Seasonal evaluation of rainfall estimation by four cumulus parameterization schemes and their sensitivity analysis

Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Primary cracking of kerogens. Experimenting and modelling C1, C2–C5, C6–C15 and C15+ classes of hydrocarbons formed

Mathematical models of hydrocarbon formation can be used to simulate the natural evolution of different types of organic matter and to make an overall calculation of the amounts of oil and/or gas produced during this evolution. However, such models do not provide any information on the composition of the hydrocarbons formed or on how they evolve during catagenesis.From the kinetic standpoint, the composition of the hydrocarbons formed can be considered to result from the effect of “primary cracking” reactions having a direct effect on kerogen during its evolution as well as from the effect of “secondary cracking” acting on the hydrocarbons formed.This report gives experimental results concerning the “primary cracking” of Types II and III kerogens and their modelling. For this, the hydrocarbons produced have been grouped into four classes (C₁, C₂–C₅, C₆–C₁₅ and C₁₅₊). Experimental data corresponding to these different classes were obtained by the pyrolysis of kerogens with temperature programming of 4°C/min with continuous analysis, during heating, of the amount of hydrocarbons corresponding to each of these classes.The kinetic parameters of the model were optimized on the basis of the results obtained. This model represents the first step in the creation of a more sophisticated mathematical model to be capable of simulating the formation of different hydrocarbon classes during the thermal history of sediments. The second step being the adjustment of the kinetic parameters of “secondary cracking”.     

拟合法15°波动方程有限差分串联偏移

本文把最佳拟合算法（三点和五点差分格式）及串联偏移方法应用在15°波动方程偏移中。由于拟合法的差分因子随着采样间隔、步长、速度等参数的变化而变化,因此与原有的波动方程差分偏移法相比,串联偏移方法能有效的使大倾角归位,克服频散,速度及步长可以灵活变化,运算效率高等优点。     

豫北及其外围地区地壳上地幔结构研究

利用菏泽～长治和郑州～济南深地震测深剖面资料，进行了一维、二维射线追踪走时拟合与合成地震图计算，获得了该区地壳上地幔速度结构。结果表明，地壳上地幔速度结构在纵向和横向上具有明显的不均一性。浅部断裂较发育，对应其地壳深部界面和速度等值线起伏变化较明显。在华北坳陷区南部上地幔隆起的背景上存在两个局部凸起，凸起最高处与浅部的东濮凹陷、汤阴地堑基本对应，Ｍ面埋深分别约３１ｋｍ和３４ｋｍ     

TBP－（X－5）反相色谱分离m－NPF分光光度法测定铀

本文研究了以磷酸三丁酯为固定相，大孔聚乙烯苯（Ｘ－５型）为担体的浸渍树脂、垂直型反相色谱柱，对铀分离富集的基本性能，以及铀（Ⅳ）－间硝基苯基萤光酮（ｍ－ＮＰＦ）一氨三乙酸（ＮＴＡ）－吐温－８０显色体系的反应条件，提出了ＴＢＰ（Ｘ－５）分离，ｍ－ＮＰＦ－ＮＴＡ－吐温－８０光度法测定铀，经标准样品验证，结果满意。     

粘滑失稳及其物理场时空分布的实验研究

摩擦滑动的物理场实验研究表明：（１）能量空间分布的差异是失稳的重要条件，单发型大事件常发生于高能量向低能量的突变带或高能量背景区内的相对低能量区；（２）单发型大事件的孕育过程常常经历若干个能量输入输出循环，产生多个前兆阶段，并在失稳前源区常有一个弱化过程。小震或群发型事件失稳前常常只有一个能量积累与强化的过程，失稳前兆阶段性反映较差；（３）粘滑失稳时断层的位错与声发射的大小未见明显关系     

镉—5—Br—PADAP—溴化十六烷基三甲基铵—十八醇聚氧乙烯(20)醚显色体系的研究及应用

本文研究了镉-5-Br-PADAP-溴化十六烷基三甲基铵-peregalo显色体系的光谱特征,显色条件,络合物的组成、干扰及其消除。实验证明该法灵敏度高,ε=1.3×10~5l·mol~(-1)·cm~(-1)。选择性较好,显色酸度范围较宽pH=8.0-9.5,络合物最大吸收波长为560nm,镉在0-10μg/25ml的含量范围内服从比尔定律。经标准水样、工业废水及生活用水验证,不经分离可测定水中PPb级的微量镉。     

MM5中尺度非静力模式对云南省降水预报检验

根据MM5／V3中尺度非静力模式数值预报结果，检验了该模式在云南2001年汛期（6－10月）的降水预报效果。结果表明，MM5模式降水预报对云南大部分地区的小雨有较高的TS评分，对于全省性大雨过程，MM5模式24小时降水预报的TS评分高于同期预报员的主观预报，但对暴雨及以上量级的降水预报，模式结果不太理想。     

中尺度数值模式(MM5V3)在沈阳区域气象中心的试用

简单介绍了沈阳区域气象中心在微机上调试和试用中尺度数值模式MM5V3的情况，MM5V3在前、后处理上使用Fortran90编程，与MM5V2有一定差别，利用T106L19资料和常规探空报形成经、纬网格的初值，预处理场和侧边界，代入模式前处理系统中，模式运行完毕后，预报产品直接进入MICAPS、Vis5d、Grads系统，进行图形显示，在2000年汛期试用中发现，MM5V3对东北地区的强降水过程有一定的预报能力，预报评分表明，MM5V3的降水预报结果和MM5V2互有优劣，总体来看，MM5V3的预报质量略高于MM5V2。