应用MJO制作长江流域月降水预测的试验研究

用MJO指数RMM1、RMM2、振幅 1—25日平均代替月平均,用上月月平均RMM1和RMM2、振幅构造为右场,下月长江流域降水场为左场,SVD分析两场的关联,借助最优化技术,在降水场预测距平与实况距平同号总站数最大意义下确定系数,建立估计公式,由右场时间系数估计左场时间系数,最后反演降水场。尽管多数的月第一模态相关并不显著,但实际预测效果较好。     

干、湿环境下中尺度对流系统发生的环流背景和地面特征分析

对2007～2010 年暖季(6～9 月)发生在江淮和黄淮流域46 个对流天气过程的环流背景和地面特征进行了统计研究。根据整层可降水量小于或大于等于50 mm 将这些个例发生的环境分成干环境(10 个个例)和湿环境(36 个个例)。干环境下发生强对流的天气形势可以分为槽后型和副高边缘型,湿环境下的天气形势可分为槽前型、副高边缘型和槽后型,湿环境下有明显的暖湿区配合。湿环境下槽前型发生的概率最高,地面系统较为复杂,有静止锋、倒槽、冷锋和暖锋,而干环境下在本研究的个例中无槽前型发生。干、湿环境下副高边缘型的对流,从地面到500 hPa 都发生在副高后部的“S”流型的拐弯处,但部分湿环境个例低层有切变线。干环境下槽后型的发生概率较高,而湿环境下发生概率则相对较少。由这些研究表明,干、湿环境下强对流系统的触发和维持机制存在明显的差异。     

Seasonal inundation patterns in two large savanna floodplains of South America: the Llanos de Moxos (Bolivia) and the Llanos del Orinoco (Venezuela and Colombia)

Inundation patterns in two of the largest savanna floodplains of South America were studied by analysis of the 37‐GHz polarization difference observed by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (Nimbus‐7 satellite). Flooded area was estimated at monthly intervals for January 1979 through to August 1987 using mixing models that account for the major landscape units with distinctive microwave emission characteristics. Results are presented separately for five subregions in each of the two floodplain regions to show the spatial as well as temporal variability in inundation patterns. The total area inundated during the 9 years varied between 2069 and 78 460 km² in the Llanos de Moxos (also spelled as Mojos; median area, 23 383 km²) and 1278 and 105 454 km² in the Llanos del Orinoco (median, 25 374 km²), not including the open‐water area of permanent lakes and river channels. The correlation between flooded area and river stage was used to extend the inundation records over a 30‐year period in the Moxos (1967–97) and a 58‐year period (1927–85) in the Orinoco. Interannual variability in inundation is greater in the Moxos than the Orinoco. Comparison of these data, however, with a previously published analysis of the Pantanal wetland shows that inundation patterns in these two floodplain regions are not as variable across years as they are in the Pantanal. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Problems of the aquatic environment and countermeasures in the rapid economic development in the Zhujiang River Delta

The Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta is the rapid economic development region in China since the opening and reform door policy was carried out in 1978. Being the rapid development of industry and city, the impact on the aquatic environmental quality was significant. The pollution caused the water quality descended and the ecological system degraded, and also impeded the economic development. The characteristics and problems of the aquatic environment are: the capacity of aquatic environment is large but hasn’t been utilized rationally, the water quality is influenced by saline sea water and tide current, the main pollutants are organic matter and the pollution is going heavier, the concentration of pollutants change seasonally. The countermeasures of aquatic environmental protection are: carrying out the environmental functional regionalization and controlling the total amount of pollutant discharge, revising the industrial structure and making a rational industrial arrangement, raising the rate of waste water treatment and making a full assessment of the water conservancy project.     

Flood magnification on the River Rhine

Flooding on the German Rhine during the 20th century was tested for trends and assessed to identify causal mechanisms driving worsening of flooding. A review of previous research outlines the range of impacts due to climate change, land‐use shifts, and river regulation. Analysis of hydrologic data, especially of the long record at Cologne, documents statistically significant increases in both flood magnitudes and frequencies. Specific‐gauge analysis, which isolates the effects of channel modification, documents that 20th century river engineering has caused little of the observed increase in flooding on the German Rhine. Precipitation records from the Rhine basin confirm that flood magnification has been driven by upstream factors, including an increase in flood‐producing precipitation of roughly 25% during the past 100 years and increases in runoff yields. In addition, agricultural land‐use records suggest that flood magnification can be partially explained by 20th century trends documenting intensification and industrialization of German agriculture. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short‐term spatial and temporal patterns of suspended sediment transfer in proglacial channels,small River Glacier,Canada

