文13西块油藏岩石形变对采收率影响研究

低渗透、异常高压油藏弹性能量充足,储层欠压实,岩石易发生弹塑性变形。根据这些油藏特性,从达西定律的角度推导出了室内一维岩芯中最终采出程度与岩石物性变化的近似关系式,并引入渗透率变化因子分析采收率的影响因素,进而以文13西块油藏岩石为例,通过不同流体介质的渗透率压敏性试验,以及不同加压方式下渗透率变化试验,结合降压弹性开采试验和水驱物理模拟试验,以渗透率变化因子为基础,分析并讨论该类油藏的开采方法。结果表明：该类油藏在保持较慢降压速度、较高孔隙压力水平时,能够获得较高的油藏采收率。     

江苏里下河地区洪涝灾害演变趋势与成灾机理分析

江苏里下河地区是相对封闭的水网地区,洪涝频繁。研究该地区洪涝演变趋势和成灾机理对区域防洪减灾具有重要意义。里下河地区洪涝演变趋势表现在洪涝类型的多样性,高水位日益频繁、高水位发生机率加大,致灾暴雨频率增大等方面。在自然成因方面,流域暴雨是成灾的主要原因,锅底洼的形态是洪涝发生的地貌大背景,水系的复杂格局也加剧了洪涝的程度和频度。在人类活动方面,不合理的圩垸垦殖导致湖荡萎缩,减弱了水体调蓄能力;闸坝建设引起河道淤积、排涝能力降低致使洪水位趋高;城镇化改变下垫面性质的水文效应也是洪涝频繁的主要因素。     

1998长江大水期间对流云团活动特征研究

运用1998年6～8月逐日逐时GMS辐射亮度温度TBB资料,统计和分析了长江流域4个大暴雨时段中各自中尺度对流云团活动的一些主要特征,指出长江流域的这场罕见大水是在特定的环流形势下,由315个β中尺度和α中尺度对流云团直接造成的.与此同时,对7月21～22日发生在武汉及其以东黄冈地区的特大暴雨作了较详细的分析,发现它是由4次强对流云团形成发展及向西传播造成的,并指出低空强西南风急流与切变线及特定的地形条件是对流云团形成和发展的根本原因.     

温州海洋与渔业网的建设

本文详细介绍了温州市海洋与渔业局的官方网站“温州海洋与渔业网”建设的总体设计方案和特点。详述了该网站的系统建设流程,包括软硬件的设计、网页内容的设计、网站的制作、网站的测试、发布和维护,充分体现了该网站的技术特点和重要作用。     

From China’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction

The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.     

聚合物驱组合段塞分注实验研究

萨尔图油田南二区东部140号断层以东地区葡11—4油层,以多段多韵律和正韵律沉积为主,平均孔隙度30．0％,平均空气渗透率1980×10^-3μm2。水驱结束时该油层平均含水92％,采出程度39．5％。计划对该区块实施聚合物驱开采。以往经验认为,组合段塞调整注聚技术能够有效改善流度控制作用。然而对组合注入情况下如何进一步提高驱油效果、注入井分注时机、层段注入强度对开发效果有何影响却很少探讨。通过室内驱油实验,在聚驱的组合段塞注入不同时机（水驱空白阶段、含水下降阶段、含水稳定阶段、含水回升阶段）下调整注入强度实施分注以及在含水回升分注基础上进一步调整注入强度,同时对比不分注实验,评价各方案驱油效果。实验表明：不实施分注时聚驱采收率在水驱基础上提高了19．07个百分点,而组合段塞注入时实施分注均能够在不分注基础上进一步提高驱油效果;空白水驱时实施分注采收率提高幅度最大,为26．55个百分点;随着分注时机的滞后采收率提高幅度增加值依次递减,分注时机越早越好。     

Sensitivity of hurricane surge to morphological parameters of coastal wetlands

Given the history and future risk of storm surge in the United States, functional storm protection techniques are needed to protect vital sectors of the economy and coastal communities. It is widely hypothesized that coastal wetlands offer protection from storm surge and wave action, though the extent of this protection is unknown due to the complexities of flow through vegetation. Here we present the sensitivity of storm-surge numerical modeling results to various coastal wetlands characteristics. An idealized grid domain and 400-km² marsh feature were used to evaluate the effects of marsh characteristics on hurricane surge, including the effects of bottom friction, elevation, and continuity (the ratio of healthy marsh to open water area within the total wetland area).Through coupled hydrodynamic and wave model simulations, it is confirmed that increased bottom friction reduces storm-surge levels for most storms. However, increases in depth associated with marsh elevation loss generally results in a reduction of surge. As marsh continuity is decreased, coastal surge increases as a result of enhanced surge conveyance into and out of the marsh. Storm surge is parameterized in terms of marsh morphology, namely marsh elevation, frictional characteristics, and degree of segmentation, which will assist in the justification for and optimization of marsh restoration in terms of storm protection.     

Hyper‐planning Jakarta: The Great Garuda and planning the global spectacle

After a major flood in Jakarta in 2007, the government of Indonesia partnered with a consortium of Dutch engineers and designers to produce a solution. In 2013, this consortium proposed a plan for the Great Garuda, a megaproject that combined a deep seawall and private real estate, both in an archipelago of reclaimed islands that would be shaped like the mythical garuda eagle, Indonesia's national symbol. Despite a range of infeasibilities and opposition, the Great Garuda became the most prominent vision for the city's future. This article argues that the promotion of the Great Garuda was a process of ‘hyper‐planning’, which projected the city as a national triumph and a global spectacle. The plan served the political objective of creating the mere possibility of a ‘new Jakarta’ apart from the perceived chaos of the current capital. Further, the plan functioned as a performative object through its iconic imagery and its circulations. The process of hyper‐planning simultaneously projected a future of urban success, but also displaced the contingencies of the future to the private sector, beyond the purview of the state.     

A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.     

Monitoring of coral communities in the inner Gulf of Thailand influenced by the elevated seawater temperature and flooding

There were two severe coral bleaching events at Ko Khang Khao, the inner Gulf of Thailand, occurred during the prolonged period of the elevated sea surface temperature (SST) in 2010 and low salinity as well as turbidity due to heavy flooding in 2011. The bleaching index (BI) and mortality index (MI) are calculated to compare the susceptibilities of coral species in the two bleaching events. The BI and MI vary significantly among the study sites and bleaching events. The most susceptible corals during both bleaching events are Acropora millepora, Pocillopora damicornis and Pavona decussate, while the most resistant species were Galaxea fascicularis, Fungia fungites, Pavona frondifera, Oulastrea crispate, and Symphyllia recta. The corals Favia favus, Goniopora columna, Platygyra pini, Symphyllia agaricia were relatively more tolerant to high SST but they are relatively more susceptible to low salinity. Coral bleaching is a phenomenon that the dissociation stress of the symbiotic relationship between zooxanthellae and their cnidarian host results in the reduction in photosynthetic pigment concentration. Among stressors, both prolonged exposure of high SST and low salinity, above and below their thresholds, respectively. The long-term resilience of coral communities at Ko Khang Khao and other coral communities close to the mouth of large rivers may depend on the frequency and duration of the exposure on the elevated SST due to atmospheric heating and low salinity due to river flooding.