灰色预测模型GM(1.1)在水文预测中的应用——以玛纳斯河为例

由于灰色预测模型理论较时间序列预测具有很大的优势,所以在许多领域得到广泛的应用.为将该方法应用于水文与水资源预测,本文以玛纳斯河流量预测为例,应用GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素进行预测,并分析该预测模型在水文水资源中的应用.经分析认为,GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素预测具有重要的意义.     

ARE ISLANDERS INSULAR? A PERSONAL VIEW*

ABSTRACT. I use my personal experience as an islander doing fieldwork among islanders in the West Indies to explore the meaning of “insularity.” I then expand on that personal experience by drawing on literary sources, particularly Homer's the Odyssey and Herman Melville's Moby Dick, both of which express an island worldview. The island worldview is contrasted and compared with the continental worldview on the basis of differing modes of navigation and cartography and differing modes of orientation as defined by cognitive psychologists.     

Flow and transport predictions during multi-borehole tests in fractured chalk using discrete fracture network models

Multi-borehole pumping and tracer tests on the 10 to 100-m scale were conducted in a fractured chalk aquitard in the Negev Desert, Israel. Outcrop and core fracture surveys, as well as slug tests in packed-off intervals, were carried out at this site to obtain the parameters needed for construction of a stochastic discrete fracture network (DFN). Calibration of stochastic DFNs directly to the multiple borehole test data was inadequate. Instead, two equivalent deterministic DFN flow models were used: the vertical-fractures (VF) model, consisting of only vertical fractures, and the fractures’ intersections (INT) model, consisting of vertical and horizontal fractures with enhanced transmissivity at their intersections. Both models were calibrated against the multi-borehole response of one pumping test and their predictions were tested against three other independent pumping tests. The average accuracies of all transient drawdown predictions of the VF and INT models were 65 and 66%, respectively. In contrast to this equality in average drawdown predictions of both models, the INT model predicted better important breakthrough curve features (e.g., first and peak arrival times), than the VF model. This result is in line with previously assumed channeled flow, derived from analytical analysis of these pumping and tracer tests. Ronit Nativ, deceased, may her memory be blessed.     

Archaeoseismological investigation of the ancient Ayla site in the city of Aqaba,Jordan

Many tens of severe earthquake damage patterns were revealed at the ancient city of Ayla. The seismic deformation patterns are of various types, including systematic tilting of walls, systematic shifting and rotation of wall fragments and individual stones, arch deformations and joints crossing two or more stones. Features of later repair, supporting walls and secondary use of building stones suggest that the damage patterns can be explained by two historical devastating earthquakes: (I) revealed in the constructions built during the late Rashidun period (644–656 A.D.); (II) revealed in the structures restored and/or built during the Fatimid period (1050–1116 A.D.). The maximum observed intensity of both earthquakes at the studied site was not less than IX (EMS98 scale). The sources of the seismic events were probably the Dead Sea Transform and Wadi Araba Faults that cross the site obliquely. The last 1995 Nuweiba earthquake with maximum observed intensity VIII has also left its clear traces in the excavated ancient Ayla buildings. The severity of the destruction was significantly increased because of site effects.     

Coastal processes and environmental hazards: the Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venetian (Italy) littorals

The Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venice (Italy) coastlands have experienced significant saltwater contamination of the phreatic aquifer, coastal erosion, hydrodynamic changes and relative sea level rise processes due to natural and man-induced factors. These factors expose coastal areas to morpho-hydro-geological hazards, such as soil desertification, frequency and degree of flooding, littoral erosion, and the silting of river mouths and channels. Man-made interventions and actions, such as beach mining, construction of coastal structures and exploitation of aquifers without an adequate knowledge of the hydrology setting and an adequate management program, worsen these natural hazards. Uncontrolled human activity induces environmental damage to the overall coastal plains. The coastal plains play an important role in the social/economic development of the two regions based on land use, such as agriculture, horticulture, breeding, and tourism, as well as industry. Results of investigations on saltwater contamination, sea level rise and morphological changes recently performed in these two coastal areas are presented here.     

