我国低硒带典型景观植物硒的研究

本研究在我国低硒带的东北端和西南端分别选取了针阔叶混交林景观和云南松林景观,并且在低硒带内的克山病和大骨节病非病区与东南非病带选取了落叶阔叶林景观和马尾松林景观为对照景观,系统地采集了上述各不同景观的主要植物和土壤,对硒进行了分析。结果发现,在我国低硒带的东北瑞和西南瑞景观的主要植物含硒量显著地低于对照景观,同时景观内土壤硒也明显地低于划分我国低硒生态景观的阈值,从天然植物的角度进一步对我国低硒带客观存在这一科学论断进行了补充。     

氟苯尼考在三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)疾病模型内的代谢动力学

为了解健康和疾病条件下药物在三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)体内的代谢差异,在构建三疣梭子蟹溶藻弧菌疾病模型的基础上,按25mg/kg剂量分别给健康和患病三疣梭子蟹单次口灌氟苯尼考后,采用高效液相色谱法测定了其肝胰腺、肌肉和血浆中的药物浓度,药时数据应用3P97药代动力学软件拟合。结果显示:氟苯尼考在健康和患病条件下三疣梭子蟹相同组织中的药时曲线形态相似,三种组织的药时数据均符合带时滞的一级吸收二室开放模型;肝胰腺吸收药物最快,肌肉次之,血浆最慢;与健康组相比,患病蟹肝胰腺、肌肉、血浆三种组织对氟苯尼考的吸收和消除速度明显减慢,达峰时间推迟,半衰期延长,清除率减低,最高药物浓度下降,表观分布容积和药时曲线下总面积变大。说明疾病使氟苯尼考在三疣梭子蟹体内的吸收、分布、代谢和消除均发生了显著变化,建议患病三疣梭子蟹口服氟苯尼考的休药期至少10d。     

社交网络不良信息传播模型研究

当前社交网络的信息传播模型主要是对病毒SIR模型的改进而形成的,因其主体不同而具有不完善性,为更好地揭示不良信息在社交网络中的传播规律,从而寻找预防和控制不良信息传播的最优方法。根据社交网络中信息传播的方式和特点,与传染病动力学理论结合构建出SEIR模型来研究不良信息在社交网络中的传播。模型定义了4种传播规则,分析不良信息在不同状态用户之间的传播过程,并且应用扩散核函数和空间协方差方程对相关参数进行了分析。最后通过对比实验说明调节控制率γ的大小对虚假信息在网络中的传播有一定的控制作用。     

北京急性脑血管疾病与气象要素的关系及预测

基于2006年1月至2010年12月北京市120急救中心的逐日脑血管急症接诊病例数据资料,首先探讨北京市急性脑血管疾病与气象要素的关系,选取不同季节的影响因子,然后根据概率积分方法将发病人数划分为4个级别,并采用人工神经元网络方法(artificial neural network,ANN)分别建立了北京市不同季节的急性脑血管疾病预测模型。研究结果表明:(1)急性脑血管疾病发病人数存在明显的季节性变化和日变化特征,冬春季发病人数高于夏、秋季,发病主要集中在早晨到中午的09—14时;(2)发病人数相对于气象要素存在明显的滞后效应,夏和冬秋季发病分别与高温高湿、冷空气活动有关;(3)脑血管疾病预测模型通过对新样本进行预报,除夏季外,完全准确率高于30%,预报误差≤±1级的准确率高于60%,研究成果对于预防急性脑血管疾病发病和调度120急救车辆等应急措施具有较好的科学参考价值。     

Mapping the distribution of the main host for plague in a complex landscape in Kazakhstan: An object-based approach using SPOT-5 XS,Landsat 7 ETM+, SRTM and multiple Random Forests

