中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

目前确定地震活动性参数的方法有2种,即潜在震源区划分法和格点空间光滑法.本文针对格点空间光滑法,重点介绍了高斯空间光滑法及其改进后的方法,并对比分析了这些方法的优缺点及适用性;然后以华中为研究区,分别采用高斯空间光滑法和潜在震源区法建立地震活动性模型计算地震年平均发生率,并利用概率地震危险性分析方法计算地震危险性,对比两种方法所得区划结果的差异并分析了引起差异的原因.结果表明:空间光滑法适用于中强地震活动区地震危险性或由背景地震引起的地震危险性的计算;潜在震源区划分法适用于考虑明确的发震构造的地震危险性.将2种方法相结合,综合考虑地震和已知构造信息是判断中强地震活动区地震危险性的可行方法.     

中间层顶变化的 SABER/TIMED 卫星观测

本文利用TIMED卫星搭载的SABER探测仪对全球中间层顶信息进行了研究,包括中间层顶的高度、温度及其季节和纬度变化,并对双中间层顶现象进行了分析.中间层顶的温度约在160～180 K之间变化,高度在85～ 100 km内变化,温度和高度都是冬季高夏季低,有着较为一致的变化趋势.中间层顶高纬呈现显著年变化,而低纬和赤道呈现弱的半年变化,南北半球的中间层顶信息有着不对称性.高纬地区的双中间层顶现象十分显著,中间层顶一般会从100 km附近迅速降低至85 km附近.根据长时间范围内平均的结果显示,北半球的双中间层顶现象在20°N—30°N的中纬范围开始发生,证实了北半球双中间层顶现象不再仅限于极区和中高纬地区.而南半球则仍是在50°S才显著发生双中间层顶现象.我们统计了中高纬地区夏季所有的单个观测剖面并且与当年冬季的平均背景剖面相比较,数据显示,较低的夏季第二中间层顶高度绝大多数比冬季中间层顶低12～16 km.     

2013年芦山MS7.0地震前甘孜台地电阻率变化分析

甘孜台地电阻率N30°E测道观测资料自2011年7月开始出现趋势上升变化,N60°W测道地电阻率则从2012年出现趋势上升变化.2011年测区原317国道实施扩建工程,N30°E测道测量电极分别向供电极方向移动10m.采用甘孜台电测深曲线以水平层状模型反演了测区的电性结构,理论计算表明,测量电极的移动将会引起N30°E测道4Ω·m的上升变化,扣除这部分变化后,甘孜台两测道观测值于2012年同步上升.以水平层状模型计算了甘孜台两测道各层介质的影响系数,两测道浅层两层介质影响系数均为负,能合理地解释甘孜台地电阻率在雨季降水量增加时观测值上升、旱季降水量减少时观测值下降这一“夏高冬低”的年变现象.建立三维有限元模型计算了317国道拓宽部分对观测的影响,计算结果表明,拓宽部分仅能引起N60°W测道约0.15Ω·m的下降变化和N30°E测道约0.1Ω ·m的上升变化,其对观测的影响非常小.同时2013年1月甘孜台两测道年变低值显著高于2008年以来各年的年变低值,在芦山地震前呈同步的上升变化,但是与汶川地震前的下降变化相反,因此甘孜台自2012年的趋势上升变化是不是芦山地震的前兆异常还难以确定.     

地形变监测地震能力的评价

利用中国地震局第二监测中心1992-2007年的年度地震趋势研究报告为统计样本,对青藏块体东北缘地区的年度地震预报进行了检验,从一个侧面评价了当前地形变监测地震能力.结果显示在16年中无中强地震漏报,其中报对地震4个,报错地震19个,对错比例为21%.这表明地形变对中强以上地震有较强的监测能力,但由于二者之间尚无确定的对应关系,导致了错报率较高的现象.     

年周期气候态对气候模式的修正

文中从两个独立的假定导出了距平模式,即:假定年周期气候态为控制实际气候系统演化方程组的解或假定反映年周期气候态的基态量远大于反映气候扰动态的扰动量。第一个假定放宽了导出距平模式的条件,而在第二个假定下距平模式在一定的近似程度下是成立的。另外笔者注意到:距平模式通过引入实际观测到的年周期态,相当于在非距平模中引入了年周期气候态的修正项。     

Recent Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature Changes Along the Maldives Coast

