A limit reference point to prevent recruitment overfishing of Pacific bluefin tuna

Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF) (Thunnus orientalis) is commercially important in the North Pacific Ocean. Although its stock has been relatively low for decades, international discussions on a long-term management framework, including the definition of a limit reference point (LRP), have only recently started. This paper argues that an LRP for PBF could be developed by determining a biomass level that would prevent recruitment overfishing. First, it reviews the development of LRPs for various tuna species and demonstrates that most of these limits are not necessarily based on biological information on the respective species. Then, the current management of PBF is also reviewed as background information for considering an LRP for PBF. Finally, a variety of simple analyses of the stock–recruitment relationship of PBF are conducted to find a biomass level that would prevent recruitment overfishing—i.e. an LRP below which stocks should not fall. It is concluded that, for the first time to our knowledge, defining such an LRP for a tuna species is possible (about 30 thousand tonnes or 5% of estimated unfished spawning stock biomass in our calculation). Not only is the LRP based on actual experience, but also the logic behind it would be easier for stakeholders to understand than the theoretical LRPs used elsewhere. This LRP should be useful in future in more comprehensive management framework, such as one through management strategy evaluations, in which stakeholder involvement in decision-making is crucial.     

Fatigue analysis of offshore well conductors: Part II – Development of new approaches for conductor fatigue analysis in clays and sands

This paper, Part II, presents two soil modelling approaches developed specifically for fatigue analysis of well conductors. The first approach uses Winkler springs and can account for soil damping. The second approach is based on continuum soil mechanics and uses the kinematic hardening principles. They focus on cyclic soil behaviour at the steady-state condition. The paper demonstrates appropriateness of the approaches in predicting fatigue damage through comparisons with the centrifuge fatigue lives measured from the Series 1 tests in NC to lightly OC kaolin clay. It also presents and discusses the analyzed data and the fatigue lives measured from the Series 2 (medium-dense sand), Series 3 (NC to lightly OC GoM clay), and Series 4 (OC natural clay) tests. Finally, soil models (based on the first approach) are presented for fatigue analysis of well conductors installed in NC to lightly OC clays, over-consolidated (OC) clays and medium-dense sands, and their ability to predict conductor fatigue damage under wide range of loading conditions is demonstrated. Overall, the accuracy of fatigue life predictions using these novel soil models is very high – generally within about a few percentages of the measured values.     

Fatigue analysis of offshore well conductors: Part I – Study overview and evaluation of Series 1 centrifuge tests in normally consolidated to lightly over-consolidated kaolin clay

An important aspect of deepwater well integrity assurance is conductor fatigue analysis under environmental loads acting on the riser system during drilling operation. Fatigue damage arises from stress changes in a structure due to cyclic loading. In practice, the lateral cyclic soil response is typically modelled using Winkler p–y springs. An appropriate soil model for conductor–soil interaction analysis is the one based on which the absolute magnitudes of stresses and their changes can accurately be predicted for well integrity evaluation. The API recommendations for p–y curves, which are often used for conductor–soil interaction analysis, have originally been developed for piled foundation and are inappropriate for well fatigue analysis. To that end, an extensive study involving four series of centrifuge model tests and FE numerical analyses was conducted to fundamentally study conductor–soil interaction under a wide spectrum of loading conditions. The tests simulated conductor installations in normally to over consolidated clays, and medium-dense clean sands. Soil models were developed specifically for conductor fatigue analysis for each of the soil types. The test results and soil models are presented in two papers. The first paper, Part I, presents an overview of the study and first series tests in normally to lightly over-consolidated kaolin clay and discusses the observations made with regards to monotonic and cyclic soil resistances and their relationship to conductor fatigue modelling. The second paper, Part II, presents centrifuge test results in normally to lightly over-consolidated Golf of Mexico (GoM) clay, over-consolidated natural clay and medium-dense clean sands along with the respective soil models developed for conductor fatigue damage prediction. Overall, the accuracy of fatigue life predictions using these novel soil models is very high – generally within about a few percentage of the measured values.     