Plague is a zoonotic infectious disease present in great gerbil populations in Kazakhstan. Infectious disease dynamics are influenced by the spatial distribution of the carriers (hosts) of the disease. The great gerbil, the main host in our study area, lives in burrows, which can be recognized on high resolution satellite imagery. In this study, using earth observation data at various spatial scales, we map the spatial distribution of burrows in a semi-desert landscape.The study area consists of various landscape types. To evaluate whether identification of burrows by classification is possible in these landscape types, the study area was subdivided into eight landscape units, on the basis of Landsat 7 ETM+ derived Tasselled Cap Greenness and Brightness, and SRTM derived standard deviation in elevation.In the field, 904 burrows were mapped. Using two segmented 2.5 m resolution SPOT-5 XS satellite scenes, reference object sets were created. Random Forests were built for both SPOT scenes and used to classify the images. Additionally, a stratified classification was carried out, by building separate Random Forests per landscape unit.Burrows were successfully classified in all landscape units. In the ‘steppe on floodplain’ areas, classification worked best: producer's and user's accuracy in those areas reached 88% and 100%, respectively. In the ‘floodplain’ areas with a more heterogeneous vegetation cover, classification worked least well; there, accuracies were 86 and 58% respectively. Stratified classification improved the results in all landscape units where comparison was possible (four), increasing kappa coefficients by 13, 10, 9 and 1%, respectively.In this study, an innovative stratification method using high- and medium resolution imagery was applied in order to map host distribution on a large spatial scale. The burrow maps we developed will help to detect changes in the distribution of great gerbil populations and, moreover, serve as a unique empirical data set which can be used as input for epidemiological plague models. This is an important step in understanding the dynamics of plague.     

Choosing Geographic Units for Choropleth Rate Maps,with an Emphasis on Public Health Applications

Choropleth maps are the most widely used map type for mapping rates, such as those involving disease, crime, and socioeconomic indicators. The essential step of choosing a geographic unit to map is often made in an ad hoc manner. Among the desirable characteristics of choropleth mapping units are high degree of resolution, homogeneity of population size, homogeneity of land area, observation of minimum population thresholds and land area thresholds, temporal stability and currency, compactness of shape, audience familiarity, data availability, and the functional relevance of the unit to the phenomena mapped. Because of the uneven distribution of human populations, no single geographic unit can meet all of these characteristics in practice, and a well designed choropleth map necessarily involves some compromise. We present guidelines for choosing geographic units that take into account the above criteria, considering 12 geographic units ranging from census blocks to states. Even allowing for differences in scale and purpose, some units confer clear advantages over others.     

A spatial data model design for feature-based geographical information systems

Abstract

In state-of-the-art GIS, geographical features are represented as geometric objects with associated topological relations and classification attributes. Semantic relations and intrinsic interrelations of the features themselves are generally neglected. In this paper, a feature-based model that enhances the representation of geographical features is described. Features, as the fundamental depiction of geographical phenomena, encompass both real world entities and digital representation. A feature-based object incorporates both topological relations among geometric elements and non-topological (semantic) relations among features. The development of an object-oriented prototype feature-based GIS that supports relations between feature attributes and feature classes is described. Object-oriented concepts such as class inheritance and polymorphism facilitate the development of feature-based GTS.     

山东黄河冲积平原区地氟病与地球化学环境相关性研究

山东黄河冲积平原区是山东省地氟病的重病区,危害严重。选择其中的郓城、嘉祥、博兴3县进行土壤氟含量、饮水氟含量、儿童尿氟、儿童氟斑牙检出率、氟斑牙指数、成人尿氟、成人氟骨症检出率等指标进行调查,结果表明区内土壤、饮水氟含量和群体的尿氟含量普遍较高,高氟的危害和地方性氟中毒病情十分严重。在分析氟元素在土壤、饮水中的分布及变化规律的基础上,开展地方性氟中毒病与生态地球化学环境相关性研究,认为地方性氟中毒病与土壤中氟含量、饮水氟含量呈正相关关系。     

乐山水稻赤枯病的气候分析及服务对策初探

采用乐山市气象台站资料,参考相关研究成果,对比分析了乐山市2005、2010年水稻发生赤枯病的气候特征,提出了相应的为农服务对策:(1)根据乐山中、长期天气趋势预报、对春季和初夏可能发生寡照、低温、连阴雨天气的年份,建议农业生产上提高水稻移栽基本苗,以减少因分蘖不足造成减产。(2)二是防,在培育壮秧的基础上,应针对易发生水稻赤枯病的田块着重改善秧苗的生长环境。(3)三是治,水稻栽后10~15天,如秧苗难返青,出现发生赤枯病特征时,应用科学施肥和相应病药物进行防治。