变权组合预测模型在地下水水位预测中的应用

为探讨变权组合预测模型在地下水水位预测中的应用,以内蒙古通辽市东郊为研究区,利用该区1997-2008年的地下水水位埋深数据,采用基于指数预测法、灰色预测法以及线性回归预测法的变权组合预测方法进行水位埋深的模拟和预测。经计算,以上3种单项预测方法的预测值以及组合预测方法的预测值与实际值的误差平方和分别为5.116 1、5.080 1、4.914 8、4.672 3。这表明,利用变权组合预测方法比单纯运用某一种预测方法预测精度更高。并且,由预测值可以看出,到2015年该研究区水位埋深将达到15.39 m,相比2008年递增幅度将达到20%。     

豫西三门峡地区温塘断裂第四纪活动性研究

温塘断裂位于鄂尔多斯块体东南缘,是三门峡盆地的东边界控制断裂,准确厘定其活动性对于理解区域构造演化和判断三门峡地区地震危险性具有重要意义。运用野外地质地貌调查、联合钻孔剖面探测及光释光定年技术,对三门峡地区温塘断裂的活动性进行分析与研究。结果表明,温塘断裂南段出露地表,线性特征明显,断层最新活动时代为晚更新世;温塘断裂中段为第四纪隐伏断裂,断层活动时代为中更新世;温塘断裂北段断层出露,断层活动时代为中更新世。     

基于连续小波变换的大地电磁信号谱估计方法

在基于连续小波变换的大地电磁信号谱估计方法中 ,通过引入整体平均、小波系数收缩和显著性检验等统计技术 ,以提高谱估计的精度 .文中同时讨论了连续小波变换中各种参数的选取问题 ,给出了Morlet小波函数中尺度与傅里叶频率之间转换的经验公式 ,并给出了谱估计的具体算法 .结果表明 ,本文方法可有效压制较强的白噪声和局部相关噪声 .与FFT谱估计方法相比 ,该方法大大降低了对信号记录长度的要求 ,因而对大地电磁信号的处理有实际意义 .     

双相横向各向同性介质分界面上弹性波反射与透射问题研究

从双相横向各向同性介质弹性波波动方程出发 ,利用边界上的 4个连续性条件 ,计算双相横向各向同性介质分界面上弹性波反射和透射系数 .计算表明 ,快纵波在双相横向各向同性介质分界面上 ,要产生反射快纵波、反射转换 qSV波、反射转换慢纵波和透射快纵波、透射转换qSV波、透射转换慢纵波 .反射转换慢纵波振幅和透射转换慢纵波振幅均较小 .频率、耗散和各向异性大小影响着快纵波反射系数的大小 .     

TOGA-COARE IOP期间的海气通量观测结果

在TOGA－COAREIOP期间用涡度相关法对海气热通量进行了船载直接观测．对垂直风速、温度和湿度湍流脉动观测数据的谱分析显示它们在高频区基本满足"－2／3次方律"．对船体简谐震荡影响的讨论从理论上证明该影响在热通量计算中可被忽略．根据以此方法得到的通量求出了中性层结条件下感热和潜热的整体输送系数分别为2．25×10－3和1．26×10－3．对海气边界层特性的分析表明该海域的近海层主要呈中性或弱不稳定层结．海气通量的变化与背景环流形势密切相关,潜热通量主要受海面风场强度的影响,而感热通量变化除了风场的影响外,层结变化也是一个重要因素．用整体输送法计算TOGA－COAREIOP期间以及TOGA期间8个航次的通量结果而得到的Bowen比约为0．1,显示潜热通量是暖池大气的主要热源．     

陕西大旱与太阳活动的关系

本文分析了公元５８０～１９７９年的陕西大早与大阳活动的关系，得到大旱主要发生在太阳黑子的高值段和下降段以及低值段。第２２大阳周峰年已经过去，粗略估计１９９６年是第２３太阳周的谷年。我们预测１９９５Ａｓｌ９９７年大旱１次，１９９７～２０００年基本上无大旱，２０００～２００５年大旱２～３次。     

