Characteristics of tropical Pacific SST predictability in coupled GCM forecasts using the NCEP CFS

The limits of predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in coupled models are investigated based on retrospective forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) made with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system (CFS). The influence of initial uncertainties and model errors associated with coupled ENSO dynamics on forecast error growth are discussed. The total forecast error has maximum values in the equatorial Pacific and its growth is a strong function of season irrespective of lead time. The largest growth of systematic error of SST occurs mainly over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and near the southeastern coast of the Americas associated with ENSO events. After subtracting the systematic error, the root-mean-square error of the retrospective forecast SST anomaly also shows a clear seasonal dependency associated with what is called spring barrier. The predictability with respect to ENSO phase shows that the phase locking of ENSO to the mean annual cycle has an influence on the seasonal dependence of skill, since the growth phase of ENSO events is more predictable than the decay phase. The overall characteristics of predictability in the coupled system are assessed by comparing the forecast error growth and the error growth between two model forecasts whose initial conditions are 1 month apart. For the ensemble mean, there is fast growth of error associated with initial uncertainties, becoming saturated within 2 months. The subsequent error growth follows the slow coupled mode related the model’s incorrect ENSO dynamics. As a result, the Lorenz curve of the ensemble mean NINO3 index does not grow, because the systematic error is identical to the same target month. In contrast, the errors of individual members grow as fast as forecast error due to the large instability of the coupled system. Because the model errors are so systematic, their influence on the forecast skill is investigated by analyzing the erroneous features in a long simulation. For the ENSO forecasts in CFS, a constant phase shift with respect to lead month is clear, using monthly forecast composite data. This feature is related to the typical ENSO behavior produced by the model that, unlike the observations, has a long life cycle with a JJA peak. Therefore, the systematic errors in the long run are reflected in the forecast skill as a major factor limiting predictability after the impact of initial uncertainties fades out.     

4种海洋微藻对久效磷的抗性与其抗氧化能力的相关性

于１９９４年８月－１９９５年１２月,动用生态毒理学和生物化学实验方法,选用扁藻、叉鞭金藻、三角褐指藻及盐藻４种海洋微藻为材料进行海洋微藻对效磷的抗性与抗氧化能力相关性的实验。结果表明,久效磷在协迫过程中,微藻细胞内产生了过量的对细胞有伤害作用的活性氧,４种海洋微藻细胞内活性氧清除酶－超氧化物歧化酶的活性高低依次为盐〉三角褐指藻〉叉鞭金藻〉扁藻。比较毒性实验证明：４种海洋微藻对久效磷的基本身抗氧化能     

DLA：一个“经典”地震学问题的现代解

本文通过扩散置限凝聚模型的物理学背景和地震学背景以及ＤＬＡ模型对一些地震现象的定性解释等几个方面，讨论了ＤＬＡ模型的地震学意义，并试图以此为基础，探讨这类普适的动力学生长模型应用于地震预测研究的潜力和困难。     

陆相页岩微观孔隙结构及分形特征——以徐家围子断陷沙河子组为例

为揭示陆相页岩微观孔隙结构特征,应用低温氮气吸附-解吸实验,结合扫描电镜分析、有机碳测定及X射线衍射等手段,分析页岩有机质和矿物组成,厘清孔隙结构和分形特征,并探究其影响因素。结果表明：沙河子组陆相页岩矿物组成以黏土矿物、石英和长石为主。储集空间类型主要为黏土矿物粒内孔、长石溶蚀孔和颗粒边缘孔,有机孔隙不发育。氮吸附曲线主要呈现为Ⅳ类吸附曲线,发育H2和H3两类迟滞回线,其中H3型比表面积较低,平均孔径较大,宏孔含量较高。页岩孔体积主要由介孔和宏孔贡献,比表面积主要由介孔贡献。孔径分布呈现双峰态,左峰约为2.7 nm,右峰分布在20~70 nm。页岩发育两段分形特征,分形维数显示H3型页岩孔隙结构非均质性及复杂性较弱。孔隙结构主要受矿物组成控制,与TOC无明显相关性,微孔含量与比表面积越高,宏孔含量与平均孔径越高,页岩孔隙结构越复杂,越不利于页岩气的运移及产出。陆相页岩因沉积环境控制下赋存的腐殖型有机质,从本质上影响了其孔隙空间、孔隙结构及页岩气富集特征,与海相页岩区别显著。     

Analysis of the North Anatolian Shear Zone in Central Pontides (northern Turkey): Insight for geometries and kinematics of deformation structures in a transpressional zone

The western part of the North Anatolian Shear Zone at the southern boundary of the Central Pontides in Turkey, was investigated in the Kurşunlu-Araç area by means of a geological-structural field study. In this area the North Anatolian Shear Zone results in a transpressional deformation zone that extends between two master faults striking parallel to the main shear direction. The main systems of structures identified in the deformation zone appear to be oriented parallel to the directions predicted by Riedel theoretical model. Nevertheless, the strain partitioning is more complicated than predicted by theory. The structural analysis suggests a polyphase deformation characterized by a steady component of transcurrence associated with alternance of compression and extension. Along each of theoretical directions the combination of double verging structures can be observed, with folds and thrust surfaces root into high-angle shear zones, according to flower-type geometries. The discrepancies of directions, kinematics and geometries from theoretical models are due to transpressive and/or transtensive nature of the deformation. According to the observed outcropping structures, we propose a conceptual model for the North Anatolian Shear Zone, interpreting it as a crustal-scale positive flower structure.     

