Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

四川盆地东缘寒武系盐下油气勘探领域探讨

地球物理资料显示四川盆地东缘齐岳山附近寒武系高台组膏盐岩层下深部存在逆冲构造,其形成过程以及油气地质意义未见深入研究。笔者等综合四川盆地东部石柱地区线束三维和建南地区二维地震反射资料,并结合钻井资料以及区域地质研究成果,从构造继承性的角度探讨四川盆地震旦系灯影组台缘带类型,并分析了川东地区寒武系盐下油气圈闭特征。研究获得如下认识：①川东齐岳山北段构造变形强烈,普遍发育基底卷入构造,构造样式受青白口纪—南华纪裂谷与转换带构造位置的控制。②依据构造继承关系将盆内灯影组台缘带划分为德阳—安岳地区原生型台缘带、万源—达州地区继承型台缘带以及石柱地区继承—改造型台缘带。③依据青白口纪—南华纪裂谷的分布和后期构造作用影响大小,认为沿齐岳山向南至南川一带存在与石柱地区相似的灯影组继承—改造型台缘带,忠县、南川以西存在灯影组继承型台缘带。④研究区新元古界—下寒武统烃源岩、灯影组—龙王庙组滩相白云岩储层与寒武系膏盐岩层系构成完整的生储盖组合。⑤寒武系盐下基底逆冲可形成成排、成带的构造,与灯影组继承—改造型台缘带、龙王庙组滩相白云岩储层配置,形成断层相关的构造—岩性圈闭带,成为川东地区油气规模聚集有利区。研究认为四川盆地东部石柱地区震旦纪—早寒武世早期继承了青白口纪—南华纪裂谷构造特征,燕山期构造反转,高台组盐下形成基底卷入逆冲构造,具备生储盖等基本石油地质条件,具有重要的油气勘探现实意义。     

Effect of shipping activity on warming trends in the Canadian Arctic

This paper presents a detailed account of the effect of shipping activity on the increasing trends of air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic region for the period of 1980–2018. Increasing trend of temperature has gained significant attention with respect to shipping activities and sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic. Temperature, sea ice area and shipping traffic datasets were investigated, and simple linear regression analyses were conducted to predict the rate of change(per decade) of the average temperature, considering winter(January) and summer(July) seasons. The results indicate that temperature generally increased over the studied region. Significant warming trend was observed during July, with an increase of up to 1℃, for the Canadian Arctic region. Such increasing trend of temperature was observed during July from the lower to higher latitudes. The increase in temperature during July is speculated to increase the melting of ice. Results also show a decline in sea ice area has a significant positive effect on the shipping traffic, and the numbers of marine vessel continue to increase in the region. The increase in temperature causes the breaking of sea ice due to shipping activities over northern Arctic Canada.     

福建行洛坑钨矿床白钨矿Sm-Nd等时线年龄及微量元素地球化学特征

行洛坑超大型钨矿床位于福建省宁化县东部,是武夷山成矿带内最大的钨矿床,具有储量大、品位低、黑钨矿与白钨矿资源量相近的特点。白钨矿作为含钨矿物,其形成年龄可以代表矿床的成矿时代,其地球化学特征反映了成矿作用环境和过程。文章在对行洛坑钨矿床钨矿脉特征、黑钨矿与白钨矿赋存状态开展调查的基础上,挑选白钨矿单矿物进行了Sm-Nd等时线测年和微量元素测试。研究结果显示,白钨矿结晶年龄为（142.6±2.8）Ma,略小于黑钨矿原位U-Pb年龄（150.5±8.1）Ma和石英流体包裹体Rb-Sr等时线年龄（147.5±2.9）Ma,与矿区隐伏岩体成岩年龄143.5~149.5 Ma在误差范围内完全吻合,也与矿物结晶世代关系吻合,都属于晚侏罗世的产物,说明钨成矿与隐伏岩体成岩近于同时或稍晚发生。白钨矿中微量及稀土元素特征显示第一世代成矿流体中Eu³⁺ < < Eu²⁺,指示成矿流体为还原性流体;第二世代成矿流体中Eu³⁺ > > Eu²⁺,指示成矿流体为氧化性流体。行洛坑钨矿成矿与华南中生代大规模成矿作用及其大地构造背景和动力学环境密切相关。     

葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段江豚活动规律

长江江豚是我国一级保护野生动物,也是长江生态系统的指示性物种,其种群数量恢复情况及活动规律一直备受关注。本文选择长江宜昌段江豚活动频繁的葛洲坝下游至胭脂坝江段为研究区域,于2021年6月-2022年5月采用定点目测、水上流动监测与无人机监测相结合的方法分区监测长江江豚的游泳行为,分析长江江豚的活动规律,构建了长江江豚出水头次的零膨胀泊松回归模型,识别影响长江江豚出水头次的关键因素,建立长江江豚出水头次与各因素间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段监测到最大江豚出水头次为19头次,长江江豚集群规模以2~3头最为常见,占比达58.1%;长江江豚主要表现出4种行为特征,各行为占比从大到小依次为:玩耍＞休息＞摄食＞抚幼。(2)长江江豚在葛洲坝下游近坝区(A区,葛洲坝至至喜长江大桥)出水头次最多,且在秋冬季节累计出水头次多于春夏季节,冬季累计出水头次最高,达252头次。(3)长江江豚出水头次与电站下泄流量呈显著负相关;浊度增大,长江江豚出水的概率减小。本文研究结果对长江江豚生态保护策略及长江十年禁渔效果评估具有重要参考价值。     

