构造控制型天然气水合物矿藏及其特征

构造环境是天然气水合物富集成藏的重要控制因素,增生楔、断裂体系、褶皱、(泥)底辟、滑塌等特殊构造体是影响天然气水合物成藏的主要地质载体。通过对这些特殊构造体与天然气水合物成藏关系的研究,结合流体活动对水合物形成的影响,总结出陆缘地区有增生楔型、盆缘斜坡型、埋藏背斜型、断褶型、滑塌型及底辟型等六类构造控制型水合物矿藏。南海位于欧亚板块、太平洋板块及印澳板块的交汇处,早期为活动陆缘,晚期演化为被动陆缘,其构造活动具有早期张裂、后期挤压的特点,这既不同于被动陆缘,也有别于活动陆缘,可视为“复合型”大陆边缘,兼具了“被动陆缘沉积速率高、活动陆缘构造活跃”的优点,从而形成了“增生楔型、断褶型、底辟型、滑塌型、盆缘斜坡型”等多种构造控制型水合物矿藏,是“复合型”大陆边缘水合物成藏地质模式的典型代表。     

南海热带气旋路径集合预报试验

利用3种不同模式的初始资料，通过它们生成得到16个不同的初始场，分别对2004年南海及其周边地区9个热带气旋个例进行集合预报试验，最后筛选得到了7个南海热带气旋初值集合成员，由此初步探讨了南海热带气旋初值集合成员的生成方法。结果表明，采用不同模式的初始资料生成得到初值集合成员的方法用于集合预报，对南海热带气旋路径预报有一些明显的改进。     

一种多前缘多阈值的波形重构算法

为了改善近海测高精度,本文对近海测高波形的特征进行了研究,并在现有算法的基础上提出基于波前缘识别算法的多前缘多阈值波形重构方法.然后将该方法用于中国近海的卫星测高波形数据的处理,得到精度与分辨率更好的海面高数据.作为验证,将此海面高数据换算为重力异常并与船测重力进行比较,结果显示该方法可以明显提高卫星测高精度.     

南海含天然气水合物地层地震反射特征及可能分布研究

天然气水合物是当前能源与环境领域的研究热点之一,南中国海是天然气水合物赋存的有利区域。天然气水合物的存在改变了沉积地层的声学特征,这一性质使多道地震勘探成为发现海洋天然气水合物的主要手段。本文首先根据地震成像结果定性分析南海可能含天然气水合物沉积地层的地震反射特征,初步确定天然气水合物存在的可能性并指出地震成像关键技术。在无井条件下,构建虚拟井进行波阻抗反演得到定量的地层速度参数进一步证实这一可能性,最后将反演获得的速度场与ODP184 航次在此区域获得的地球物理、地球化学信息综合分析,可以确定此区域天然气水合物的存在及其空间展布。     

Seismicity of the northernmost part of the Red Sea (1995–1999)

Seismicity in the northernmost part of the Red Sea has been studied using data from Hurghada Seismological Network in addition to readings from the existing neighbouring networks. Relocated events in addition to data from national centers are used to obtain a complete and true picture for the seismicity of the area. The spatial distribution of earthquakes defines three earthquake zones in the Gulf of Aqaba and three zones at the entrance of the Gulf of Suez and southern tip of Sinai Peninsula. The thermal activity and the triple junction nature control the activity in this area. The activity defines also an active trend extending from the southern tip of Sinai Peninsula to the median zone of the Red Sea. The seismicity of this trend is probably related to the active spreading zone associated with the opening of the Red Sea. The b-values are derived for the entrance areas of the two gulfs and for Gulf of Aqaba. Values of b are 1.35 for the triple junction region, 1.13 for the activity before the 22 November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba mainshock and 1.25 for the aftershocks of this event.     

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.     

Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century

The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807–2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level rise during the last decade compared to the global estimations of about 1.8 mm/year over longer periods (Douglas, J Geophys Res 96:6981–6992, 1991). The onset of the relatively large global sea level trends observed in the twentieth century is an important question in the science of climate change. Our findings point out to an ‘inflexion point’ at around 1890, which is remarkably close to that in 1880 found in the Liverpool record by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b).     

Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost

In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.     

Threat level green: Conceding ecology for security in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the predicted scenarios of Central Asian water wars and catastrophic nuclear accidents have failed to materialize. However, the Aral Sea continues to shrink apace, and dangerous Soviet-built nuclear reactors have since proliferated in the former eastern bloc. These seemingly paradoxical outcomes can in part be attributed to the framing of these environmental issues as security matters by leading international regulatory, aid and lending institutions. Integrating these environmental concerns with the realist worldview of security studies systematically emphasized security dimensions at the expense of ecological concerns even amongst organizations distant from traditional defense affairs. This article proposes that international security strategy in this period is one of environmental appeasement defined as the systematic granting of ecologically unfriendly concessions in order to reduce short-term security risks. The article presents evidence that this appeasement strategy generated seemingly impressive results in terms of ameliorating short-term security risks, while actually exacerbating the underlying ecological situation. The article argues that while the foundational environmental risks remain unaddressed, the associated security threats have likewise not been ultimately resolved.     

天然气水合物资源量估算方法及应用

近年大量的勘探与研究成果表明,中国南海海域具有良好的水合物资源前景.根据所掌握的勘探资料,尝试利用"概率统计法"对南海海域水合物资源前景进行了初步预测,在50%概率的条件下,南海海域的水合物资源量约为649.68×1011m3,与众多学者对全球天然气水合物资源量的估算相似.由于目前勘探程度较低和很多评价参数不能准确给定,因此对南海海域天然气水合物资源量的估算是初步的.该项研究旨在探索天然气水合物资源量的评估方法,随着勘探、研究程度的深入和评价资料的增多,水合物资源量的评价精度将会得到进一步的提高.