Comparison of an artificial neural network and a conceptual rainfall–runoff model in the simulation of ephemeral streamflow

ABSTRACT

The rainfall–runoff process is governed by parameters that can seldom be measured directly for use with distributed models, but are rather inferred by expert judgment and calibrated against historical records. Here, a comparison is made between a conceptual model (CM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) for their ability to efficiently model complex hydrological processes. The Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA) is calibrated using a scheme based on genetic algorithms and an input delay neural network (IDNN) is trained for variable delays and hidden layer neurons which are thoroughly discussed. The models are tested for 15 ephemeral catchments in Crete, Greece, using monthly rainfall, streamflow and potential evapotranspiration input. SAC-SMA performs well for most basins and acceptably for the entire sample with R² of 0.59–0.92, while scoring better for high than low flows. For the entire dataset, the IDNN improves simulation fit to R² of 0.70–0.96 and performs better for high flows while being outmatched in low flows. Results show that the ANN models can be superior to the conventional CMs, as parameter sensitivity is unclear, but CMs may be more robust in extrapolating beyond historical record limits and scenario building.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Rainfall–runoff,flood inundation and sensitivity analysis of the 2014 Pakistan flood in the Jhelum and Chenab river basin

ABSTRACT

The major flood of 2014 in the two eastern, transboundary rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab in Punjab, Pakistan, was simulated using the two-dimensional rainfall–runoff model. The simulated hydrograph showed good agreement with the observed discharge at the model outlet and intervening barrages, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.86 at the basin outlet. Further, simulated flood inundation extent showed good agreement with the MODIS imagery with a fit (%) of 0.87. For some affected areas that experienced short-duration flooding, local housing damage data confirmed the simulated results. Besides the rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modelling, parameter sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify the influence of various river and floodplain parameters. The analysis showed that the river channel geometric parameters and the roughness coefficients exerted the primary influence over flood extent and peak flow.     

Suitability of a lumped rainfall–runoff model for flashy tropical watersheds in New Caledonia

ABSTRACT

The GR4H lumped hourly rainfall–runoff model was assessed for its integration in a ridge-to-reef modelling framework. Particular attention was paid to rainfall representation, robustness of parameter estimates and ability to reproduce the main runoff features. The study was conducted in four tropical mountainous watersheds in New Caledonia, which are exposed to intense rainfall events, large annual climatic variations triggered by El Niño oscillation, and wildfires. The inverse distance and elevation weighting algorithm outperformed other classical rainfall interpolation methods under data-limited conditions. The time span of data needed for robust calibration was site specific and varied from 6–7 years to 10 years, which may be linked to El Niño events and to wildfires. With sufficient data, simulation quality was equivalent during the calibration and validation periods. The GR4H model was generally able to simulate both flash floods and large annual variations. The model was more reliable when simulating wet years and watersheds not subject to land-cover changes.     

Performance of a transparent Flexible Shear Beam container for geotechnical centrifuge modeling of dynamic problems

A transparent Flexible Shear Beam (FSB) container was designed and constructed to simulate the dynamic response of a stratum of soil under horizontal, one-dimensional (1-D) earthquake shaking in a geotechnical centrifuge. A stack of four rectangular, acrylic frames separated by layers of flexible, high-strength rubber was used to form the transparent container. The fundamental natural frequency of the container was estimated to be similar to a layer of sand in its softened or liquefied state. The suitability of the container in simulating 1-D site response with minimal boundary effects was evaluated by monitoring the uniformity of the induced accelerations and settlements across the soil specimen. Further, the measured lateral displacements were compared with equivalent-linear site response analyses. The new FSB container was found to provide satisfactory boundary conditions for studying complex Soil–Structure-Interaction problems, while simultaneously enabling researchers to visualize deformations of the soil and buried structures during shaking.     

Hydrological data assimilation with the Ensemble Square-Root-Filter: Use of streamflow observations to update model states for real-time flash flood forecasting

The objective of the study is to evaluate the potential of a data assimilation system for real-time flash flood forecasting over small watersheds by updating model states. To this end, the Ensemble Square-Root-Filter (EnSRF) based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique was coupled to a widely used conceptual rainfall-runoff model called HyMOD. Two small watersheds susceptible to flash flooding from America and China were selected in this study. The modeling and observational errors were considered in the framework of data assimilation, followed by an ensemble size sensitivity experiment. Once the appropriate model error and ensemble size was determined, a simulation study focused on the performance of a data assimilation system, based on the correlation between streamflow observation and model states, was conducted. The EnSRF method was implemented within HyMOD and results for flash flood forecasting were analyzed, where the calibrated streamflow simulation without state updating was treated as the benchmark or nature run. Results for twenty-four flash-flood events in total from the two watersheds indicated that the data assimilation approach effectively improved the predictions of peak flows and the hydrographs in general. This study demonstrated the benefit and efficiency of implementing data assimilation into a hydrological model to improve flash flood forecasting over small, instrumented basins with potential application to real-time alert systems.     

