重标极差分析法在地铁变形监测中的应用

为了科学、准确、及时地对地铁隧道结构进行监测分析,该文将重标极差分析法引入到地铁的变形监测中,并以南京地铁为例,对长时期垂直位移时序进行了R/S分析,研究地铁沉降监测点的变化趋势,并将R/S分析的预测结果与实际监测数据进行了对比,预测结果与实测数据具有一致性。结果表明:描述和刻画复杂非线性时序的R/S分析方法,能有效地对地铁变形时间序列数据进行预测分析。地铁变形时间序列数据的Hurst指数,不仅在时间上反映不同变形的趋势性及其强度,而且在空间上反映地铁不同部位的变形趋势特征。R/S分析方法适合变形监测项目的预报分析,在变形监测中具有一定的应用前景。     

金沙江下游及三峡段水文气象因子演变与响应的分析

对金沙江下游及三峡段3个水文站1954~2008年径流序列和2个气象站1951~2008年降雨、气温序列运用滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall法进行趋势性检验,利用有序聚类法、均值检验法分析突变性及小波分析法进行周期性诊断,并应用Pearson法对径流、降雨和气温的相关关系进行研究。研究表明:(1)研究区径流量的年内分配不均匀性和年际变化不显著。(2)金沙江下游段屏山站的径流量呈上升趋势,并在1997年发生突变,但该区域宜宾站的降雨量呈下降趋势并在1991年发生突变;三峡段寸滩站和宜昌站的径流量呈下降趋势,分别在1968年和2005年发生突变,同时该区域沙坪坝站的降雨量呈上升趋势并在1961年和1995年发生突变。(3)径流和降雨时间序列都存在小于10a的主周期以及20a以上的次周期。(4)各水文站夏季径流量受同期降雨量和同期气温的共同影响,而秋季径流量受前期气温的影响最大。     

黑河流域下游额济纳三角洲气候及生态环境变化分析

气候是生态环境变化的重要驱动因子,分析其变化特征对生态环境监测具有重要意义。本文以生态环境急剧恶化的黑河流域下游额济纳三角洲为研究对象,利用1960~2012年额济纳气象站的气温、降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验、回归分析及累积距平曲线分析气候特征,结合重标极差(R/S)分析法预测未来趋势。结果表明:近53 a额济纳三角洲气温显著升高、降水无明显趋势;气温年代际增温幅度差异明显,1980年代、1990年代增幅最大;降水呈"少—多—少"波动变化,21世纪暖干化明显;暖冬现象显著。结合GIMMS-NDVI及东居延海面积、正义峡径流量,通过Pearson相关分析,结果表明:气候暖干化及黑河干流下泄量减少导致东居延海萎缩盐化、植被退化;2003年以后东居延海面积增加是2002年开始人为生态输水的结果,而非气候暖湿化的表现。     

Delineating generalized species boundaries from species distribution data and a species distribution model

Species distribution models (SDM) are commonly used to provide information about species ranges or extents, and often are intended to represent the entire area of potential occupancy or suitable habitat in which individuals occur. While SDMs can provide results over various geographic extents, they normally operate within a grid and cannot delimit distinct, smooth boundaries. Additionally, there are instances where a zone of primary occupancy (i.e., a mostly continuous region where species exists, excluding outliers) is better suited for particular analyses, such as when examining source/sink population dynamics or modeling movement into new habitats. We present a semi-automated method to delineate a generalized species boundary (GSB) from SDM output, which provides a practical alternative to digitizing. This preliminary boundary is then manually updated based on inventory data and historical ranges. We used the method to generate contemporary boundaries for 132 tree species of the eastern United States, which are complementary to the ranges generated by Elbert Little for North America during the 1970s, but are not replacements. The methods we present can broadly be applied to other grid-based SDM to generate GSBs.     

