结论提供某些初步物理学解释.     

应用测井资料自动确定沉积相的计算机程序

在没有取芯的情况下,设计了应用测井资料自动确定沉积相的计算机程序。该程序在测井岩性分析的基础上应用人工智能技术,对岩性剖面进行合理的岩性组合序列的自动划分,再将这种划分结果与已建立起来的沉积相模式进行统计比较,确定其所属的相类型,绘出一个完整而连续的相序剖面。文中以渤海辽东湾绥中36-1构造SZ36-1-5井为例,说明这一程序在应用测井资料自动确定沉积相方面具有较高的精度。