Observations on seismic wave equation and reflection coefficient symmetries in stratified media

Summary. The equations describing seismic waves in a stratified earth have a number of symmetry properties, one of which has recently been used by Garmany to derive a simple expression for the inverse of the matrix of eigenvectors appearing in the solution of the equations. We review these symmetries of the wave equation in several notations to demonstrate that the property used by Garmany is distinct from the usual symmetries found in the seismological literature. Like the others, the new symmetry has implications for the reflection and transmission properties of a medium. These implications are briefly reviewed in order to show how the new symmetry is placed relative to the others. A limited discussion of the physical origins of the symmetries is given and, though the overall picture is incomplete, it is noted that the new symmetry yields conservation of energy for reflection/transmission at a single interface in all types of media (anisotropic, lossy, etc.).     

Kinetics of the reactions of hydroxyl radicals with aliphatic ethers studied under simulated atmospheric conditions: Temperature dependences of the rate coefficients

Rate coefficients have been measured for the reactions of hydroxyl radicals with five aliphatic ethers over the temperature range 242–328 K. Competitive studies were carried out in an atmospheric flow reactor in which the hydroxyl radicals were generated by the photolysis of methyl nitrite in the presence of air containing nitric oxide. The reaction of OH with 2,3-dimethyl-butane was used as the reference reaction and the following Arrhenius parameters have been obtained for the reactions: OH+RORproducts:

基于复合指数模型的DMSP/OLS夜间灯光影像饱和校正方法

由于OLS传感器航行过程中增益记录和交叉定标的缺失,使得DMSP夜光影像在城市中心出现过度饱和等问题,因此探讨灯光数据去饱和方法在人类活动强度评估和城市时空演化分析等方面具有重要意义。为了解决这一难题,有学者提出使用NDVI修正饱和灯光数据的VANUI指数,为研究灯光数据去饱和提供了简单便捷的思路,然而该指数在部分城市中较难有明显的校正效果。本文在VANUI指数思想的基础上,顾及到人口密度随着郊区到城市中心距离的增加呈现指数型增长,提出了基于复合指数模型校正夜间灯光指数CEANI,为人类活动强度评价等研究提供更准确的结果。研究表明:① 与VANUI相比,CEANI在刻画城市内部饱和区域特征时具有更好的细节,较好地凸显城市内部空间异质性;② 在25组随机样本的相关对比中,CEANI（R²mean=0.79）与辐射定标产品比VANUI（R²mean=0.68）具有更高的相关性;③ 三大城市群中CEANI与常住人口的R²分别为0.767、0.676和0.841,比VANUI（R²分别为0.640、0.553和0.775）分别提高了0.127、0.123、0.066,相较于VANUI,CEANI与常住人口具有更强的相关性,对于人口指标的估算能力更强。     

The Campanian Ignimbrite (southern Italy) geochemical zoning: insight on the generation of a super-eruption from catastrophic differentiation and fast withdrawal

More than ca 100 km³ of nearly homogeneous crystal-poor phonolite and ca 100 km³ of slightly zoned trachyte were erupted 39 ka during the Campanian Ignimbrite super eruption, the most powerful in the Neapolitan area. Partition coefficient calculations, equilibrium mineral assemblages, glass compositions and texture were used to reconstruct compositional, thermal and pressure gradients in the pre-eruptive reservoir as well as timing and mechanisms of evolution towards magma chamber overpressure and eruption. Our petrologic data indicate that a wide sill-like trachytic magma chamber was active under the Campanian Plain at 2.5 kbar before CI eruption. Thermal exchange between high liquidus (1199°C) trachytic sill and cool country rocks caused intense undercooling, driving a catastrophic and fast (10² years) in situ fractional crystallization and crustal assimilation that produced a water oversaturated phonolitic cap and an overpressure in the chamber that triggered the super eruption. This process culminated in an abrupt reservoir opening and in a fast single-step high decompression. Sanidine phenocrysts crystal size distributions reveal high differentiation rate, thus suggesting that such a sill-like magmatic system is capable of evolving in a very short time and erupting suddenly with only short-term warning.