中国东部扬子板块同华北板块在中──晚三叠世拼接的沉积学证据

下扬子区中－晚三叠世黄马青群为湖相沉积，其边缘相带发育完整，而前黄马青期海相沉积的西北缘相带缺失，说明由于扬子板块同华北板块的拼接作用导致了黄马青期盆地的新生与前黄马青期盆地的构造侵蚀。黄马青群底部产出一系列扇砾岩，标志着在板块拼接早期，下扬子区地壳已开始受到构造变形。黄马青群砂岩中含有多硅白云母、变质岩及构造岩岩屑，砂岩中所含变质型重矿物组合与构成大别地块及张八岭隆起的宿松群及张八岭群同源。砂岩的地球化学特征还显示，其沉积盆地属于走滑盆地，盆地同具有很厚地壳的基底隆起带相邻。     

农产品现货价格与期货价格关联研究

农产品现货价格无论从短期还是长期影响期货价格的统计特征都是显著的,通过建立假设,利用VEC模型,选取农产品现货月度数据,根据期货市场日数据加权计算其月度数据,进一步探析了现货影响期货的程度及其机理。逐步控制模型中的其他变量,结果验证其经济意义是历史现货价格数据影响期货价格也是显著的,但是单个农产品现货和期货价格的影响程度是不一致的,有的影响方向是相反的。从单一品种农产品价格来看,现货市场与期货市场相关度极高,对于大豆、棉花、豆粕和强麦来说,现货价格上涨1%,期货价格上涨幅度则分别为0.948%、0.836%、0.873%和0.845%,对于小麦和大豆来说,现货价格上涨1%,期货价格上涨幅度接近1%;期货价格的变动一方面直接受到现货价格的影响,另一方面还受到影响现货价格变动的因素的间接影响。拆借利率、M2、进出口总值的估计系数均显著为正,证实了农产品供求因素(生产量、进口量、出口量、世界总产量、世界总出口量)、货币政策、货币供应量、利率和汇率等的变动,都直接影响到期货价格。农产品现货价格和期货价格是具有联动影响的,因此,适度且分类引导现货价格,建立单品种农产品价格预警机制,平抑农产品期货市场上大的波动,有利于我国农产品期货市场的健康发展;同时,因为期货市场具有价格发现功能,期货价格的稳定对当前的农产品现货也具有引导作用,会促进农产品现货市场的良性发展。     

大柳树坝址工程断错效应分析

坐落于中卫-同心活动断裂带中间部位的黄河黑山峡大柳树坝址,距F201发震断层垂直距离不足1.5km。统计表明,在青藏高原及其周缘地区,当发生Ⅶ级以上破坏性地震时,距发震断裂两侧3～5km的范围内都有可能出现断层的分支破裂、次生破裂等错断效应。大柳树坝址处于Ⅶ级以上地震时的分支破裂发生带内,因此,存在工程错断效应问题。三维有限元数值模拟结果表明,断层F201发生错动时,坝址地段断层F93、F39、F40相对于F201的错动比率处分别达到14.38%、12.00%和9.84%以上。     

利用夷平面的变形进行断陷地块构造反演——以京西北蔚广盆地南缘断裂带为例

当前活动断层研究主要关注单条断层本身,如果将研究尺度拓展到活动地块,则可以整体上更好地理解各断层活动的关联性。利用层状地貌面累积的构造变形来反演活动地块构造运动是一种行之有效的方法。近两年,国产高分卫星产出了海量、高分辨率的影像资料,与此同时GIS 平台与技术也得到了快速的发展,这些都为利用华北山地夷平面反演京西北盆岭构造区内断陷地块的构造运动提供了契机。本文基于国产GF2卫星1 m 全色与4 m 多光谱影像、1∶50 000 数字线划地图,借助ArcGIS 平台,解译出蔚广盆地南缘断裂带上升盘地块 中发育有典型的甸子梁面、唐县面两期夷平面,提取出了能够反映它们构造变形的定量参数,对其构造变形规律进行的分析表明：北东向断裂（F）贯通了蔚广盆地及其西南方的灵丘盆地,相应地将前者的上升盘地块划分为东西两个次级地块,并使得前者的主边界断裂在此 发生应变分解,并将部分应变传递给了灵丘断陷盆地系统。蔚广盆地及其周缘邻区的断陷盆地统一地受到南东-北西向区域引张应力场的作用,相应地形成了以北东向为主的断层形迹。岩性的差异造成了断层F两侧两种不同的断块运动方式,F西侧在太古代变质基底内发生断陷,使得断块整体掀斜,而在F 东侧,燕山期侵入花岗岩体阻碍了断块的整体掀斜,断块通过调整其运动方式,使得掀斜程度从边缘向内部逐渐降低,F 作为调节断层,衔接了其两侧两种不同变形方式。     

东营凹陷中生代原型盆地恢复及其演化

综合利用三维地震、测井及地球化学等资料,详细解剖断裂体系的静态和动态发育特征;运用多种剥蚀量恢复方法,求取侏罗系、白垩系及中生界剥蚀厚度,对东营凹陷中生代原型盆地格局进行恢复。研究结果表明：中生代活动的北西向断裂构成了该时期的控盆断裂体系,包括石村—平南—滨西断层,陈南断层东段两个主断裂带及王古1断层、王66断层、滨南断层等次级断裂,形成了北断南超的断陷盆地。原始地层沉积由石村—平南—滨西断层分隔,形成东、西两个沉积区,由次级断裂控制形成多个次级沉积区。东营凹陷原型盆地特征与现今盆地格局具有较大差异,整体为东、西两个主洼,东部主洼受陈南断层东段控制,次级北西向断层分割成多个次洼,呈现“盆岭相间”的格局;西部主洼由石村—平南断层控制,沉积中心位于青城凸起及花沟洼陷;该时期平方王潜山、纯化草桥鼻状构造带已经形成,林樊家凸起和青城凸起尚未形成。