A note on partition coefficient distributions

Much interest has been generated in assessing the possible risks of contamination for humans and marine life resulting from the dumping of nuclear waste in Arctic Seas by the former Soviet Union. Models are being used to predict the transport of radionuclides released from the dumping grounds. A key parameter in these models is the partition coefficient representing the uptake potential of marine sediments and seawater for radioactive contaminants. Partition coefficients are dependent upon the independent variables of sediment concentration and the sediment/water radionuclide distribution coefficients. Modelers must use estimated average values for the independent variables because data for these variables are lacking for the Arctic environment. In this note, we illustrate the differences between assuming that partition coefficients can be computed solely from the average values of the independent variables vs. exact probability distributions, and illustrate the technique for one of the radioactive contaminants,¹³⁷Cs. In general, errors in the sediment partition coefficient can be as high as 67% using average values; for¹³⁷Cs. the error is about 37%.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

微动多阶瑞雷波SPAC系数反演方法及应用研究

为充分利用微动信号中基阶和高阶模式瑞雷波,本文研究了基于多阶瑞雷波SPAC系数直接反演的方法.该方法首先基于地层介质响应计算多阶瑞雷波的能量占比,考虑实际观测台阵有限台站个数对SPAC系数影响,正演计算多阶瑞雷波SPAC系数,再采用快速模拟退火算法对其反演以获得地下介质横波速度结构.在此基础上,本文通过数值模拟验证该方法的可靠性,分别选取三种典型地质模型,基于模式叠加算法合成理论微动信号,采用本文方法计算其理论多阶瑞雷波SPAC系数并反演,给出反演结果与真实模型对比.我们将该方法应用于上海中心城区的地质调查中,通过与钻探结果对比,进一步验证该方法的有效性.本文理论与实际应用研究表明,基于多阶瑞雷波SPAC系数直接反演的微动探测方法有助于提高反演结果的可靠性,尤其对含软硬夹层的复杂地层介质,可提高探测精度.     

汶川8.0级地震前龙门山地区小震活动与固体潮的关系

通过对汶川8.0级地震前,龙门山地区小震活动与月球上中天、下中天时刻对应关系的讨论,得到龙门山小震活动与月球引潮力的低潮对应关系不明显.另外,对龙门山小震与固体潮理论曲线对应的讨论,得到每组小震的头震在接近固体潮曲线的谷底发生,即地震的发生与固体潮的低潮有关.在临近大震前,地震多发生在固体潮曲线的上升部位,即引潮力增长...     

MVLL算法中地表断裂特征的自适应窗口变化策略研究

针对线阵CCD影像,研究了MVLL算法的匹配走向,得出了匹配走向即建筑物底部至对应屋顶的连线在匹配过程中为近似直线的结论。分析了MVLL算法中地表断裂特征通常匹配至屋底的匹配难点,改进了相关参数自适应调整算法,给出了自适应窗口变化算法的流程。两组ADS40线阵影像的断裂特征匹配实验表明,经过自适应窗口变化后,地表断裂特征能够成功匹配,MVLL算法的自适应性增强。     

Radar Observations of Leonid Meteor Shower 2003

Observations carried out during Leonid meteor shower 2003, by using Indian MST radar (13.46^N, 79.18^E; dip 12.5^N) are used to determine the number density of meteoroids through the cross section of the meteor streams. Cross sections are calculated for a number of classes of echo duration (particle size). They are also used to determine the relative flux of the shower in particle size ranges producing radar meteor echoes having durations <0.4 s, 0.4–1 s and >1 s. Mean activity profiles along the Earth's passage through the stream show a systematic change of the peak activity and the width of the stream depending on the distribution of echo durations across the stream. The patterns of mass distribution index s are presented and discussed.     

浅水方程模拟中确定糙率的回归系数法

基于水流模拟本身就是模拟模型回归求真(即实体原型)过程的认识,从模拟模型和实体原型之间的相关关系出发,应用统计学中的线性回归分析方法,通过回归系数建立了模型与原型糙率系数之间的关系式,提出了二维浅水方程模拟中糙率确定的回归系数法。数值试验表明,该方法并不依赖于糙率系数的初值,具有稳定性好、收敛速度快的特点;对磨刀门水道水流的数值模拟应用显示,该方法能有效地改善模拟计算的精度,具有较好的适应能力,简便实用,为二维浅水流动模拟计算时率定糙率系数提供了一种有效途径。     

全极化合成孔径雷达近岸风场反演研究

Coastal winds are strongly influenced by topology and discontinuity between land and sea surfaces. Wind assessment from remote sensing in such a complex area remains a challenge. Space-borne scatterometer does not provide any information about the coastal wind field, as the coarse spatial resolution hampers the radar backscattering. Synthetic aperture radar （SAR） with a high spatial resolution and all-weather observation abilities has become one of the most important tools for ocean wind retrieval, especially in the coastal area. Conventional methods of wind field retrieval from SAR, however, require wind direction as initial information, such as the wind direction from numerical weather prediction models （NWP）, which may not match the time of SAR image acquiring. Fortunately, the polarimetric observations of SAR enable independent wind retrieval from SAR images alone. In order to accurately measure coastal wind fields, this paper proposes a new method of using co-polarization backscattering coefficients from polarimetric SAR observations up to polarimetric correlation backscattering coefficients, which are acquired from the conjugate product of co-polarization backscatter and cross-polarization backscatter. Co-polarization backscattering coefficients and polarimetric correlation backscattering coefficients are obtained form Radarsat-2 single-look complex （SLC） data.The maximum likelihood estimation is used to gain the initial results followed by the coarse spatial filtering and fine spatial filtering. Wind direction accuracy of the final inversion results is 10.67 with a wind speed accuracy of 0.32 m/s. Unlike previous methods, the methods described in this article utilize the SAR data itself to obtain the wind vectors and do not need external wind directional information. High spatial resolution and high accuracy are the most important features of the method described herein since the use of full polarimetric observations contains more information about the space measured.This article is a useful addition to the work of independent SAR wind retrieval. The experimental results herein show that it is feasible to employ the co-polarimetric backscattering coefficients and the polarimetric correlation backscattering coefficients for coastal wind field retrieval.     

海-气界面动量通量的估计方法分析与应用

首次将经验模态分解方法引入湍流稳定性分析,与传统的线性和滑动平均去势方法进行了比较,发现经验模态分解方法的去势效果最好。基于"南海平台通量观测计划"(FOPSCS)近两年的连续通量观测数据,得到了22 476个摩擦速度的估算值,结果表明,当风速小于5m/s时,拖曳系数随风速增大而减小,而风速大于5m/s时,拖曳系数随风速增大而增大,两种情形分别反映了黏性表皮摩擦和波浪引起的形状阻力对海面风应力的贡献。同时发现短风区情形的拖曳系数大于长风区情形,说明波浪成长状态会对海-气界面动量交换产生影响。     

位置地图情境分类分级与切换研究

情境建模是拓展移动地图应用,提供个性化位置服务的有效工具。本文鉴于目前的情境模型存在情境类型区分不清晰、不同情境之间难以切换的问题。首先,剖析了活动与情境分类分级的联系,提出了一种基于活动分层的位置地图情境分类分级方法;然后,在此基础上,研究了情境切换的方式与方法,建立了位置地图情境切换方式与方法之间的对应关系;最后,以用户去机场登机为例,进行了实际验证。