Sustaining marine life beyond boundaries: Options for an implementing agreement for marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

For nearly a decade, governments have been discussing the need to improve efforts to conserve and sustainably use marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ). Support for a new international agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) – an Implementing Agreement – on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in ABNJ has been growing. In June 2012, at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, States agreed to take a decision on the development of an international instrument under UNCLOS before the end of the 69th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which runs from September 2014 to August 2015. In follow-up to this commitment, it was agreed to consider the “scope, parameters and feasibility” of this instrument. To inform these international discussions, this article highlights some potential options for the content of a new UNCLOS Implementing Agreement. It first reviews the history of UN discussions, and then elaborates on options to address key elements identified as priorities for States in 2011: marine genetic resources, including the sharing of benefits, area-based management tools, including marine protected areas, environmental impact assessments, capacity-building and the transfer of marine technology. It addresses cross-cutting issues such as the governing principles, institutional structure as well as on other critical points such as High Seas fishing and flag State responsibilities. The article concludes with suggestions on possible next steps in order to succeed in the negotiations for an agreement.     

Can management effort be predicted for marine protected areas? New considerations for network design

This study examined the level of management complexity (simultaneously occurring licensed human activities) within the currently designated Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in Scottish waters and through modelling and statistical analysis determined which variables play an important role in defining the level of management effort required for each MPA. This study utilised surveyed distribution data for Priority Marine Features and modelled distribution data showing potential “Most Suitable” Priority Marine Feature habitat through the species distribution model, Maxent. Prediction indicators were developed through Spearman׳s Rank coefficients and a linear regression model. Results showed that, (1) there was a significant negative correlation between the management complexity score within 5 km of a MPA and the number of casework events (defined as any work or statutory consultation associated with an MPA, such as planning applications, discharges or new fisheries); and (2) a significant positive correlation between the number of casework events and location, number of features, and the type of features and most suitable scores. Calculations showed that Lochs Duich, Long and Alsh, Loch Sunart, Loch Sween and Loch Creran may potentially require most effort to manage once they are designated as MPAs. This study showed that it is possible to evaluate options within an MPA network to achieve cost effective options for the biodiversity and socio-economic objectives of MPA networks and that some MPAs are likely to be more efficient than others in terms of management time.     

Fishers' perceptions,facilitating factors and challenges of community-based no-take zones in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve,Quintana Roo,Mexico

In response to fisheries decline in the Mexican Caribbean and continuing deterioration of the Mesoamerican Reef, conservation NGOs have begun to negotiate and collaboratively design a network of no-take zones (NTZs) with three fishing cooperatives in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve (SKBR), among other places along the coast of Quintana Roo. Spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) is the target of the main fishery within cooperative concessions. Fishers are uniquely positioned to enforce and monitor NTZs and evaluate their effectiveness. This study analyzes fishers' perceptions as indicators of social acceptance of NTZs, and identifies facilitating factors and challenges of the community-based process. Consistent with similar studies, responses of fishers (89 out of a population of 124) to a semi-structured interview showed that perceptions of NTZs largely reflect fishers' concerns and interests. A high proportion of fishers accurately identified main NTZ objectives of regulation, conservation and economic improvement, as well as NTZ locations. Further, fishers cared about ecosystem sustainability and, because NTZs would not significantly limit their main economic activity, endorsed the initiative while expecting additional benefits. Declining trends in lobster catch influenced a perceived need for NTZs. Major concerns were that illegal fishers would reap NTZ benefits and that economic impacts and benefits were uncertain. Most fishers found the decision-making process inclusive, were willing to take responsibility for enforcing NTZs and believed people leading the process were trustworthy. Differences in endorsement of NTZs among cooperatives points to the importance of understanding fishers’ incentives to collaborate, and the leadership and organizational dynamics which shape participatory processes. This analysis highlights challenges in advancing NTZs in complex ecological, socio-economic and regulatory contexts. It underscores the need for community-based processes that transcend understanding of conservation measures but also invests in sustainable, operative and trustful working relationships, as well as the urgency of interdisciplinary approaches in ensuring effective design and implementation of this relatively new fishery management tool.     

基于城市内涝仿真模型的天津风暴潮灾害评估

基于城市内涝仿真模型,根据天津沿海地区的地形、地貌特征以及排水系统等对城市内涝仿真模型进行改进,在沿海边界和河口设置时变水位,使得模型拓展到既能模拟暴雨产生的内涝,也能模拟由于风暴潮侵袭造成的淹没情景。该模型对天津沿海地区历史上典型风暴潮个例以及10年、20年、50年、100年一遇重现期风暴潮产生的积水范围和积水深度进行了模拟,并对2012年8月3日台风达维 (1210) 造成的天津沿海风暴潮进行了业务试应用。将历史风暴潮个例模拟结果以及2012年8月3日的评估结果与实际灾情进行对比,结果显示模型具有较好的模拟能力,可应用于风暴潮灾害的评估和预估业务中,为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。     

