Mental preparation for climate adaptation: The role of cognition and culture in enhancing adaptive capacity of water management in Kiribati

In many Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as in Kiribati, formal national adaptation programmes are currently being operationalised or are in the pipeline. A key focus is on motivating householders to adapt in anticipation of climate change through pilot community projects. In this paper, we argue that the water sector must pay equal attention to how communities cognitively perceive the process of adaptation if interventions are to be effective. Adopting a cognitive model to gain such insights we conclude that individual's belief in their own abilities to manage water stress play a crucial role in driving intentions to adapt and therefore greater attention needs to be placed on understanding the underling drivers shaping such beliefs.     

Reindeer management during the colonization of Sami lands: A long-term perspective of vulnerability and adaptation strategies

Reindeer husbandry's strong connection to the land, together with the ongoing climate-change debate, has generated growing interest in its socio-ecological resilience and vulnerability. The ability of indigenous societies and their activities to respond to change is widely recognized to be dependent on several factors, such as socioeconomic forces and aspects of governance, all of which have long historical backgrounds. However, although historians constantly address questions about human societies, there have been very few historical studies on their resilience, vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Here, using historical sources, we analyze the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry (and the Sami societies that depended on it) in Sweden during the 19th century. We demonstrate that although reindeer management was a much more diverse enterprise at that time than it is now, the major adaptation strategy and constraining forces were similar to those of today. The foremost adaptation strategy was, and still is, the flexible use of pasture area, and the clearest constraints during the 19th century were the loss of authority over the land and the imposed regulation of reindeer management-both of which were strongly connected to the process of colonization.

Terminology

Throughout this paper we use the terms reindeer management and reindeer pastoralism interchangeably. Sami reindeer pastoralism has been described as a complex system with two different aspects of management: herding and husbandry. Husbandry has been defined as the accumulations of profit whereas herding has been defined as the control of the animals in the terrain (Paine, 1970, p. 53). In a Swedish context husbandry questions concerning slaughter and castration of reindeer were discussed within the household and herding matters were resolved jointly within the traditional working community Siida. The Siida consisted of households working together on traditional pasturelands and these constellations were grouped together into administrative reindeer pasture districts (Sami villages) ( [Ingold, 1978], [Fellman, 1910] and [Beach, 1981]).     

Recurring droughts or social shifts? Exploring drivers of large-scale transformations in a transformed country

As climate change intensifies, the need for large-scale transformations that reform vulnerable systems’ prevailing values and development pathways is increasingly recognized. However, there is limited understanding of the factors that underlie such changes. This study sheds light on these factors by examining the case of Israel – a largely arid to semi-arid country with highly scarce natural water resources and a historical rural-agricultural ideology. Adopting an historically-informed systems perspective, I analyze two transformations that diminished Israel’s vulnerability to recurring droughts: the 1960s’ economic transformation from agriculture to industry, and the shift to seawater desalination in the mid-2000s. These changes are examined using causal-loop diagrams based on multiple data sources, including archival records, statistical reports and a systematic review of grey and academic literature.The findings show that both transformations, instigated by state institutions during exceptionally severe droughts, were driven by shifts away from development paradigms embedded in the nation-building ideology, as well as by social stresses that exceeded the natural limits of the agricultural system and water supply system. Repeated drought shocks activated and later reactivated the shift to desalination, intended to a certain degree to reduce drought vulnerability. However, drought did not significantly affect the economic transformation, initiated mainly due to saturation in agricultural development. Thus, I argue that alongside concerted adaptation efforts state institutions should dedicate greater attention to the management of broader social challenges and crises in a manner that fosters greater resilience against future climate changes. Ideological shifts and consequent restructuring of development paths, as well as the interaction between population growth and limited natural resources, may constitute important entry points. These entry points are particularly pertinent to emerging economies in other dry areas, many of which face similar social and economic trends to those experienced in Israel over the last decades.     

Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty

Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty explicitly through systematically exploring the implications of modeling assumptions, aiming to enhance the robustness of inferences from models. Despite a variety of applications, the extent and the way(s) that exploratory modeling can deal with the challenges that arise from the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making with stakeholders has not yet been systematically framed. We address this gap in two ways. First, we present a taxonomy of the ways that exploratory modeling can be used to inform robust inferences in coupled human-natural systems by mapping the technical capabilities of this approach in relation to the diversity of past applications. This subsequently guides an investigation of the practical benefits and challenges of these capabilities in handling uncertainty and complexity. Second, we discuss different ways for integrating genuine stakeholder engagement into exploratory modeling through transdisciplinary research. Finally we outline some priorities for future expansion of this research area.     

Why climate migration is not managed retreat: Six justifications

This perspective piece makes a case for a more rigorous treatment of managed retreat as a politically, legally, and economically distinct type of relocation that is separate from climate migration. We argue that the use of both concepts interchangeably obfuscates the problems around climate-induced mobilities and contributes to the inconsistencies in policy, plans, and actions taken by governments and organizations tasked with addressing them. This call for a disentanglement is not solely an academic exercise aimed at conceptual clarity, but an effort targeted at incentivizing researchers, practitioners, journalists, and advocates working on both issues to better serve their constituencies through alliance formation, resource mobilization, and the establishment of institutional pathways to climate justice. We offer a critical understanding of the distinctions between climate migration and managed retreat grounded in six orienting propositions. They include differential: causal mechanisms, legal protections, rights regimes and funding structures, discursive effects, implications for land use, and exposure to risks. We provide empirical examples from existing literature to contextualize our propositions while calling for a transformative justice approach to addressing both issues.     