On the theory of core-mantle coupling

This article commences by surveying the basic dynamics of Earth's core and their impact on various mechanisms of core-mantle coupling. The physics governing core convection and magnetic field production in the Earth is briefly reviewed. Convection is taken to be a small perturbation from a hydrostatic, “adiabatic reference state” of uniform composition and specific entropy, in which thermodynamic variables depend only on the gravitational potential. The four principal processes coupling the rotation of the mantle to the rotations of the inner and outer cores are analyzed: viscosity, topography, gravity and magnetic field. The gravitational potential of density anomalies in the mantle and inner core creates density differences in the fluid core that greatly exceed those associated with convection. The implications of the resulting “adiabatic torques” on topographic and gravitational coupling are considered. A new approach to the gravitational interaction between the inner core and the mantle, and the associated gravitational oscillations, is presented. Magnetic coupling through torsional waves is studied. A fresh analysis of torsional waves identifies new terms previously overlooked. The magnetic boundary layer on the core-mantle boundary is studied and shown to attenuate the waves significantly. It also hosts relatively high speed flows that influence the angular momentum budget. The magnetic coupling of the solid core to fluid in the tangent cylinder is investigated. Four technical appendices derive, and present solutions of, the torsional wave equation, analyze the associated magnetic boundary layers at the top and bottom of the fluid core, and consider gravitational and magnetic coupling from a more general standpoint. A fifth presents a simple model of the adiabatic reference state.     

How can a few streamflow measurements help to predict daily hydrographs at almost ungauged sites?

Abstract

Available data from nearby gauging stations can provide a great source of hydrometric information that is potentially transferable to an ungauged site. Furthermore, streamflow measurements may even be available for the ungauged site. This paper explores the potential of four distance-based regionalization methods to simulate daily hydrographs at almost ungauged pollution-control sites. Two methods use only the hydrological information provided by neighbouring catchments; the other two are new regionalization methods parameterized with a limited number of streamflow data available at the site of interest. Based on a network of 149 streamgauges and 21 pollution-control sites located in the Upper Rhine-Meuse area, the comparative assessment demonstrates the benefit of making available point streamflow measurements at the location of interest for improving quantitative streamflow prediction. The advantage is moderate for the prediction of flow types (stormflow, recession flow, baseflow) and pulse shape (duration of rising limb and falling limb).

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione     

Exercice de scénarisation hydrologique en Afrique de l’Ouest—Bassin du Bani

Résumé

Les pays sub-sahariens basent principalement leur économie sur l’agriculture pluviale. Les projections démographiques à moyen ou long terme montrent que la pression démographique va s’accroître très fortement. A l’avenir, il faudra soutenir encore plus fortement le développement de stratégies agricoles de ces pays : cela nécessite une meilleure connaissance de leurs ressources en eau futures. Cette connaissance de la ressource en eau dans le futur passe par l’élaboration de scenarios climatiques et hydrologiques qui font intervenir différents acteurs, compétents dans des activités très variées, qu’ils soient scientifiques de divers domaines (climatologues, hydrologues, sociologues, …) mais aussi financiers, politiques, acteurs sociaux et décideurs. Ce processus d’élaboration de scenarios s’accompagne de nombreuses incertitudes, plus ou moins bien maitrisées, avec lesquelles doivent s’accommoder les gestionnaires d’ouvrages et planificateurs d’aménagements régionaux. Illustré par l’exemple du bassin du Bani, affluent du fleuve Niger, ce travail propose une réflexion sur la « scénarisation hydrologique » et la prédétermination des paramètres d’un modèle hydrologique dans un contexte global non stationnaire. Le choix de jeux de paramètres a de nombreux impacts sur les résultats de la scénarisation comme l’estimation de la ressource et la variabilité de cette ressource. Ces deux éléments sont fondamentaux pour qui doit conduire un processus de décision en réponse à une demande de stratégie d’aménagement ou à une demande de stratégie de développement. Nous proposons une méthodologie de détermination des jeux de paramètres se basant sur la construction de plusieurs jeux de paramètres issus de calages glissants, qui permet d’aller dans le sens de ce que de plus en plus de gestionnaires préconisent : ne pas essayer de prévoir le futur mais plutôt des futurs envisageables qui forceront des modèles d’impact, ce qui leur permettra de fournir des éléments de décision afin de s’adapter ou d’adapter des solutions d’aménagement aux conditions de ces futurs.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé C. Perrin

Citation Paturel, J.-E., 2014. Exercice de scénarisation hydrologique en Afrique de l’Ouest—Bassin du Bani. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1135–1153. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.834340     

Analysis of hydrological seasonality across northern catchments using monthly precipitation–runoff polygon metrics

Abstract

Seasonality is an important hydrological signature for catchment comparison. Here, the relevance of monthly precipitation–runoff polygons (defined as scatter points of 12 monthly average precipitation–runoff value pairs connected in the chronological monthly sequence) for characterizing seasonality patterns was investigated to describe the hydrological behaviour of 10 catchments spanning a climatic gradient across the northern temperate region. Specifically, the research objectives were to: (a) discuss the extent to which monthly precipitation–runoff polygons can be used to infer active hydrological processes in contrasting catchments; (b) test the ability of quantitative metrics describing the shape, orientation and surface area of monthly precipitation–runoff polygons to discriminate between different seasonality patterns; and (c) examine the value of precipitation–runoff polygons as a basis for catchment grouping and comparison. This study showed that some polygon metrics were as effective as monthly average runoff coefficients for illustrating differences between the 10 catchments. The use of precipitation–runoff polygons was especially helpful to look at the dynamics prevailing in specific months and better assess the coupling between precipitation and runoff and their relative degree of seasonality. This polygon methodology, linked with a range of quantitative metrics, could therefore provide a new simple tool for understanding and comparing seasonality among catchments.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Heal

Citation Ali, G., Tetzlaff, D., Kruitbos, L., Soulsby, C., Carey, S., McDonnell, J., Buttle, J., Laudon, H., Seibert, J., McGuire, K., and Shanley, J., 2013. Analysis of hydrological seasonality across northern catchments using monthly precipitation–runoff polygon metrics. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 56–72.