基于空间变异修正普通克里金的矿区复杂地形高精度建模

普通克里金法是构建矿区三维地形模型并揭示地表沉陷形变场动态变化规律的有效方法。但普通克里金法存在平滑效应的问题,导致估计值的空间变异程度小于实际,无法真实反映矿区复杂地表形态的空间变化特征。本文结合矿区实际地形采样数据,提出了一种空间变异修正的普通克里金法,并将其应用于矿区复杂地形的高精度建模,并与已有方法在建模精度和空间变异性复现方面进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,空间变异修正的普通克里金法能够很好地处理平滑效应对建模的影响,具有更高的建模精度和空间变异性复现能力,在矿区复杂地形高精度建模应用中具有较强的适用性,可以作为一种可靠的建模工具用于矿区复杂地形沉陷形变场动态变化规律分析。     

江苏沿淮地区淮河水与地下水补排关系研究

从淮河江苏段与地下水含水层关系出发,认为淮河河床切割了地下水承压含水层。地下水的水动力特征表明地下水接受了淮河水的补给。从水质研究的角度印证了地表水与地下水的补排关系。将淮河水与潜水、微承压、承压水之间进行聚类分析,印证了微承压、承压水与淮河水同源。     

甘肃白银厂矿区及其外围铜矿床成矿特征与定量预测

北祁连地区是我国重要的海相火山成因铜多金属块状硫化物矿床成矿带,位于该区东段的白银矿田内产出有多个大型-特大型VMS矿床,具有较好的找矿前景.在该地区铜矿床成矿特征研究的基础上,利用GIS技术提取与成矿有关的地层、构造、岩浆岩、地球化学等多元找矿信息,构建了白银矿区及外围铜矿床的证据权重找矿模型,利用后验概率圈定出找矿远景区,按照各找矿远景区相对成矿可能性的大小和各找矿标志将远景区分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ3级,各级找矿远景区各3个.     

滇东南喀斯特山区生态系统服务时空格局及功能分区

明晰生态系统服务时空格局,划分生态系统服务功能区,将有助于实现土地资源精细化管理。本文以滇东南喀斯特山区典型区域文山市为例,分析2000—2017年食物供给、产水量、植被净初级生产力、土壤保持、生境质量和旅游文化6项生态系统服务的时空格局及其分异特征;运用K-means聚类法识别生态系统服务簇,划分生态系统服务功能区,并提出差异化生态管控措施。结果表明：① 2000—2017年间,除生境质量服务下降外,文山市其他5项服务均呈上升趋势。② 空间分布上,文山市6项生态系统服务高值区集中分布在西部和南部,低值区集中分布在北部和中部;6项服务的冷热点区域空间分布有差异,但整体上具有重叠性。除旅游文化服务的热点和冷点区分布面积占比分别为2.56%和0以外,其他5项服务的冷热点区面积占比均在21%~32%;能够同时提供3项及以上高值生态系统服务功能的区域较少,85.50%的区域只能同时提供2项及以下高值服务功能。③ 根据服务簇聚类结果,文山市划分为生态保护区、生态过渡区、农业主产区和人类生产生活区4类功能区,针对各分区提出差异化生态管控建议。研究结果可为喀斯特山区城市资源利用和国土空间管控提供参考。     

中国超大城市户籍人口转化的实证研究

“十四五”时期到2030年,加快流动人口市民化是推进新型城镇化和实现共同富裕的关键。中国户籍人口城镇化率与常住人口城镇化率相差约18%,老龄化压力与劳动力市场缺口使大城市纷纷出台“抢人”政策,市民化程度亟待提升,焦点在北上广深等超大城市。超大城市每年户籍人口转化数相差很大,学界对此缺乏研究,使得城市每年能“化”多少户籍人口成为重要学术问题。本文结合自然和社会两个视角,选取简明指标,构建可能—满意度模型,测算4个超大城市年均户籍城镇化转化缺口,构建面板数据模型实证分析超大城市户籍缺口的主导因素。影响超大城市户籍人口转化的因素主要是医疗、教育和供水。城乡治理亟需转变被动和僵化的制度安排,实现弹性的常态化治理。     

平原农区土地综合整治与乡村转型发展协同机制

平原农区是保障国家粮食安全的核心区,土地综合整治与乡村转型发展协同有利于缓解平原农区经济发展、耕地保护、生态保育等多重压力,保障乡村振兴政策落实。本文以“问题研判—策略梳理—机制构建—实证检验”为研究主线,探讨两者协同机制。研究表明：① 平原农区“三生”空间利用冲突显著,生产空间低值低效、生活空间无序空废、生态空间污损衰退共同制约乡村转型发展;② 面向土地价值提升、人居环境改善、产业融合发展的土地综合整治优化策略,有利于推动乡村转型发展;③ 新时期,土地综合整治由“以地为本”单要素调控转向“人、地、业、权”多要素协同综合整治,权利重组、空间重构、产业重塑是推动土地综合整治与乡村转型发展协同的核心机制;④ 平原农区典型地区禹城市,聚焦土地权属调整、空心村整治和现代产业培育,实现土地综合整治与乡村转型发展的协同推进。本文有利于深化平原农区人地系统科学新认知,为构建现代化国土空间治理体系和全面推进乡村振兴提供实践参考。