Study of Distinctive Regional Features of Surface Solar Radiation in North and East China

Solar radiation is an important energy source for plants on the earth and also a major component of the global energy balance.Variations in solar radiation incident at the earth's surface profoundly affect the human and terrestrial environment,including the climate change.To provide useful information for predicting the future climate change in China,distinctive regional features in spatial and temporal variations of the surface solar radiation (SSR) and corresponding attributions (such as cloud and aerosol) are analyzed based on SSR observations and other meteorological measurements in North and East China from 1961 to 2007.Multiple models,such as the plane-parallel radiative transfer model,empirical and statistical models,and corrclation and regrcssion analysis methods are used in the study.The results are given as follows.(1) During 1961-2007,the total SSR in North China went through a process from quickly “dimming” to slowly “dimming”,while in East China,a significant transition from “dimming” to “brightening” occurred.Although there are some differences between thc two regional variation trends,long-term variations in SSR in the two regions are basically consistent with the observation worldwide.(2) Between the 1960s and 1980s,in both North and East China,aerosols played a critical rolc in the radiation dimming.However,after 1989,different variation trends of SSR occurred in North and East China,indicating that aerosols were not the dominant factor.(3) Cloud cover contributed less to the variation of SSR in North China,but was thc major attribution in East China and played a promoting role in the reversal of SSR from dimming to brightening,especially in the “remarkable brightening” period,with its contribution as high as 70％.     

气候变化适应行动实施框架——宁夏农业案例实践

宁夏是我国生态脆弱区和贫困区之一,以宁夏为例开展农业适应行动实践具有一定的代表性和示范作用。根据气候变化适应行动实施框架,研究结果表明：宁夏未来气候干旱风险将增加,水资源短缺矛盾加剧,极端气候事件频率和强度加大。未来宁夏北部灌区农业应以发展节水灌溉和高效种植为主,中部以设施农业和牧业为主,南部以发展特色农业为主。气象部门和水利部门对适应技术的适应效果持乐观态度,农牧业部门和林业部门则态度谨慎。适应措施能否实施的首要条件是措施符合国家和地方的政策方针,其次是成本效益;在实施条件中,要求相对比较弱化的是公众对气候风险的认知程度以及措施的灵活调整性。在适应措施选择上,气象服务和种植结构调整成为首选的适应技术,而覆盖技术、节水技术由于更倾向于传统的技术范畴,虽然效果较好,但对其适应优先性选择存在影响。     

2009年冬季至2010年春季黑龙江省气温持续偏低成因

利用常规观测的温度资料和中国国家气候中心提供的环流特征量、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及美国气候预测中心（CPC）提供的AO指数等,分析了2009年11月至2010年4月中高纬大气环流异常特征,探讨了AO与同期气温的关系。分析表明：黑龙江省冬春气候异常与500 hPa大尺度环流背景有关。冬春持续偏冷,对应北半球欧亚中高纬地区呈“-+-”的波列分布,90°-180°E呈现出“北正南负”的环流形势;北半球极涡面积偏大,冬季东亚大槽位置偏西,春季东亚大槽强度偏强,冬春AO指数持续异常偏强,显著负位相。     

贵阳汛期旱涝演变特征及未来趋势预估

首先对贵阳近500 a（1470—2008年）旱涝等级资料进行增补,利用该资料进行等级序列展开频次和多尺度分析。结果表明：近58 a,贵阳出现极端旱、偏旱的频次明显高于过去近500 a的平均状况;汛期出现偏旱和旱的次数明显增多,旱重于涝的趋势非常明显。从年代际和百年际尺度看,210 a周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而50 a周期是次周期,且20世纪80年代的干旱程度高于历史上任何一个年代;从年际和年代际尺度上,24 a周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而7 a周期是次周期;汛期降水偏少,一般与旱灾对应一致,但若降水偏多,对应汛期各月降水分布均匀,则不一定对应涝灾。最后,结合诊断结果,借助IPCC AR4最新的模式预估数据集,预估贵阳汛期降水在未来10 a左右将处于旱涝交替频发期,之后至21世纪40年代中期将处于少雨阶段,可能会出现较长时期的干旱。     

中国各季节气候对热盐环流减弱的不同响应

使用CCSM3（community climate system model version 3）模式的＂淡水扰动试验＂结果,对热盐环流强度减弱后中国区域冬、夏气候的不同响应特征进行了研究。结果表明：CCSM3可较为准确地再现中国附近区域表面气温及降水量的量值和分布形态。当热盐环流年平均强度减弱约80%之后,中国区域冬、夏季的表面气温与降水量显著降低,但冬、夏季的降低幅度与空间分布形态存在显著的差异。冬季的降温幅度较大且分布较为一致,平均降温幅度可达2.2℃,最大的降温幅度可达4℃;夏季的降温幅度相对较小且南北差异较大,平均降温幅度为1.3℃,最大的降温幅度为3℃。冬、夏季降水量的降低幅度都在6%左右,但其成因及其分布形态都存在显著差异。     

Seasonal Prediction of Spring Dust Weather Frequency in Beijing

In this paper, seasonal prediction of spring dust weather frequency (DWF) in Beijing during 1982-2008 has been performed. First, correlation analyses are conducted to identify antecedent climate signals during last winter that are statistically significantly related to spring DWF in Beijing. Then, a seasonal prediction model of spring DWF in Beijing is established through multivariate linear regression analysis, in which the systematic error between the result of original prediction model and the observation, averaged over the last 10 years, is corrected. In addition, it is found that climate signals occurring synchronously with spring dust weather, particularly meridional wind at 850 hPa over western Mongolian Plateau, are also linked closely to spring DWF in Beijing. As such, statistical and dynamic prediction approaches should be combined to include these synchronous predictors into the prediction model in the real-time operational prediction, so as to further improve the prediction accuracy of spring DWF in Beijing, even over North China. However, realizing such a prediction idea in practice depends essentially on the ability of climate models in predicting key climate signals associated with spring DWF in Beijing.     