安徽铜陵小铜官山铜矿床稀土元素和稳定同位素地球化学研究

安徽铜陵铜官山铜矿田是中国长江中、下游铁、铜、硫、金成矿带中著名的夕卡岩型矿床.小铜官山铜矿床位于安徽铜陵铜官山矿田,侵入岩体为铜官山石英二长闪长岩.成矿过程包括夕卡岩阶段、石英-硫化物阶段和石英-碳酸盐阶段3个主要成矿阶段.笔者通过对小铜官山铜矿床的氢、氧、碳、硫、硅同位素组成和稀土元素地球化学特征研究,探讨成矿溶液中水、硅和硫的来源以及成矿溶液的演化问题.研究表明,成矿热液早期以岩浆热液为主,随着成矿过程的进行,加入的大气降水比重越来越大,到晚期可能主要以大气降水为主.硫的来源主要有两个方面,即地层和岩浆热液,但以后者为主.硅具深部岩浆或岩浆热液水来源的特点.稀土元素球粒陨石标准化组成模式为右倾型,夕卡岩、矿石的稀土配分曲线类似于铜官山岩体石英二长闪长岩,故认为形成本区的夕卡岩型矿床的热液流体主要来源于闪长质熔体.     

Interpretation of mean‐field bias correction of radar rain rate using the concept of linear regression

In this study, the correction problem of mean‐field bias of radar rain rate was investigated using the concept of linear regression. Three different relationships were reviewed for their slopes to be used as the bias correction factor: Relationship 1 (R1) is based on the conventional linear regression, relationship 2 (R2) is forced to pass the origin and relationship 3 (R3) is the line whose slope is the G/R ratio. In other words, R1 is the regression line connecting the intercept and the mass centre of measurement pairs, R2 is the regression line forced to pass the origin, and R3 is the line connecting the origin and the mass centre. The slopes of all three relationships were reviewed analytically to compare them, and thereby, the effect of zero measurements could be evaluated. Additionally, the effect of using switched independent and dependent variables on the derived slopes was also evaluated. The theoretically derived results were then verified by analysing the rainfall event on 10–11 August 2010 in Korea. Finally, the difference between the bias‐corrected radar rain rate and the rain gauge rain rate was quantified by root mean square error and mean error so that it could be used as a measure for the evaluation of bias correction factors. In conclusion, the slope of R2 was found to be the best for the bias correction factor. However, when deciding the slope of this R2, the radar rain rate should be used as the independent variable in the low rain rate region, and the rain gauge rain rate in the high rain rate region above a certain threshold. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

R─618型钻机大口径钻头用复合型截齿

介绍了一种新型桩基工程中常用的复合型截齿。该截齿经武汉地质勘察基础工程总公司在长江广场与进口截齿和国内仿制截齿应用对比,表现出多项独特性能。     

扎龙湿地周边区域极端气温不对称变化分析

为了了解扎龙湿地对小区域气候的调节作用及其变化趋势。利用MANN—KENDALL检验等4种气候变化趋势分析方法,分析了扎龙湿地周边区域的富裕、林甸、社蒙、泰来气象站1957--2002年最高、最低气温的变化特征。结果表明,最高、最低气温存在明显的不对称变化,在部分时段还存在着反向变化趋势;最低气温的变化还明显地存在着气候突变的特征;这种极端气温的不对称变化,使该区域气温的日较差有明显的递减趋势。R／S分析（改变尺度范围分析法）表明最高、最低气温的变化存在明显的Hurst现象,该区域气候变暖有趋于减缓的趋势。     

Carbon altotropic composition of interstellar grains

Extinktionskurven für Kern-Mantel-Teilchen und für Vielkernteilchen, die allotrope Kohlenstoffmodifikationen enthalten, werden mit Extinktionsbeobachtungen der Sterne R CrB und R Y Sgr im fernen UV sowie mit der interstellaren Extinktion verglichen. Wir zeigen, daß dieses Teilchenmodell mit der beobachteten Extinktion im fernen UV verträglich ist, finden jedoch, daß nur Teilchen, in denen amorpher Kohlenstoff von Graphit ist, die interstellare Extinktionskurve und die der R-CrB-Sterne gut wiedergeben.