Wave attenuation and dispersion due to floating ice covers

Experiments investigating the attenuation and dispersion of surface waves in a variety of ice covers are performed using a refrigerated wave flume. The ice conditions tested in the experiments cover naturally occurring combinations of continuous, fragmented, pancake and grease ice. Attenuation rates are shown to be a function of ice thickness, wave frequency, and the general rigidity of the ice cover. Dispersion changes were minor except for large wavelength increases when continuous covers were tested. Results are verified and compared with existing literature to show the extended range of investigation in terms of incident wave frequency and ice conditions.     

The validity of the independence principle applied to the vortex-induced vibration of an inclined cylinder in steady flow

The validity of the independence principle applied to the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of an inclined cylinder in steady flow is investigated by conducting numerical simulations. In order to create a perfect end-effect-free condition, periodic boundary condition is applied on the two end boundaries that are perpendicular to the cylinder. It is found that the response amplitude and frequency for an inclination angle of α = 45° agree well with their counterparts for α = 0°. The numerical results demonstrated the validity of the independence principle in the case of vortex-induced vibration, which has not been demonstrated by laboratory tests due to the difficulty in avoiding the end effects.     

Fully nonlinear 3D interaction of bubble dynamics and a submerged or floating structure

This paper is concerned with the interaction of bubbles, a submerged or floating structure, and free surface waves. A three-dimensional fully nonlinear model has been developed based on the coupling of the boundary integral method (BIM) for bubble dynamics and free surface waves and the finite element method for structure deformation. The present method is well validated by comparing the numerical results with the experimental data. Three structure characteristics, including fixed, rigidly moving and flexible, are investigated separately to determine their influence on bubble dynamics. For a free-floating structure, the free surface causes not only a larger reduction in peak pressure for a rigid structure compared with a fixed body but also the modification of the bubble period and structural response. The interaction between a bubble and a flexible structure, in the absence of a free surface, is simulated. Both the rigid motion and the deformation at the local structure appear in the simulation. The effect of the structural thickness on the reduction in peak pressure is also considered.     

Neoliberal and neo-communal herring fisheries in Southeast Alaska: Reframing sustainability in marine ecosystems

The transformation of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) fisheries from communal to commons to neoliberal regulation has had significant impacts on the health and sustainability of marine ecosystems on the Northwest Coast of North America. Due to their abundance, seasonality, and sensitivity in disturbance, herring were carefully cultivated and protected by coastal Tlingit, Haida, and Tsimshian communities. The early industrial fishing era undermined this communalist approach in favor of an unregulated commons for bait and reduction fisheries, attracting non-local fleets and leading to conflicts with local Natives and tragedy of the commons style overexploitation of herring stocks by the mid-twentieth century. Since the 1970s, a re-regulated neoliberal sac roe fishery for Japanese markets has provided new opportunities for limited commercial permit holders, but with further depredations on local spawning populations. This paper uses frame theory and historical and political ecology to show how this transformation was justified by three critical but dubious (re)framings of Southeast herring populations under modern scientific management: (1) a reductionist framing of single species productivity models, expressed as herring “biomass,” within space and time (baseline scale framing); (2) the selective framing and privileging of human industrial predation under maximum sustainable yield (MSY) within a dynamic ecosystem of multiple predator populations (actor relations framing); and (3) the strategic framing of spawning failure events and policy responses to those events by professional fisheries managers (event–response framing). Finally, the paper argues for a new social–ecological systems approach, based on aboriginal models of herring cultivation, to sustain a commercial, subsistence, and restoration economy for the fishery.     

