晋5-1井水位年变动态分析

文章对晋5-1井水位正常的年变动态、影响因素、动态特征的生成机理等几方面进行分析,进一步找出引起年变动态畸变的原因。为正确合理运用观测资料进行日常监测、地震预报提供依据。     

Study on ann-based multi-step prediction model of short-term climatic variation

In the context of 1905-1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of establishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996-2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region through mean generating function and artificial neural network in combination. Results show that the established model yields mean error of 0.45℃ for their absolute values of annual mean temperature from 10 yearly independent samples (1986-1995) and the difference between the mean predictions and related measurements is 0.156℃. The developed model is found superior to a mean generating function regression model both in historical data fitting and independent sample prediction.     

Interannual Sea Level Variations and Annual Tides in the Northwestern Pacific

Specific properties of the interannual sea level variations and annual tides in the Northwestern Pacific were studied. Several tide stations were monitored. The monthly mean sea level for the year of 1995 was analyzed at each tide station. A seismic event in 1995, some tectonic activity around the subject area, and the Kuroshio (the oceanic western boundary current) may possibly contaminate results which would have occurred from the astronomical annual tide alone.     

河北兴济台地电阻率年变特征分析

基于电测深曲线反演结果,利用地电阻率转换函数的递推公式定量模拟分析了地下水位对兴济台地电阻率的影响。结果表明,地下水位下降会造成地电阻率上升,这与兴济台N30°E向的地电阻率观测结果相符;N60°W向的地电阻率的趋势变化与N30°E向的相反,且年变幅较大,这是由于测区供电极和测量极之间存在因取土而积水成坑这个局部异常体引起的。     

北京地区上空OH转动温度的季节性变化

在北京东北方向的兴隆天文台,自主搭建的大气辐射观测仪器对OH夜气辉从2011年12月开始进行观测.利用高分辨率的OH(8-3)带的振转光谱计算了转动温度,并与TIMED/SABER探测的温度进行了比较.观测表明,两年(2012—2013)的OH(8-3)带转动温度平均值为203.0±11.2K,有明显的季节变化,冬季高,夏季低,温差可达60K.与SABER观测温度的季节变化一致.对日平均的转动温度进行年振荡和半年振荡分量的拟合分析表明,年振荡强度(10.8K)远大于半年振荡(2.7K).研究还发现,不同夜晚转动温度变化形态差别很大,既有很强的潮汐控制的波动,又有相对短周期的波动.     

‘Growth rings’ in crustose lichens: Comparison with directly measured growth rates and implications for lichenometry

Some species of crustose lichens, such as Ochrolechia parella (L.) Massal., exhibit concentric marginal rings, which may represent an alternative technique of measuring growth rates and potentially, a new lichenometric dating method. To examine this hypothesis, the agreement and correlation between ring widths and directly measured annual radial growth rates (RaGR, mm a⁻¹) were studied in 24 thalli of O. parella in north Wales, UK, using digital photography and image analysis. Variation in ring width was observed at different locations around a thallus, between thalli, and from year to year. The best agreement and correlation between ring width and lichen growth rates was between mean width of the outer two rings (measured in 2011) and mean RaGR (in 2009/10). The O. parella data suggest that mean width of the youngest two growth rings, averaged over a sample of thalli, is a predictor of recent growth rates and therefore could be used in lichenometry. Potential applications include as a convenient method of comparing lichen growth rates on surfaces in different environmental settings; and as an alternative method of constructing lichen growth-rate curves, without having to revisit the same lichen thalli over many years. However, care is needed when using growth rings to estimate growth rates as: growth ring widths may not be stable; ring widths exhibit spatial and temporal variation; rings may not represent 1-year's growth in all thalli; and adjacent rings may not always represent successive year's growth.     

辽宁阜新井水温破年变与加速下降原因分析

阜新井水温于2015年8月出现破年变变化,至2016年3月水温出现加速下降现象,最大降幅达7.2‰℃,距水温井约16m处的体应变井辅助水位亦出现同步下降变化。通过对水温井观测系统、区域地质特征和周边环境等进行调查发现,水温井东北约1km处的新打深水井大量抽水可能是造成水温及水位下降变化的原因。将新井抽水时间与阜新井水温及其他前兆测项观测数据进行对比分析,结果显示水温、体应变和钻孔水位等数据的变化与新打井在成因、空间、时间和强度上都存在明显的相关性。故阜新井水温及辅助水位同步变化为附近新井抽水干扰所致,排除为地震前兆异常的可能。     

2015年内蒙古阿拉善MS5.8地震前地电阻率变化特征研究

本文讨论了2015年内蒙古阿拉善M_S5.8地震前500 km范围内6个台的地电阻率变化, 得到如下结论: ① 石嘴山、 银川、 海原、 固原等台站震前1年半左右出现了较明显的趋势下降变化, 尤其以距离震中最近的石嘴山台下降幅度最大。 ② 利用年变畸变方法分析了石嘴山、 银川、 海原、 固原台的电阻率震前几年的年度变化发现几个台震前均发生了年变化畸变现象。 ③ 几个台地电阻率原始小时值的均方差在震前1~3月内均同时出现了大幅度突跳现象。     

海洋空间利用年度计划制度的提出与体系构建探讨

海洋空间利用年度计划是自然资源部“三定”职责之一,是应对海洋空间资源短缺、空间利用效率低、海洋资源环境损害等的有效措施。生态文明体制改革以来,国家进一步加强对自然资源的总量和规模控制,强化自然岸线保有率的约束作用,重视国土空间整治修复和围填海历史遗留问题处置。基于以上自然资源管理改革精神,研究提出了海洋空间利用年度计划的概念,结合海域使用分类对海洋空间利用年度计划的管控类型进行了判别和分析,并构建了海洋空间利用年度计划的指标体系。