Maldives, a South Asian small island nation in the northern part of the Indian Ocean is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to its low altitude from the mean sea level. This artricle attempts to estimate the recent rates of SLR in Maldives during different seasons of the year with the help of existing tidal data recorded in the Maldives coast. Corresponding Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends, utilizing reliable satellite climatology, have also been obtained. The relationships between the SST and mean sea level have been comprehensively investigated. Results show that recent sea level trends in the Maldives coast are very high. At Male, the capital of the Republic of Maldives, the rising rates of Mean Tidal Level (MTL) are: 8.5, 7.6, and 5.8 mm/year during the postmonsoon (October-December), Premonsoon (March-May) and southwest monsoon (June-September) seasons respectively. At Gan, a station very close to the equator, the increasing rate of MTL is maximum during the period from June to September (which is 6.2 mm/year). These rising trends in MTL along the Maldives coast are certainly alarming for this small developing island nation, which is hardly one meter above the mean sea level. Thus there is a need for careful monitoring of future sea level changes in the Maldives coast. The trends presented are based on the available time-series of MTL for the Maldives coast, which are rather short. These trends need not necessarily reflect the long-term scenario. SST in the Maldives coast has also registered significant increasing trend during the period from June to September. There are large seasonal variations in the SST trends at Gan but SST and MTL trends at Male are consistently increasing during all the seasons and the rising rates are very high. The interannual mode of variation is prominent both in SST as well as MTL. Annual profile of MTL along the Maldives coast is bimodal, having two maxima during April and July. The April Mode is by far the dominant one. The SST appears to be the main factor governing the sea level variations along the Maldives coast. The influence of SST and sea level is more near the equatorial region (i.e., at Gan). There is lag of about two months for the maximum influence of SST on the sea level. The correlation coefficient between the smoothed SST and mean tidal level at Gan with lag of two months is as high as ~ +0.8, which is highly significant. The corresponding correlation coefficients at Male with the lags of one and two months are +0.5 and +0.3, respectively. Thus, the important finding of the present work for the Maldives coast is the dominance of SST factor in sea level variation, especially near the region close to the equator.     

库尔勒及呼图壁跨断层水平形变年变畸变异常分析

利用新疆库尔勒、呼图壁台跨断层水平向形变时间序列资料,采用拟合及年变的分析方法分别计算拟合残差,对出现的年变畸变现象进行了分析,研究了地震前年变畸变的异常特征。研究结果表明所用的方法突出了异常,并得出了两个台站年变畸变异常的判别指标。     

EFFECT OF RIVERBED WIDTH ON SEDIMENT TRANSPORT 1

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The suitability of annual tree growth rings as environmental archives: Evidence from Sr,Nd, Pb and Ca isotopes in spruce growth rings from the Strengbach watershed

The combination of the Sr, Nd and Pb isotope systems, recognized as tracers of sources, with the Ca isotope system, known to reveal biology-related fractionations, allowed us to test the reliability of spruce (Picea abies) growth rings as environmental archives through time (from 1916 to 1983) in a forest ecosystem affected by acid atmospheric deposition. Sr and Pb isotopes have already been applied in former tree-ring studies, whereas the suitability of Nd and Ca isotope systems is checked in the present article. Our Sr and Nd isotope data indicate an evolution in the cation origin with a geogenic origin for the oldest rings and an atmospheric origin for the youngest rings. Ca isotopes show, for their part, an isotopic homogeneity which could be linked to the very low weathering flux of Ca. Since this flux is weak the spruces’ root systems have pumped the Ca mainly from the organic matter-rich top-soil over the past century. In contrast, the annual growth rings studied are not reliable and suitable archives of past Pb pollution.     

A 9-year time-series of planktonic foraminifer fluxes and environmental change in the Bering sea and the central subarctic Pacific Ocean, 1990–1999

A 9-year study of planktonic foraminifer fluxes was conducted in the Bering Sea (Station AB) and in the central subarctic Pacific (Station SA). Results clearly reflected variations of the water mass characteristics in the upper layers. The 9-year means of total foraminifer fluxes were the same (1400 shells m⁻² d⁻¹) at both stations. However, total foraminifer flux at Station AB tended to show its primary maximum during fall (October–December) and its secondary maximum in spring (April–June), whereas the primary maximum appeared in spring and the secondary maximum in fall at Station SA. Seasonal variation was more apparent at hemipelagic Station AB than at pelagic Station SA. Planktonic foraminifers found at both stations were of six species: Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Globigerina umbilicata, Globigerinita glutinata, Globigerina quinqueloba, Globorotalia wilesi, and Orbulina universa. The foraminifer assemblages at the two stations reflected the temperature difference in the surface waters. The variable %G. umbilicata tended to be high in the warm surface waters during the summers. The temporal and geographical variation of %G. quinqueloba indicated that this taxon prefers regions with relatively low diatom fluxes. A notable appearance of O. universa occurred in 1997 at Station SA. During this period, other measured biogenic particle fluxes, such as those of diatoms, were low. This unusual 1997 event may be a reflection of global climatic change that happened to be observed in the central subarctic Pacific Ocean.