Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time‐scale analysis in unsaturated porous media under external wave loads

Extreme waves caused by tsunamis and storm surges can lead to soil failures in the near‐shore region, which may have severe impact on coastal environments and communities. Multiphase flows in deformable porous media involve several coupled processes and multiple time scales, which are challenging for numerical simulations. The objective of this study is to investigate the roles of the various processes and their interactions in multiphase flows in unsaturated soils under external wave loading, via theoretical time‐scale analysis and numerical simulations. A coupled geomechanics–multiphase flow model based on conservation laws is used. Theoretical analysis based on coupled and decoupled models demonstrates that transient and steady‐state responses are governed by pore pressure diffusion and saturation front propagation, respectively, and that the two processes are essentially decoupled. Numerical simulations suggest that the compressibility of the pore fluids and the deformation of the soil skeleton are important when the transient responses of the media are of concern, while the steady‐state responses are not sensitive to these factors. The responses obtained from the fully coupled numerical simulations are explained by a simplified time‐scale analysis based on coupled and decoupled models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns of mixed siliciclastic‐carbonate sedimentation adjacent to a large dry‐tropics river on the central Great Barrier Reef shelf,Australia

The Great Barrier Reef represents the largest modern example of a mixed siliciclastic‐carbonate system. The Burdekin River is the largest source of terrigenous sediment to the lagoon and is therefore an ideal location to investigate regional patterns of mixed sedimentation. Sediments become coarser grained and more poorly sorted away from the protection of eastern headlands, with mud accumulation focused in localised ‘hot spots‘ in the eastern portion of embayments protected from southeast trade winds. The middle shelf has a variable facies distribution but is dominated by coarse carbonate sand. North of Bowling Green Bay, modern coarse carbonate sand and relict quartzose sand occur. Shore‐normal compositional changes show Ca‐enrichment and Al‐dilution seawards towards the reef, and shore‐parallel trends show Al‐dilution westwards (across bays) along a Ca‐depleted mixing line. Intermediate siliciclastic‐carbonate sediment compositions occur on the middle shelf due to the abundance of relict terrigenous sand, a pattern that is less developed on the narrow northern Great Barrier Reef shelf. Rates of sediment deposition from seismic evidence and radiochemical tracers suggest that despite the magnitude of riverine input, 80–90% of the Burdekin‐derived sediment is effectively captured in Bowling Green Bay. Over millennial time‐scales, stratigraphic controls suggest that sediment is being preferentially accreted back to the coast.     

Study of Distinctive Regional Features of Surface Solar Radiation in North and East China

Solar radiation is an important energy source for plants on the earth and also a major component of the global energy balance.Variations in solar radiation incident at the earth's surface profoundly affect the human and terrestrial environment,including the climate change.To provide useful information for predicting the future climate change in China,distinctive regional features in spatial and temporal variations of the surface solar radiation (SSR) and corresponding attributions (such as cloud and aerosol) are analyzed based on SSR observations and other meteorological measurements in North and East China from 1961 to 2007.Multiple models,such as the plane-parallel radiative transfer model,empirical and statistical models,and corrclation and regrcssion analysis methods are used in the study.The results are given as follows.(1) During 1961-2007,the total SSR in North China went through a process from quickly “dimming” to slowly “dimming”,while in East China,a significant transition from “dimming” to “brightening” occurred.Although there are some differences between thc two regional variation trends,long-term variations in SSR in the two regions are basically consistent with the observation worldwide.(2) Between the 1960s and 1980s,in both North and East China,aerosols played a critical rolc in the radiation dimming.However,after 1989,different variation trends of SSR occurred in North and East China,indicating that aerosols were not the dominant factor.(3) Cloud cover contributed less to the variation of SSR in North China,but was thc major attribution in East China and played a promoting role in the reversal of SSR from dimming to brightening,especially in the “remarkable brightening” period,with its contribution as high as 70％.     

Sediment and particulate phosphorus characteristics in grassed waterways from row crop corn and alfalfa fields collected by manual University of Exeter samplers and automatic sampling