IPCC特别报告SRCCL关于气候变化与粮食安全的新认知与启示

气候变化对粮食安全的影响是广泛的,不但影响粮食产量和品质,还会影响到农户的生计以及农业相关的产业发展等;而粮食系统在保障粮食安全的同时,又会产生一系列的环境问题,其中农业源温室气体（GHG）的排放加剧全球变暖。IPCC在2019年8月份发布的《气候变化与土地特别报告》（SRCCL）,从粮食生产、加工、储存、运输及消费的各个环节评估气候变化对粮食安全的影响及粮食系统的温室气体排放对气候系统的影响;系统梳理粮食系统供给侧和需求侧的适应与减缓措施、适应与减缓的协同和权衡问题,以及气候变化条件下保障粮食安全的政策环境等。SRCCL评估结论认为,由于大量施用氮肥和消耗水资源,目前粮食系统GHG排放占全球总排放的21%~37%;农业和粮食系统是全球应对气候变化的重要方面,供给侧和需求侧的综合措施可以减少食物浪费、减少GHG排放、增加粮食系统的恢复力。未来工作的重点应丰富和扩展气候变化影响评估内容,量化适应效果,加深对适应、减缓及其协同和权衡的科学认知,大力加强应对气候变化能力建设。     

Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.     

Adaptive capacity contributing to improved agricultural productivity at the household level: Empirical findings highlighting the importance of crop insurance

Understanding the factors that give rise to greater or lesser adaptive capacity among households with in a community could allow government interventions to target the right groups of people. In this paper we study such factors, making use of a household survey administered in the Indian state of Odisha. In the survey, we queried respondents for the adaptations that they had engaged in to deal with the risk of drought, as well as a number of indicators for adaptive capacity taken from the literature. We found a large number of indicators of adaptive capacity to correlate with one or more adaptations taken. However, many of these indicators, while increasing the likelihood that one adaptation would be taken, also decreased the likelihood that another would be taken, and hence were not unambiguous determinants of greater adaptive capacity in general. One indicator, access to crop insurance, stood out as particularly effective: it correlated with an increased likelihood of engaging in two separate yield-raising adaptations, and correlated with a decreased likelihood of engaging in two additional adaptations that would have the effect of reducing yields. The results suggest that further attention to crop insurance may be warranted, as well as further research to determine if the other indicators may be effective in other contextual settings.     

Environmental non-migration as adaptation in hazard-prone areas: Evidence from coastal Bangladesh

Despite suffering significantly from the adverse impacts of climate change and human-induced hazards, many people at risk deliberately choose not to migrate from hazard-prone areas in coastal Bangladesh. As many of them encounter significant challenges in maintaining their livelihoods, ascertaining how and under what circumstances voluntary non-migration decisions occur is crucial. Only a handful of studies have investigated whether individuals and groups who decide to stay put in the face of climatic hazards consider their decision to be an adaptive action. In this regard, this study contributes to the existing literature by empirically investigating the voluntary non-migration decision as an adaptation strategy through an exploration of the factors affecting this decision. We employed a systematic random sampling technique and selected 627 respondents from two climatic hazard-prone coastal districts: Khulna and Satkhira. Using the Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM), we found that voluntary non-migrants (84% of total respondents) appeared to enjoy the significant advantage of access to their communities' basic need provision and social support. Furthermore, the social, psychological, and economic opportunities found at their existing location (e.g., better income prospects, affordable living costs, receipt of financial help during post-disaster periods, and skills allowing them to stay in that location), as well as their access to local natural resources, strengthened their social capital and thus influenced their desire to stay. Together, these factors enhanced people’s adaptability to climatic shocks and motivated them to choose voluntary non-migration as an adaptation option.     

Déjà vu or something new? The adaptation concept in the climate change literature

This paper reflects on the resurgence and meaning of the adaptation concept in the current climate change literature. We explore the extent to which the early political economic critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how it is used in this literature. That is, has the current conceptualization been enriched by the political economic critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? Or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous debates; that is, is this a déjà vu experience? To answer this question, we review the early political economic critique of the natural hazards school’s interpretations of vulnerability and adaptation. We then examine the revival of the adaptation concept in the climate change literature and discuss its main interpretations. For the purposes of this paper, the climate change literature encompasses the four IPCC reports and adaptation-focused articles in four scholarly journals: Global Environmental Change, Climatic Change, Climate and Development, and Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Our content analysis shows the dominance (70%) of “adjustment adaptation” approaches, which view climate impacts as the main source of vulnerability. A much smaller percentage (3%) of articles focus on the social roots of vulnerability and the necessity for political–economic change to achieve “transformative adaptation.” A larger share (27%) locates risk in both society and the biophysical hazard. It promotes “reformist adaptation,” typically through “development,” to reduce vulnerability within the prevailing system. We conclude with a discussion of continuity and change in the conceptualization of adaptation, and point to new research directions.