Cloning and characterization of glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase encoding gene inGracilaria/Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis

Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase （GAPDH） plays important roles in various cellular processes. A cytosolic GAPDH encoding gene （gpd） of Gracilaria/Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis was cloned and characterized. Deduced amino acid sequence of the enzyme of G. lemaneiformis had high homology with those of seven red algae. The 5＇-untranslated regions of the GAPDHs encoding genes of these red algae varied greatly. GAPDHs of these red algae shared the highly conserved glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase active site ASCTTNCL. However, such active site of Cyanidium caldarium was different from those of the other six algae at the last two residues （CL to LF）, thus the spatial structure of its GAPDH active center may be different from those of the other six. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that GAPDH of G. lemaneiformis might have undergone an evolution similar to those of Porphyra yezoensis, Chondrus crispus, and Gracilaria verrucosa. C. caldarium had a closer evolutionary relationship with Cyanidioschyzon merolae than with Cyanidium sp. Virtual Northern blot analysis revealed that gpd of G. lemaneiformis expressed constitutively, which suggested that it might be house-keeping and could be adapted as an inner control in gene expression analysis of G. lemaneiformis.     

中国农村居民收入区域差异变化的因子解析

在GINI 系数因子分解的基础上, 提出了测度区域差异变化影响因子贡献来源的分解方法, 将影响因子对区域差异变化的贡献分解为因子的结构性贡献和集中性贡献两种类型。对1993-2005 年中国农村居民区域收入差异因子分解的实证研究表明工资性收入是影响农村收入差距格局最重要的因素, 但对农村收入差距变化的影响并不明显。相反, 近年来工资性收入集中度的不断下降超过了结构性增加对区域差异扩大的贡献, 二者共同作用促进了农村区域差异的缩小。家庭经营性收入仍然是农村居民最重要的收入来源, 但对收入差距的影响越来 越小, 且结构性和集中性对区域差异的贡献都在下降。财产性收入和转移性收入对收入差距格局的贡献虽然不大, 但对收入差异扩大的贡献不断增加, 已成为影响农村区域差异变化的重要因素。财产性收入贡献的增加主要来源于结构性贡献, 集中性变化影响的趋势并不明显, 而转移性收入贡献的增加除结构性增加影响之外, 集中性下降的影响同样显著。最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

基于GIS的北京山区优势林分生态位分析

应用生态位理论,以北京山区森林资源为研究对象,分析优势林分的空间分布及其资源利用和环境适应能力的差异。基于GIS方法,建立优势林分空间分布数据库以及资源梯度信息数据库,分别采用Levins公式和Smith公式,在水分、热量、光照和土壤质量4维环境因子梯度上测定了研究区8个优势林分的生态位宽度,采用Pianka公式测定生态位重叠。结果表明:Smith公式考虑资源可利用性,得到的生态位宽度更能客观地反映优势林分资源空间利用程度;研究区各优势林分重叠度普遍较大,反映了对环境要求的相似性及资源共享的趋势性。     

Composition of plagioclases in volcanic rocks of King George Island, Antarctica with reference to the petrogenetic significance

Plagioclases occur mainly as phenocrysts in volcanic rocks of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica. In basaltic andesites and andesites of Keller Peninsula and Ullman Spur (Admiralty Bay), they are high structure state labradorite-andesines; and in high-A1 basalts and basaltic andesites of Barton and Weaver peninsulas (Maxwell Bay), they are high structure state bytownite-anorthites.∑REE, La/Yb ratios and δEu values of plagioclases from Admiralty Bay are higher than those from Maxwell Bay. All plagioclases have rather identical chondritenormalized transitional element distribution patterns, probably reflecting that crystal structure rather than composition of plagioclase controls their diversity. Compositions of plagioclases depend chiefly on those of their host rocks, compositional differences of plagioclases reveal that basaltic magmas in the Admiralty Bay area are more evolved than in the Maxwell Bay area.     

广西红土型金矿基本类型及找矿前景分析

广西红土型金矿是90年代初发现的一种新型金矿.文章通过对广西红色风化壳及红土型金矿分布的研究,依据含金红土类型及金矿源体矿化特征将全区红土型金矿划分为7 种基本类型;并结合其成矿环境和控矿条件的剖析,认为广西红土型金矿具有较好的找矿前景,提出碳酸盐岩类、火山岩类及蚀变构造岩类红土型金矿是广西红土型金矿的主攻类型,主攻地区为桂西百色-平果、桂中横县-贵港、桂西南凭祥-崇左等地.