Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene precipitation changes in southern Patagonia

Holocene variations in annual precipitation (P_ann) were reconstructed from pollen data from southern Argentinian Patagonia using a transfer function developed based on a weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. The pollen–climate calibration model consisted of 112 surface soil samples and 59 pollen types from the main vegetation units, and modern precipitation values obtained from a global climate database. The performance (r² = 0.517; RMSEP = 126 mm) of the model was comparable or slightly lower than in other comparable pollen–climate models. Fossil pollen data were obtained from a sediment core from Cerro Frias site (50°24'S, 72°42'W) located at the forest-steppe ecotone. Reconstructed P_ann values of about 200 mm suggest dry conditions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (12,500–10,500 cal yr BP). P_ann values were about 300–350 mm from 10,500 to 8000 cal yr BP and increased to 400–500 mm between 8000 and 1000 cal yr BP. An abrupt decrease in P_ann at about 1000 cal yr BP was associated with a Nothofagus decline. The reconstructed P_ann suggests a weakening and southward shift of the westerlies during the early Holocene and intensification, with no major latitudinal shifts, during the mid-Holocene at high latitudes in southern Patagonia.     

ESEP3.0专家系统在新疆年度地震形势预测中的应用检验

使用2000—2003年度新疆地震局震情研究报告中的资料建立异常证据文件,应用ESEP3．0专家系统进行了推理预测,将其中的1年以内的预测意见与这4年新疆“震情研究报告”的预测意见及实际发生的地震情况进行了对比,并按中国地震局制定的“地震预报评分办法”进行了评分,最后认为：ESEP3．0专家系统目前可以用于新疆的年度地震趋势和地震危险区预测。     

Understanding the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin: Part 1—Rainfall

This is the first of two papers that describe the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB) (1,140,000 km²) in central Australia and compares some key characteristics with those observed from arid regions globally. This paper concentrates on annual rainfall, whereas the second paper is devoted to streamflow. The first part describes the LEB's climate (arid to semi-arid), which is dominated by a subtropical high pressure ridge stretching latitudinally across central Australia. Then follow major analyses that include the characteristics of rainfall, wet and dry spell lengths and cumulative surpluses and deficiencies, rainfall trends and intra- and inter-decadal fluctuations, and the relationship between rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The paper concludes with six conclusions, the key ones being: the variability of the annual rainfall (based on the coefficient of variation) in the LEB is approximately 60% greater than that found for stations located in arid regions in the rest of the world; there is a bias towards longer lengths of dry years than observed in the rest of Australia; and, there is a significant lag correlation between rainfall and ENSO, particularly in the east and in the latter part of a year.     

A statistical method for varve verification using seasonal pollen deposition

We developed a fast, inexpensive, statistically rigorous method of varve verification that uses prospective varve layer-splitting and seasonal pollen deposition. This method can be used on any sediment that contains seasonally deposited pollen, and avoids the need for radio-isotopic, optical, or thermoluminescence dating. The method uses a χ² test and non-parametric regression, together with recorded plant bloom times from pollen traps, to assess the differences in pollen abundances in light/dark (i.e. summer/winter-spring) sediment layers. A statistical test is required because such seasonally deposited data are inherently noisy, with a low signal-to-noise ratio. To illustrate this approach, visible laminations of Lake Mina, Minnesota, USA, were assessed in two separate regions of a core spanning 900 years. Results show that the laminations were deposited annually.     

山西地区小震活动年频次分布特征研究

对山西地区1970年至2008年的小震年频次分布用Klomogorov-Smirnov分布检验法进行检验,得出,山西地区的年频次累计次数与年频次有类似G-R的关系;由年频次分布随时间的变化关系分析,山西带及其北、中、南三个区域在中强震前,小震年频次的峰度、偏度、标准差、CV值、bm值等统计函数均表现出明显的变化。     

年度土地变更调查新机制之探索

介绍了武汉市土地变更调查的历史沿革情况,通过对新旧机制的对比以及分析新机制存在的问题,从而对变更调查新机制进行了探索研究。     

克孜尔水库跨断层形变年变特征分析

通过对克孜尔水库跨断层形变特征进行分析,结果显示:①垂直形变每年3～4月、10～11月分别为峰、谷值时间;水平形变每年6～7月、1月分别为峰、谷值时间.②垂直变形的峰-谷时间间隔在1997年之前多为5～8个月,1998年后多为1～3个月;谷-峰值时间间隔在1997年前多为4～7个月,1998年后多在8～11个月.水平形...     

首都圈地区卫星热红外亮温变化特征研究

利用1999年和2003-2006年共5年的NOAA卫星热红外遥感数据,对北京及周边地区的热红外影像特征和红外亮温年变特征进行了跟踪观测、统计分析与对比研究.结果表明:①不同地质构造单元,特别是线性断裂构造在热红外影像上有清晰的显示,通过不同时期红外影像的对比研究可以很好地揭示断裂构造的空间展布及规模形态,为活动构造研...     

Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2010 with magnitude M_W ⩾ 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1° longitude X 1° latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M_W 6.0 in the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M_W 8.0 in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra–Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region.     

北半球环状模和东北冷涡与我国东北夏季降水关系分析

利用国家气象信息中心提供的1951～2004年全国160个测站月平均降水资料和欧洲中心提供的ERA-40再分析资料,对近50多年东北地区夏季降水、东北冷涡与前期北半球环状模和海温的关系进行了统计分析,定义了一个夏季(6～8月)东北冷涡强度指数(NECVI)。结果表明:NECVI能够较好表征东北低涡的气候效应;夏季东北冷涡强度与降水存在显著的正相关,东北冷涡强年,降水偏多,前期2月北半球环状模(NAM)偏弱;东北冷涡偏弱年,降水偏少,前期2月NAM偏强。此外,夏季东北冷涡与前期的中国近海海温存在显著的负相关,前期NAM和中国近海海温的异常可以作为夏季东北冷涡异常的一个前兆信号,进而为东北地区夏季降水异常的预测提供参考依据。