Phosphorus (P) export from agricultural lands above known threshold levels can result in adverse impacts to receiving water quality. Phosphorus loss occurs in dissolved and sediment‐bound, or particulate phosphorous (PP), forms, with the latter often dominating losses from row‐cropped systems. To target practices, land managers need good computer models and model developers need good monitoring data. Sediment monitoring data (e.g. radiometric finger printing and sediment P sorption capacity) can help identify sediment source areas and improve models, but require more sediment mass than is typically obtained by automatic sampling. This study compares a simple suspended sediment sampler developed at the University of Exeter (UE) with automatic sampling in intermittent channels draining corn and alfalfa fields. The corn field had a greater runoff coefficient (27%) than alfalfa (11%). No differences were found in enrichment ratios (sediment constituent/soil constituent) in PP (PP_ER) or percent loss on ignition (LOI_ER) between paired UE samplers on corn. The median LOI_ER for the UE samplers (1·9%) did not differ significantly (p > 0·13) from the automatic sampler (2·0%). The PP_ER from the UE samplers was on average 20% lower than the automatic samplers. A correlation (r² = 0·75) was found between sediment PP and % LOI from automatic samplers and UE samplers for particles < 50 µm, while for > 50 µm PP concentration did not change with changes in % LOI. Sediment ammonium‐oxalate extractable metals were similarly related to LOI, with the strongest correlation for iron (r² = 0·71) and magnesium (r² = 0·70). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, these effects are quantified using three methods, namely, multi‐regression, hydrologic sensitivity analysis, and hydrologic model simulation. A conceptual framework is defined to separate the effects. As an example, the change in annual runoff from the semiarid Laohahe basin (18 112 km²) in northern China was investigated. Non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test, Pettitt test, and precipitation‐runoff double cumulative curve method were adopted to identify the trends and change‐points in the annual runoff from 1964 to 2008 by first dividing the long‐term runoff series into a natural period (1964–1979) and a human‐induced period (1980–2008). Then the three quantifying methods were calibrated and calculated, and they provided consistent estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the human‐induced period. In 1980–2008, human activities were the main factors that reduced runoff with contributions of 89–93%, while the reduction percentages due to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration only ranged from 7 to 11%. For the various effects at different durations, human activities were the main reasons runoff decreased during the two drier periods of 1980–1989 and 2000–2008. Increased runoff during the wetter period of 1990–1999 is mainly attributed to climate variability. This study quantitatively separates the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can serve as a reference for regional water resources assessment and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio‐temporal distribution of near‐surface and root zone soil moisture at the catchment scale

Soil moisture is highly variable both spatially and temporally. It is widely recognized that improving the knowledge and understanding of soil moisture and the processes underpinning its spatial and temporal distribution is critical. This paper addresses the relationship between near‐surface and root zone soil moisture, the way in which they vary spatially and temporally, and the effect of sampling design for determining catchment scale soil moisture dynamics. In this study, catchment scale near‐surface (0–50 mm) and root zone (0–300 mm) soil moisture were monitored over a four‐week period. Measurements of near‐surface soil moisture were recorded at various resolutions, and near‐surface and root zone soil moisture data were also monitored continuously within a network of recording sensors. Catchment average near‐surface soil moisture derived from detailed spatial measurements and continuous observations at fixed points were found to be significantly correlated (r² = 0·96; P = 0·0063; n = 4). Root zone soil moisture was also found to be highly correlated with catchment average near‐surface, continuously monitored (r² = 0·81; P < 0·0001; n = 26) and with detailed spatial measurements of near‐surface soil moisture (r² = 0·84). The weaker relationship observed between near‐surface and root zone soil moisture is considered to be caused by the different responses to rainfall and the different factors controlling soil moisture for the soil depths of 0–50 mm and 0–300 mm. Aspect is considered to be the main factor influencing the spatial and temporal distribution of near‐surface soil moisture, while topography and soil type are considered important for root zone soil moisture. The ability of a limited number of monitoring stations to provide accurate estimates of catchment scale average soil moisture for both near‐surface and root zone is thus demonstrated, as opposed to high resolution spatial measurements. Similarly, the use of near‐surface soil moisture measurements to obtain a reliable estimate of deeper soil moisture levels at the small catchment scale was demonstrated. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A high strain‐rate constitutive model for sand and its application in finite‐element analysis of tunnels subjected to blast

The paper presents a constitutive model for simulating the high strain‐rate behavior of sands. Based on the concepts of critical‐state soil mechanics, the bounding surface plasticity theory and the overstress theory of viscoplasticity, the constitutive model simulates the high strain‐rate behavior of sands under uniaxial, triaxial and multi‐axial loading conditions. The model parameters are determined for Ottawa and Fontainebleau sands, and the performance of the model under extreme transient loading conditions is demonstrated through simulations of split Hopkinson pressure bar tests up to a strain rate of 2000/s. The constitutive model is implemented in a finite‐element analysis software Abaqus to analyze underground tunnels in sandy soil subjected to internal blast loads. Parametric studies are conducted to examine the effect of relative density and type of sand and of the depth of tunnel on the variation of stresses and deformations in the soil adjacent to the tunnels. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.