太原市温度的时空变化特征

利用太原市1951年-2010年的实测气象资料,采用线性趋势分析、累计距平、Mann—Kendall方法,分析了太原市年均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、02时平均气温、14时平均气温的变化趋势。得出了太原市总体上呈现增暖趋势,从1977年开始出现了显著增温;夜间气温增温幅度高于白天增温幅度,冬季增温幅度高于夏季增温幅度;最低平均气温的增温幅度最大等结论。     

2009 年我国汛期降水形势总结与三个常用模式预报效果检验

利用实况24小时降水、形势场资料及T213、T639、Japan模式降水、形势场的预报资料,对2009年汛期(5-9月,下同)中国降水时空分布进行分析,并对T213、T639、Japan三个常用模式对2009年汛期的天气形势、降水及其影响系统的预报做主客观检验,以期得出2009年汛期降水分布特点及三个模式的降水预报效果对比.结果表明:(1) 2009年汛期华南地区降水量为全国之最,长江中下游和西南东部地区其次,东北和华北地区再次.(2)从TS评分看,Japan模式的小雨～大雨量级评分较高,T639模式暴雨～大暴雨量级评分较高；T213模式对华北地区暴雨、大暴雨量级降水预报评分高于Japan和T639模式.(3)从降水预报偏差看,T213模式对华北预报明显偏强,T639模式对华北预报强度较为适中,两模式对其他区域中等以下强度降水预报偏强,对强降水预报偏弱；T639对中等以下强度降水预报偏强程度明显小于T213,而对强降水除华南和东北区域外,预报偏弱程度明显大于T213；Japan模式预报偏差随降水量级增大而减小,对大雨以上各量级预报均明显偏弱,且偏弱程度明显大于T213、 T639.(4)由代表性形势场预报检验结果可知,除T213对500hPa高度场、850hPa温度场预报效果好于其他两模式外,各模式预报效果相差不大.(5)三个模式对500 hPa副高总体预报偏东、偏北、偏强,但Japan预报效果明显好于T213、T639.(6) T639模式对台风和低涡的预报相对较好,T213较差.     

Use of a watershed hydrologic model to estimate interbasin groundwater flow in a Costa Rican rainforest

The watershed hydrologic model TOPMODEL was used to estimate interbasin groundwater flow (IGF) into a small lowland rainforest watershed in Costa Rica. IGF is a common hydrological process but often difficult to quantify. Four‐year simulations (2006–2009) using three different model approaches gave estimates of IGF that were very similar to each other (10.1, 10.2, and 9.8 m/year) and to an earlier estimate (10.0 m/year) based on 1998–2002 data from a budget study that did not use a hydrologic simulation model, providing confidence in the new estimates and suggesting each of the three model approaches is viable. Results show no significant temporal variation in IGF during 2006–2009 (or between this period and the earlier study from 1998–2002). Simulations of the 16 consecutive 3‐month periods in 2006–2009 gave 16 values of IGF rate with a mean (10.1 m/year, standard deviation = 0.6 m/year) very similar to the estimates above from the 4‐year simulations. This suggests the modified version of TOPMODEL can be used to model stream discharge and estimate IGF for sub‐annual time periods during which change in water storage is not necessarily equal to zero. Thus, simple watershed models may be used to estimate IGF based on even relatively short calibration periods, making such models useful tools in the study of this widespread hydrological process that affects water and chemical fluxes and budgets but is often difficult and costly to quantify. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gamma Emitters on Micro-Becquerel Activity Level in Air at Kraków (Poland)

The Petryanov air filters combined into half-year sets were analyzed for the presence of ⁴⁰K, ¹³⁷Cs and ²²Na by means of low-background gamma rays spectrometry. Each sample contains aerosols from more than 1 Mm³ of air. Samples were collected in ground level air at Kraków (Southern Poland) from 1996 to 2002. Activity concentrations of ⁴⁰K are almost constant with the mean of 14.7± 4.5 Bq m^–3. Activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, which are on the level of single Bq m^{– 3} show exponential decrease with effective half-life time of 7.07± 0.77 years. The cosmogenic ²²Na shows a strong seasonal variation with significant different mean values activity concentration between 0.333± 0.095 Bq m^–3 and 0.137± 0.045 Bq m^–3, for summer and winter, respectively. Moreover, the activity ratio for two cosmogenic radionuclides: ²²Na and measured previously ⁷Be show also changes with statistically significant seasonal differences. The lower values were found during winters. The mechanisms which might govern this ratio are discussed. The conclusion is that transport of ²²Na during summer seems to be so much effective, that results in kind of relative depletion of stratosphere of this nuclide.