Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.     

Theory of Basin Scale Dynamics of a Stratified Rotating Fluid

The dynamics of a stratified fluid contained in a rotating rectangular box is described in terms of the evolution of the lowest moments of its density and momentum fields. The first moment of the density field also gives the position of the fluids centre-of-mass. The resulting low-order model allows for fast assessment both of adopted parameterisations, as well as of particular values of parameters. In the ideal fluid limit (neglect of viscous and diffusive effects), in the absence of wind, the equations have a Hamiltonian structure that is integrable (non-integrable) in the absence (presence) of differential heating. In a non-rotating convective regime, dynamically rich behaviour and strong dependence on the single (lumped) parameter are established. For small values of this parameter, in a self-similar regime, further reduction to an explicit map is discussed in an Appendix. Introducing rotation in a nearly geostrophic regime leads through a Hopf bifurcation to a limit cycle, and under the influence of wind and salt to multiple equilibria and chaos, respectively.     

Emplacement mechanisms of the South Kona slide complex,Hawaii Island: sampling and observations by remotely operated vehicle Kaiko

Emplacement of a giant submarine slide complex, offshore of South Kona, Hawaii Island, was investigated in 2001 by visual observation and in-situ sampling on the bench scarp and a megablock, during two dives utilizing the Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) Kaiko and its mother ship R/V Kairei. Topography of the bench scarp and megablocks were defined in 3-D perspective, using high-resolution digital bathymetric data acquired during the cruise. Compositions of 34 rock samples provide constraints on the landslide source regions and emplacement mechanisms. The bench scarp consists mainly of highly fractured, vesiculated, and oxidized aa lavas that slumped from the subaerial flank of ancestral Mauna Loa. The megablock contains three units: block facies, matrix facies, and draped sediment. The block facies contains hyaloclastite interbedded with massive lava, which slid from the shallow submarine flank of ancestral Mauna Loa, as indicated by glassy groundmass of the hyaloclastite, low oxidation state, and low sulfur content. The matrix facies, which directly overlies the block facies and is similar to a lahar deposit, is thought to have been deposited from the water column immediately after the South Kona slide event. The draped sediment is a thin high-density turbidite layer that may be a distal facies of the Alika-2 debris-avalanche deposit; its composition overlaps with rocks from subaerial Mauna Loa. The deposits generated by the South Kona slide vary from debris avalanche deposit to turbidite. Spatial distribution of the deposits is consistent with deposits related to large landslides adjacent to other Hawaiian volcanoes and the Canary Islands.     

Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool

A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977–1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5–1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982–1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean–atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian–Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by 1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.     

Composition and assemblage characteristics of magnetic minerals in layer S<Subscript>5-1</Subscript> of Xifeng and Duanjiapo sections

Relatively strongly magnetic fine components (< 30μm, XS-4J and DS-4J) which are most environmentally sensitive were separated from layer S_5-1 in the Xifeng and Duanjiapo loess sections and analyzed by MPV-3 for their morphometric characteristics and reflectance, SEM-ESD for their element contents and XRD for their mineral phases, respectively. The results showed that minerals in both samples are dominated by detrial Fe-Ti oxides of aeolian origin. In sample XS-4J the reflectance and iron contents of magnetic minerals are usually high. In addition to magnetite (Fe₃O₄), maghemite (γFe₂O₃) and hematite (Fe₂O₃), some Fe-high oxide (72.25 wt%–86.67 wt%), ilmenite (FeTiO₃), and magnetite-ulvöspinel [Fe(FeCr)O₄, Fe (FeNi)O₄] were also detected. In sample DS-4J obvious negative linear correlations were found between Ti and Fe, and the contents of Mn, Si, Al and Ca are usually high and the minerals are dominated by magnetite (maghemite), goethite (FeOOH) and limonite (containing Si and OH). In addition, the signs of corrosion of magnetic minerals and newly crystallized magnetite (maghemite) were recognized. Differences in the composition and assemblage characteristics of magnetite minerals between XS and DS reflect significant differences in source rocks and preserving conditions.     

A technique for modeling the Earth’s gravity field on the basis of satellite accelerations