Centrifuge modelling of lateral loading behaviour of a “semi-rigid” Mono-pile in soft clay

Abstract

Mono-pile foundations have been widely used for offshore wind turbines principally due to their convenient construction and cost-effective nature. So far, little attention has been paid to large diameter “semi-rigid” piles that have distinct behaviours from flexible or ideally rigid piles. This paper presents a series of centrifuge model tests to study the deforming and bearing characteristics of a 5.9 dia. semi-rigid pile under lateral loadings in kaolin clay. For monotonic loading, a modified p–y curve analysis model considering rotational soil flow near the rotation centre of pile was proposed, highlighting the limitation of classic plane-strain based plasticity models to evaluate the ultimate lateral pile-soil resistance. For cyclic loading, a strong correlation between the degree of soil degradation and cyclic load amplitude was identified. Besides, a degradation factor model, accounting for various cyclic stress levels and soil depths, was proposed, which can be used to assess the accumulative displacement of semi-rigid piles under cyclic loadings in soft clay.     

Food web and fish stock changes in central Chile: comparing the roles of jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) predation,the environment,and fisheries

We analyzed recent food web and fish stock changes in the central Chile marine ecosystem, comparing the roles of jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) as predator, the environment, and fishing. To accomplish this we used food web modeling and the Ecopath with Ecosim software (EwE). The principal fish stocks have experienced wide decadal fluctuations in the past 30 years, including stock collapses of horse mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) and hake (Merluccius gayi), and there was a large influx of jumbo squid during the mid-2000s. We used two EwE models representing the food web off central Chile to test the hypothesis that predation by jumbo squid has been significant in explaining the dynamics of the main fishing resources and other species in the study area. Results indicate that predation by jumbo squid on fish stocks is lower than that of other predators (e.g. hake) and the fishery. Long-term fluctuations (1978–2004) in the biomass of the main fish stocks (as well as other components of the food web) seem to be related to fishing and to variation in primary production, rather than to predation by jumbo squid alone. Jumbo squid seems to play a role as predator rather than prey in the system, but its impacts are low when compared with the impacts of other predators and fishing. Therefore, we conclude that jumbo squid predation on its prey was not the primary force behind the collapse of important fish stocks off central Chile. Future efforts should be directed to better understanding factors that trigger sudden increases in jumbo squid abundance off central Chile, as well as modeling its trophic impacts.     

Organic geochemical study of source rocks and natural gas and their genetic correlation in the eastern part of the Polish Outer Carpathians and Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basement

Geochemical characteristics of organic matter in the profiles of Dukla, Silesian, Sub-Silesian and Skole units of the Polish Outer Carpathians and of the Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basement in the Dębica-Rzeszów-Leżajsk-Sanok area were established based on Rock-Eval, vitrinite reflectance, isotopic and biomarker analyses of 485 rock samples. The Oligocene Menilite beds have the best hydrocarbon potential of all investigated formations within the Dukla, Silesian, and Skole units. The Ordovician, Silurian, Lower Devonian and locally Middle Jurassic strata of the Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basement are potential source rocks for oil and gas accumulated in Palaeozoic and Mesozoic reservoirs. Thirty one natural gas samples from sandstone reservoirs of the Lower Cretaceous-Lower Miocene strata within the Outer Carpathian sequence and eight from sandstone and carbonate reservoirs of the Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basement were analysed for molecular and isotopic compositions to determine their origin. Natural gases accumulated both in the Outer Carpathian and the Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basement reservoirs are genetically related to thermogenic and microbial processes. Thermogenic gaseous hydrocarbons that accumulated in the Dukla and Silesian units were generated from the Menilite beds. Thermogenic gaseous hydrocarbons that accumulated in the Sub-Silesian Unit most probably migrated from the Silesian Unit. Initial, and probably also secondary microbial methane component has been generated during microbial carbon dioxide reduction within the Oligocene Menilite beds in the Dukla Unit and Oligocene-Lower Miocene Krosno beds in the Silesian Unit. Natural gases that accumulated in traps within the Middle Devonian, Mississippian, Upper Jurassic, and Upper Cretaceous reservoirs of the Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basement were mainly generated during thermogenic processes and only sporadically from initial microbial processes. The thermogenic gases were generated from kerogen of the Ordovician-Silurian and Middle Jurassic strata. The microbial methane component occurs in a few fields of the Dukla and Silesian units and in the two accumulations in the Middle Devonian reservoirs of the Palaeozoic–Mesozoic basement.