广西城市空气污染预报业务系统的建立

应用数值预报与动态统计预报相结合的集成预报技术方法,将城市大气污染数值预报(CAPPS)模式、动态统计模式、Sybase数据库、网页技术等有机地结合起来,建立广西城市空气污染预报系统,形成了流畅的集资料传输交换、预报模式运算、预报制作与发布于一体的气象系统和环保系统预报会商的综合业务工作平台,在广西气象台同时对南宁、桂林和北海的城市空气污染做出预报。将近两年的业务实践应用表明,所建立的空气污染预报系统性能稳定、技术成熟、自动化程度和预报准确率高．     

Artificial neural network-based storm surge forecast model: Practical application to Sakai Minato,Japan

The present study describes a novel way of a systematic and objective selection procedure for the development of an Artificial Neural Network-based storm Surge Forecast Model (ANN-SFM) with the 5, 12 and 24 h-lead times and its application to Sakai Minato area on the Tottori coast, Japan. The selection procedure guides how to determine the superiority of the best performing model in terms of the appropriate combination of unit number in the hidden layer and parameter in the input layer. In the application of ANN-SFM to Sakai Minato, it is found that the best 5 and 12 h-forecast ANN-SFMs are established with the most suitable set of 70 units (the number of hidden neurons) and the input components of surge level, sea level pressure, the depression rate of sea level pressure, longitude, latitude, central atmospheric pressure and highest wind speed. The best 24 h-forecast ANN-SFM is determined with 160 units and the input parameters of surge level, sea level pressure, the depression rate of sea level pressure, longitude and latitude. The proposed method of the selection procedure is able to be adaptable to other coastal locations for the development of the artificial neural network-based storm surge forecast model as establishing the superiority of the most relevant set combining unit numbers and input parameters.     

Source Parameters of Old Earthquakes: Semi-Automatic Digitization of Analog Records and Seismic Moment Assessment

Recovering seismic information contained in old analog records could increase our knowledge of seismic source characteristics and the seismicity of a region. This is particularly important in zones with low to moderate seismicity.To extract the available information, it is necessary to digitize the seismic records. This is not an easy task especially owing to the generally poor quality of the original records, with illegible or missing parts. However some exceptions were found in the records of a few seismological stations in Germany, Sweden and France.This paper presents an example of the recovering of source parameters and can be divided in two parts: the first one presents a simple semi-automatic technique for digitization of old analog seismic records, developed using commercial software on a PC; the second part describes the methodology of assessing the seismic moment, using empirical and theoretical relations, as well as the seismic source dimensions.The earthquake selected to illustrate this procedure is the 23 April 1909 Benavente (Portugal) earthquake. This earthquake occurred in the Lower Tagus Valley region and caused great destruction in the meizoseismal area. It is the biggest earthquake that occurred during this century in the central part of the country and its magnitude has been estimated between 6.6 and 7.6.The digitization procedure allowed the recovery of seismic information contained in old analog records, in particular, the seismic moment estimation. The results obtained indicated that 7.6 was a very high value for the magnitude of the 23 April 1909 earthquake, suggesting that the magnitude reported in the Portuguese catalogue is overestimated. The estimated moment magnitude is 6.0.     

Use of double mass curves in hydrologic benefit evaluations

Environmental change resulting from intensified human interventions and climate change has impacted the hydrological function of many large river systems, largely altering the production and transport of run‐off and sediment. It is thus vital to quantitatively evaluate the influence of climate change and human activities on streamflow and sediment discharge. Water balance equations, hydrological models, and comparative analyses are commonly used to fulfil this need. Double mass curves (DMCs), being one useful method for comparative analyses, are characterized by low data requirements and high transferability, and thus more practical than water balance equations and hydrological models for hydrologic benefit evaluations. However, the detailed derivation procedure of the DMC has, to date, yet been described in literature. Moreover, in previous studies, changing points of the DMC were determined either rather empirically or as the changing point of streamflow or sediment discharge (i.e., precipitation was not considered). Hence, the changing point detected may be subject to inaccuracies. This paper, for the first time, comprehensively detailed the derivation procedure of the DMC; a new way was proposed to quantitatively examine the changing point of the DMC; an example was also given to demonstrate the use of the DMC in the hydrologic benefit evaluation. It is hopeful that the method given in our paper will be widely adopted by future studies as a standard procedure to derive and use the DMC.     

一种基于E-Key及Web页面监控的网站防篡改机制研究

通过监控Web页面文件变化和利用E-Key数字证书提高操作安全的网站防篡改机制,可以有效减少甚至消除由于网页遭遇篡改而给企业造成负面影响的目的.特殊设计的Web页面访问过滤监控程序通过计算,比对摘要,可以及时发现被篡改页面并执行删除操作和通知Web页面文件监控程序.Web页面文件监控程序立即停止Web服务,并删除变化文件.Web页面文件监控程序定期向Web页面安全管理服务程序发送心跳包,Web页面安全管理服务程序通过对心跳包的实时监测监控文件变化情况,并及时进行修复还原和报警,同时进行文件更新管理以及文件及其摘要备份.客户端安全控件实现操作者E-Key数字证书和服务器证书间的双向认证,确保web管理者远程操作过程的安全性.     

Casiofx-4800p计算器路线测量计算程序

为了满足现场完成计算的需要,采用线路测量中桩、边桩放线的Casiofx-4800p计算器程序,运用该程序可以根据测量需要进行直线、圆曲线、缓和曲线中桩坐标和构筑物任意位置坐标计算,方便快捷,值得推广。     

基于MPI环境的并行程序设计

MPI(Message Passing Interface)是消息传递并行程序设计的标准之一,概述了MPI的概念和组成,着重介绍了支持并行程序设计的消息传递接口(MPI)以及在MPI环境下的并行程序设计方法,并给出一个MPI并行程序设计实例,说明了MPI的程序设计流程和主从并行计算流程,由此提出了一个Master/Slave结构的设计模式。     

灰色聚类法在膨胀土分类中的应用

介绍了灰色聚类法在膨胀土分类中的应用。以南水北调中线工程为例,利用灰色系统理论中的灰色聚类法对膨胀土的胀缩等级做了评判, 结果表明： 用灰色聚类法对膨胀土进行分类,使其分类数学化与定量化,对于解决常规多因子分类中,由于指标交叉而不能归类的问题更有其优越性。     

广东沿岸海雾决策树预报模型

利用汕头、珠海和湛江地面观测站2000-2008年1-5月的海雾历史观测资料和NCEP/NCAR FNL再分析资料,采用分类与回归树(CART)方法对海雾及其生成前24 h的海洋气象条件进行分类分析,建立了海雾决策树预报模型;并根据现有的海雾理论认识,对海雾预报规则包含的物理意义进行讨论.10次交叉检验的结果表明:采用...