Wave propagation in a general anisotropic poroelastic medium: Biot’s theories and homogenisation theory

Anisotropic wave propagation is studied in a fluid-saturated porous medium, using two different approaches. One is the dynamic approach of Biot’s theories. The other approach known as homogenisation theory, is based on the averaging process to derive macroscopic equations from the microscopic equations of motion. The medium considered is a general anisotropic poroelastic (APE) solid with a viscous fluid saturating its pores of anisotropic permeability. The wave propagation phenomenon in a saturated porous medium is explained through two relations. One defines modified Christoffel equations for the propagation of plane harmonic waves in the medium. The other defines a matrix to relate the relative displacement of fluid particles to the displacement of solid particles. The modified Christoffel equations are solved further to get a quartic equation whose roots represent complex velocities of the four attenuating quasi-waves in the medium. These complex velocities define the phase velocities of propagation and quality factors for attenuation of all the quasi-waves propagating along a given phase direction in three-dimensional space. The derivations in the mathematical models from different theories are compared in order to work out the equivalence between them. The variations of phase velocities and attenuation factors with the direction of phase propagation are computed, for a realistic numerical model. Differences between the velocities and attenuations of quasi-waves from the two approaches are exhibited numerically.     

A numerically calibrated reference level (MP28) for the terrestrial mammal-based biozonation of the European Upper Oligocene

The fauna of the Enspel (Westerwald) and the neighbouring Kärlich (Neuwied basin) fossil deposits correspond to the Upper Oligocene Mammal Paleogene (MP) reference level 28 and 28–30, respectively. Basaltic flows and a trachyte tuff terminating and predating the fossil deposit sedimentation allow to numerically calibrate the MP reference levels by radioisotope dating. Laser fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating on volcanic feldspars yield a time interval of 24.9–24.5 Ma for reference level MP28 at Enspel and a maximum age of 25.5 Ma for the time interval MP28–MP30 at Kärlich. Interpolation between the time intervals determined for the Enspel reference level MP28 and the age of the global Oligocene/Miocene boundary of 24.0 ± 0.1 Ma taken from literature results in time intervals of 24.5–24.2 Ma and 24.2–23.9 Ma for the younger reference levels MP29 and MP30, respectively. These intervals of ≤ 0.4 m.y. for MP reference levels of the latest Oligocene are short relative to older Oligocene MP reference levels 21–27 between 34 and 25 Ma. Since subdivision into MP reference levels essentially is based on assemblages of mammal taxa and on evolutionary changes in tooth morphology of mammals short MP time intervals during the latest Oligocene indicate a rapid evolutionary change relative to the early Oligocene.     

灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型在滑坡预测中的对比应用

在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,经过不同方式的残差修正,分别建立了一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型和二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型。根据滑坡的监测资料,对变形曲线为光滑型滑坡(如黄龙西村滑坡、某滑坡)和阶跃型滑坡(如新滩滑坡、洒勒山新滑坡)分别建立了传统GM(1,1)模型和一阶、二阶残差修正模型,并对不同滑坡各模型的预测精度进行了分析比较。结果表明,残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度明显高于传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。对变形曲线为光滑型的滑坡,二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度一般高于一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度;对变形曲线为阶跃型的滑坡,一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。     

Why is Shirase Glacier turning its flow direction eastward?

We applied an image correlation method to Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data obtained from 1996 to 1998 to examine flow velocity within Shirase Glacier, Antarctica. From the grounding line to the downstream region of the glacier, the obtained ice-flow velocity was systematically higher on the western streamline than the eastern. The differences between the two streamlines were 0.31 km/a in 1996 and 0.37 km/a in 1998, significantly larger than the error estimate of 0.03 km/a. The direction of ice flow was about 312° at the grounding line and changed to 327° at 10 km, 346° at 20 km and 2° at 30 km downstream from the grounding line. The total accumulated deflection is 50° to the east. Under the assumption of the conservation of ice mass across the glacier, the observed eastward change in flow direction can be explained by an asymmetric deepening of bedrock topography, that is, across the 8 km width of the glacier, the eastern side is 50 m (10%) deeper than the western side. This eastward turning of flow direction appears to be accelerated by tributary inlets, that flow to the north and northeast at 60–75% of the velocity of inlets on the western streamline.