Alpine glacial basins are a significant source and storage area for sediment exposed by glacial retreat. Recent research has indicated that short‐term storage and release of sediment in proglacial channels may control the pattern of suspended sediment transfer from these basins. Custom‐built continuously recording turbidimeters installed on a network of nine gauging sites were used to characterize spatial and temporal variability in suspended sediment transfer patterns for the entire proglacial area at Small River Glacier, British Columbia, Canada. Discharge and suspended sediment concentration were measured at 5 min intervals over the ablation season of 2000. Differences in suspended sediment transfer patterns were then extracted using multivariate statistics (principal component and cluster analysis). Results showed that each gauging station was dominated c. 80% of days by diurnal sediment transfer patterns and ‘low’ suspended sediment concentrations. ‘Irregular’ transfer patterns were generally associated with ‘high’ sediment concentrations during snowmelt and rainfall events, resulting in the transfer of up to 70% of the total seasonal suspended sediment load at some gauging stations. Suspended sediment enrichment of up to 600% from channel storage release and extrachannel inputs occurred between the glacial front and distal proglacial boundary. However, these patterns differed significantly between gauging stations as determined by the location of the gauging station within the catchment and meteorological conditions. Overall, the proglacial area was the source for up to 80% of the total suspended sediment yield transferred from the Small River Glacier basin. These results confirmed that sediment stored and released in the proglacial area, in particular from proglacial channels, was controlling suspended sediment transfer patterns. To characterize this control accurately requires multiple gauging stations with high frequency monitoring of suspended sediment concentration. Accurate characterization of this proglacial control on suspended sediment transfer may therefore aid interpretation of suspended sediment yield patterns from glacierized basins. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河三角洲农牧业生产潜力

本文从对黄河三角洲的宜农地和宜牧地的分析入手,对该区农作物生产潜力、牧草及载畜量潜力进行了探讨。并针对目前农牧业生产水平和存在的问题,提出了相应的对策。     

QUANTITATIVE MODELING OF SUSPENDED SEDIMENT IN MIDDLE CHANGJIANG RIVER FROM MODIS

1INTRODUCTIONThe quality of water is traditionally determined by col-lectingwatersamplesandanalyzingthesamplesin a lab-oratory. However, sampling is very much hard sledding,time-consuming, slow and expensive, and easily in thecontrol of weather conditions, and does not include allwater areas. Satellite estimates of water quality havefound widespread application. Remote sensing instru-ments have been applied in water quality monitoringwith varying success (DANA and RICHARD, 1999;RUDD…     

Interannual and seasonal variation of the Huanghe (Yellow River) water discharge over the past 50 years: Connections to impacts from ENSO events and dams

The Huanghe, the second largest river in China, is now under great pressure as a water resource. Using datasets of river water discharge, water consumption and regional precipitation for the past 50 years, we elucidate some connections between decreasing water discharges, global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anthropogenic impacts in the drainage basin. Global ENSO events, which directly affected the regional precipitation in the river basin, resulted in approximately 51% decrease in river water discharge to the sea. The degree of anthropogenic impacts on river water discharge is now as great as that of natural influences, accelerating the water losses in the hydrological cycle. The large dams and reservoirs regulated the water discharge and reduced the peak flows by storing the water in the flood season and releasing it in the dry season as needed for agricultural irrigation. Thus, as a result, large dams and reservoirs have shifted the seasonal distribution patterns of water discharge and water consumption and finally resulted in rapidly increasing water consumption. Meanwhile, the annual distribution pattern of water consumption also changed under the regulation of dams and reservoirs, indicating that the people living in the river basin consume the water more and more to suit actual agricultural schedule rather than depending upon natural pattern of annual precipitation. The combination of the increasing water consumption facilitated by the dams and reservoirs and the decreasing precipitation closely associated with the global ENSO events over the past half century has resulted in water scarcity in this world-famous river, as well as in a number of subsequent serious results for the river, delta and coastal ocean.     

Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin,Oregon

Stream temperature is a complex function of energy inputs including solar radiation and latent and sensible heat transfer. In streams where groundwater inputs are significant, energy input through advection can also be an important control on stream temperature. For an individual stream reach, models of stream temperature can take advantage of direct measurement or estimation of these energy inputs for a given river channel environment. Understanding spatial patterns of stream temperature at a landscape scale requires predicting how this environment varies through space, and under different atmospheric conditions. At the landscape scale, air temperature is often used as a surrogate for the dominant controls on stream temperature. In this study we show that, in regions where groundwater inputs are key controls and the degree of groundwater input varies in space, air temperature alone is unlikely to explain within-landscape stream temperature patterns. We illustrate how a geologic template can offer insight into landscape-scale patterns of stream temperature and its predictability from air temperature relationships. We focus on variation in stream temperature within headwater streams within the McKenzie River basin in western Oregon. In this region, as in other areas of the Pacific Northwest, fish sensitivity to summer stream temperatures continues to be a pressing environmental issue. We show that, within the McKenzie, streams which are sourced from deeper groundwater reservoirs versus shallow subsurface flow systems have distinct summer temperature regimes. Groundwater streams are colder, less variable and less sensitive to air temperature variation. We use these results from the western Oregon Cascade hydroclimatic regime to illustrate a conceptual framework for developing regional-scale indicators of stream temperature variation that considers the underlying geologic controls on spatial variation, and the relative roles played by energy and water inputs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.