青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

Interpolation of wave heights

Remote sensing of waves often necessitates presentation of data in the form of wave height values grouped over large time intervals. This restricts their use to long-term applications only. This paper describes how such data can be made suitable for short-term usage in the field. Weekly mean significant wave heights were derived from their monthly mean observations with the help of different alternative techniques. These include model-free neural network schemes as well as model-based statistical and numerical methods. Superiority of neural networks was noted when the estimations were compared with corresponding observations. The network was trained using three different training algorithms, viz., error back propagation, conjugate gradient and cascade correlation. The technique of cascade correlation took minimum training time and showed better coefficient of correlation between observations and network output.     

Wave reflection from partially perforated-wall caisson breakwater

In 1995, Suh and Park developed a numerical model that computes the reflection of regular waves from a fully perforated-wall caisson breakwater. This paper describes how to apply this model to a partially perforated-wall caisson and irregular waves. To examine the performance of the model, existing experimental data are used for regular waves, while a laboratory experiment is conducted in this study for irregular waves. The numerical model based on a linear wave theory tends to over-predict the reflection coefficient of regular waves as the wave nonlinearity increases, but such an over-prediction is not observed in the case of irregular waves. For both regular and irregular waves, the numerical model slightly over- and under-predicts the reflection coefficients at larger and smaller values, respectively, because the model neglects the evanescent waves near the breakwater.     

Chemosynthetic trophic support for the benthic community at an intertidal cold seep site at Mocha Island off central Chile

We analyzed C and N stable isotope ratios of benthic fauna and their potential food sources at an intertidal methane seep site and a control site without emanation at Mocha Island (central Chile). The objective was to trace the origin of the main food sources used by the local heterotrophic fauna, based on the hypothesis that chemosynthetic production could be partially fueling the local food web at the seep site. Food sources sampled at both sites included macroalgae, particulate organic matter and bacteria-like filaments found growing over the red algae Gelidium lingulatum within the areas of active methane release.     

On the criteria for the initiation of motion in tidal inlets,deterministic and stochastic approaches

Details are given herein of the refinement and application of a three-dimensional layer integrated numerical model to predict morphological changes in tidal basins. The solution of governing differential equations, which consist of the conservation of mass and momentum for the hydrodynamics, the transport equation for the suspended sediment fluxes and the sediment mass conservation equation for the bed level changes are carried out by the use of Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) Finite Difference Method (FDM). The model includes different criteria for the initiation of motion namely Shields (1936, Application of Similarity Principles and Turbulence Research to Bed load Movement, Hydrodynamics Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pub. No. 167), Kolahdoozan (1999, Numerical Modelling of Geomorphological Processes in Estuarine Waters, PhD Thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Bradford, Bradford, UK, 288) and Zanke (2003, On the Influence of Turbulence on the Initiation of Sediment Motion, International Journal of Sediment Research, 18(1), 17–31), to compare different aspects of flow conditions. As the flow is highly turbulent with the random nature of its components, many researchers have tried to express sediment transport processes by using stochastic approaches. In the current study both deterministic and stochastic methods are included in the numerical model to evaluate their accuracy and efficiency. To validate the numerical model results, laboratory measurements are used, with these being obtained from an earlier experimental program undertaken by the authors. Results of a short term bed level changes in a laboratory model harbor are included for the model verification purposes. Comparisons are undertaken using different criteria for the initiation of motion, with the results highlighting that the unsteadiness in the flow parameters included in the numerical model has a major effect on the bed level changes inside the harbor, in compare with the turbulence structure of the flow. The model is then applied to a real case study of the Humber Estuary, located in the UK, with comparisons being undertaken for different criteria for the initiation of motion, using both deterministic and stochastic approaches for the long term bed level predictions.     

海冰对海浪影响研究综述

受全球气候变化的影响,极区海浪尤其是北极海浪在过去几十年发生了显著的变化,使得海冰边缘区海冰与海浪的相互作用愈发显著。本文从物理海洋学的角度出发,较系统地总结了海冰对海浪作用研究的国内外现状,从理论和实测的角度分别探讨了海冰对海浪能量的耗散及其引起的波动频散关系的变化,同时分析了当前海冰覆盖海域海浪的数值模拟与现场观测研究,指出了未来开展有冰海域海浪数值模拟与预报所面临的主要问题,并对该方向今后的研究做出展望。总体来看,尽管海冰对海浪作用的机理复杂且与海冰类型高度相关,但是海冰对海浪能量的衰减与传播距离基本呈指数关系,并且海冰会一定程度上影响海浪的传播速度。未来依然需要更多不同海冰类型下海浪的观测数据以开展进一步的机理分析、模型检验和参数校准,进而实现高精度的业务化预报。     

放射性废物处置研究进展

放射性废物的处置是制约核能可持续发展的关键因素,目前已成为国际社会关注的热点问题之一.针对处置场地核素运移污染的风险问题,对放射性废物的处置及其选址、核素运移试验和核素运移模型进行了回顾和论述.指出采用多重屏障系统进行放射性废物的处置,其安全性是可以得到保障的;处置场的选址应遵循就近原则,并应从环境水文地质的角度来构建...     

分布式水文模型的进展及展望

分布式水文模型是当前水文建模领域最为活跃的研究方向,是解决流域水文、生态和环境问题的有效的途径.讨论了分布式水文模型的结构、与地理信息系统和遥感技术的关系、参数标定、应用领域等问题,指出分布式水文模型发展面临的问题并展望了未来的发展方向.     

结构性粘土研究进展

通过对结构性粘土的研究,可以掌握天然土受荷过程中的变形破坏过程,从而为考虑土结构性的结构物的设计、地基加固等提供依据。近年来随着高、深和大型建筑的兴建,结构性粘土的研究变得尤为重要。从结构性粘土的微观变形机理、结构性土样的制备、土工特性和数学模型等几个方面,介绍了国内外学者的研究进展,认为进行原位测试、结构性土样的制备及细观结构参数的量测方法、考虑细观结构的数值方法和建立考虑微观变形机理的宏观本构模型是进行结构性土研究的发展方向。