A technique is proposed for Earths gravity field modeling on the basis of satellite accelerations that are derived from precise orbit data. The functional model rests on Newtons second law. The computational procedure is based on the pre-conditioned conjugate-gradient (PCCG) method. The data are treated as weighted average accelerations rather than as point-wise ones. As a result, a simple three-point numerical differentiation scheme can be used to derive them. Noise in the orbit-derived accelerations is strongly dependent on frequency. Therefore, the key element of the proposed technique is frequency-dependent data weighting. Fast convergence of the PCCG procedure is ensured by a block-diagonal pre-conditioner (approximation of the normal matrix), which is derived under the so-called Colombo assumptions. Both uninterrupted data sets and data with gaps can be handled. The developed technique is compared with other approaches: (1) the energy balance approach (based on the energy conservation law) and (2) the traditional approach (based on the integration of variational equations). Theoretical considerations, supported by a numerical study, show that the proposed technique is more accurate than the energy balance approach and leads to approximately the same results as the traditional one. The former finding is explained by the fact that the energy balance approach is only sensitive to the along-track force component. Information about the cross-track and the radial component of the gravitational potential gradient is lost because the corresponding force components do no work and do not contribute to the energy balance. Furthermore, it is shown that the proposed technique is much (possibly, orders of magnitude) faster than the traditional one because it does not require the computation of the normal matrix. Hints are given on how the proposed technique can be adapted to the explicit assembling of the normal matrix if the latter is needed for the computation of the model covariance matrix.Acknowledgments. Professor R. Klees is thanked for support of the project and for numerous fruitful discussions. The authors are also thankful to Dr. J. Kusche for useful remarks and to Dr. E. Schrama, his solid background in satellite geodesy proved to be very helpful. A large number of valuable comments were made by Dr. S.-C. Han, Dr. P. Schwintzer, and an anonymous reviewer; their contribution is greatly acknowledged. The satellite orbits used in the numerical study were kindly provided by Dr. P. Visser (Aerospace Department, Delft University of Technology). Access to the SGI Origin 3800 computer was provided by Stichting Nationale Computerfaciliteiten (NCF), grant SG-027.     

Occurrence and transport of Irgarol 1051 and its major metabolite in coastal waters from South Florida

Irgarol 1051, a boosting antifouling agent often used to supplement copper based paints was found in surface waters from South Florida at stations collected from the Miami River, Biscayne Bay and selected areas of the Florida Keys. Concentrations of the herbicide ranged from below the method detection limit (1 ng/L) to as high as 182 ng/L in a canal system in Key Largo. The herbicide was present at 93% of the stations and often found in conjunction with its descyclopropyl metabolite (M1) previously reported to be the major degradation product of Irgarol under natural environmental conditions. The 90th percentile concentration calculated for all South Florida samples was 57.6 ng/L. Based on available data on the toxicity of Irgarol to algae and coral, only two stations (approximately 3%) ranked above the LC50 of 136 ng/L reported for the marine algae Naviculla pelliculosa and above the 100 ng/L level reported to reversibly inhibit photosynthesis of intact corals. However, a basic dissipation model for Irgarol using the Key Largo Harbor station as a point source indicated that concentrations of the herbicide decreased rapidly and concentrations below the MDL are observed within 2000 m of the source. No major coral based benthic habitats are documented for all the stations surveyed at distances that Irgarol may pose a substantial risk. However, other types of submerged vegetation like seagrasses are common around the marinas and the effects of Irgarol to such endpoints should be investigated further.     

A simplified method for simulation of strong ground motion using finite rupture model of the earthquake source

We present a simplified method to simulate strong ground motion for a realistic representation of a finite earthquake source burried in a layered earth. This method is based on the stochastic simulation method of Boore (Boore, D. M., 1983, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 73, 1865–1894) and the Empirical Greens Function (EFG) method of Irikura (Irikura, K., 1986, Proceedings of the 7th Japan Earthquake symposium, pp. 151–156). The rupture responsible for an earthquake is represented by several subfaults. The geometry of subfaults and their number is decided by the similarity relationships. For simulation of ground motion using the stochastic simulation technique we used the shapping window based on the kinetic source model of the rupture plane. The shaping window deepens on the geometry of the earthquake source and the propagation characteristics of the energy released by various subfaults. The division of large fault into small subfaults and the method for accounting their contribution at the surface is identical to the EGF. The shapping window has been modified to take into account the effect of the transmission of energy released form the finite fault at various boundaries of the layered earth model above the source. In the present method we have applied the correction factor to adjust slip time function of small and large earthquakes. The correction factor is used to simulate strong motion records having basic spectral shape of ² source model in broad frequency range. To test this method we have used the strong motion data of the Geiyo earthquake of 24th March 2001, Japan recorded by KiK network. The source of this earthquake is modelled by a simple rectangular rupture of size 24 × 15 km, burried at a depth of 31 km in a multilayered earth model. This rupture plane is divided into 16 rectangular subfaults of size 6.0 × 3.75 km each. Strong motion records at eight selected near-field stations were simulated and compared with the observed records in terms of the acceleration and velocity records and their response spectrum. The comparison confirms the suitability of proposed rupture model responsible for this earthquake and the efficacy of the approach in predicting the strong motion scenario of earthquakes in the subduction zone. Using the same rupture model of the Geiyo earthquake, we compared the simulated records from our and the EGF techniques at one near-field station. The comparison shows that this technique gives records which matches in a wide frequency range and that too from simple and easily accessible parameters of burried rupture.     

Mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea: insight from a numerical model

Insight regarding the mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area is gained through an analysis of model-simulated currents, hydrography, kinetic energy and relative vorticity for the 2 years 2000 and 2001. In this a -coordinate ocean model is used. Since the tidal currents are generally strong in the area, care is exercised to distinguish the mesoscale (eddy) motion from higher-frequency motion such as tides, before computing the mean and eddy kinetic energy. The model-simulated response is first compared with available knowledge of the circulation in the area, and when available, also with sea-surface temperature obtained from satellite imagery. It is concluded that the model appears to faithfully reproduce most of what is known, in particularly the upper mixed layer circulation. An analysis of the mean and eddy kinetic energy reveals that many of the mesoscale structures found in the area are recurrent. This is particularly true for the structures off the southern tip of Norway. Also in general, areas of strong mean and eddy kinetic energy are co-located. The exception is the area off the southern tip of Norway, where the eddy kinetic energy is much larger than its mean counterpart. An analysis of the relative vorticity reveals that the variability found is due to the occurrence of recurrent anticyclonic eddies. It is hypothesized that these eddies are generated due to an offshore veering of the Norwegian coastal current (NCC) as it reaches the eastern end of the Norwegian Trench plateau. Here it becomes a free jet, which is then vulnerable to either barotropic instability caused by the horizontal shear in the jet-like structure of the NCC at this point, or a baroclinic (frontal) instability. The latter may come into play when the NCC veers offshore and its relatively fresh water meets the inflowing saline water of Atlantic origin, a frontogenesis that may become strong enough for cyclogenesis to take place. Due to the depth-independent nature of the model-generated eddies, the barotropic instability is the most likely candidate. It remains to resolve the reason for the offshore veering of the NCC. The most likely candidate mechanisms are vortex squeezing or simply that the coastline curvature is large enough for the NCC to separate from the coast in a hydraulic sense.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Noril’sk–Talnakh Cu–Ni–PGE deposits: a revised tectonic model

The Norilsk mining district is located at the northwest margin of the Tunguska basin, in the centre of the 3,000×4,000 km Siberian continental flood basalt (CFB) province. This CFB province was formed at the Permo-Triassic boundary from a superplume that ascended into the geometric centre of the Laurasian continent, which was surrounded by subducting slabs of oceanic crust. We suggest that these slabs could have reached the core–mantle boundary, and they may have controlled the geometric focus of the superplume. The resulting voluminous magma intruded and erupted in continental rifts and related extensive flood basalt events over a 2–4 Ma period. Cu–Ni–PGE sulfide mineralization is found in olivine-bearing differentiated mafic intrusions beneath the flood basalts at the northwestern margin of the Siberian craton and also in the Taimyr Peninsula, some 300 km east of a triple junction of continental rifts, now buried beneath the Mesozoic–Cenozoic sedimentary basin of western Siberia. The Norilsk-I and Talnakh-Oktyabrsky deposits occur in the Norilsk–Kharaelakh trough of the Tunguska CFB basin. The Cu–Ni–PGE-bearing mineralized intrusions are 2–3 km-wide and 20 km-long differentiated chonoliths. Previous studies suggested that parts of the magma remained in intermediate-level crustal chambers where sulfide saturation and accumulation took place before emplacement. The 5–7-km-thick Neoproterozoic to Palaeozoic country rocks, containing sedimentary Cu mineralization and evaporites, may have contributed additional metal and sulfur to this magma. Classic tectonomagmatic models for these deposits proposed that subvertical crustal faults, such as the northeast-trending Norilsk–Kharaelakh fault, were major trough-parallel conduits providing access for magmas to the final chambers. However, geological maps of the Norilsk region show that the Norilsk–Kharaelakh fault offsets the mineralization, which was deformed into folds and offset by related reverse faults, indicating compressional deformation after mineralization in the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic. In addition, most of the intrusions are sills, not dykes as should be expected if the vertical faults were major conduits. A revised tectonic model for the Norilsk region takes into account the fold structure and sill morphology of the dominant intrusions, indicating a lateral rather than vertical emplacement direction for the magma into final chambers. Taking into account the fold structure of the country rocks, the present distribution of the differentiated intrusions hosting the Norilsk-I and Talnakh–Oktyabrsky deposits may represent the remnants of a single, >60 km long, deformed and eroded palm-shaped cluster of mineralized intrusions, which are perceived as separate intrusions at the present erosional level. The original direction of sill emplacement may have been controlled by a northeast-trending paleo-rise, which we suggest is present at the southeastern border of the Norilsk–Kharaelakh trough based on analysis of the unconformity at the base of the CFB. The mineralized intrusions extend along this rise, which we interpret as a structure that formed above the extensionally tilted block in the metamorphic basement. Geophysical data indicate the presence of an intermediate magma chamber that could be linked with the Talnakh intrusion. In turn, this T-shaped flat chamber may link with the Yenisei–Khatanga rift along the northwest-trending Pyasina transform fault, which may have served as the principal magma conduit to the intermediate chamber. It then produced the differentiated mineralized intrusions that melted through the evaporites with in situ precipitation of massive, disseminated, and copper sulfide ore. The Norilsk–Kharaelakh crustal fault may not relate to mineralization and possibly formed in response to late Mesozoic spreading in the Arctic Ocean.Editorial handling: P. Lightfoot