Equilibrium trading of climate and weather risk and numerical simulation in a Markovian framework

We consider financial markets with agents exposed to external sources of risk caused, for example, by short-term climate events such as the South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies widely known by the name El Nino. Since such risks cannot be hedged through investments on the capital market alone, we face a typical example of an incomplete financial market. In order to make this risk tradable, we use a financial market model in which an additional insurance asset provides another possibility of investment besides the usual capital market. Given one of the many possible market prices of risk, each agent can maximize his individual exponential utility from his income obtained from trading in the capital market, the additional security, and his risk-exposure function. Under the equilibrium market-clearing condition for the insurance security the market price of risk is uniquely determined by a backward stochastic differential equation. We translate these stochastic equations via the Feynman–Kac formalism into semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations. Numerical schemes are available by which these semilinear pde can be simulated. We choose two simple qualitatively interesting models to describe sea surface temperature, and with an ENSO risk exposed fisher and farmer and a climate risk neutral bank three model agents with simple risk exposure functions. By simulating the expected appreciation price of risk trading, the optimal utility of the agents as a function of temperature, and their optimal investment into the risk trading security we obtain first insight into the dynamics of such a market in simple situations.

《测绘法》适应性浅析

分析了新时期测绘发展面临的新形势,对《中华人民共和国测绘法》规定的有关概念内涵、管理体制、运行机制、准入制度等的适应性进行了探讨,对进一步修订《中华人民共和国测绘法》提出了建议。     

Winter season stratospheric circulation in the SAMIL/LASG general circulation model

In this paper, we examine the performance of the 26-level version of the SAMIL/LASG GCM (R42/L26) in simulating the seasonal cycle and perpetual winter mean stratospheric circulation as well as its variability by comparing them with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results show that the model is capable of reproducing many key features of the climatology and seasonal variation of the stratospheric circulation despite that the model’s mean polar vortex is stronger and more zonally symmetric compared to the obse...     

Comparison of AnnAGNPS and SWAT model simulation results in USDA‐CEAP agricultural watersheds in south‐central Kansas

This study was conducted under the USDA‐Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in the Cheney Lake watershed in south‐central Kansas. The Cheney Lake watershed has been identified as ‘impaired waters’ under Section 303(d) of the Federal Clean Water Act for sediments and total phosphorus. The USDA‐CEAP seeks to quantify environmental benefits of conservation programmes on water quality by monitoring and modelling. Two of the most widely used USDA watershed‐scale models are Annualized AGricultural Non‐Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The objectives of this study were to compare hydrology, sediment, and total phosphorus simulation results from AnnAGNPS and SWAT in separate calibration and validation watersheds. Models were calibrated in Red Rock Creek watershed and validated in Goose Creek watershed, both sub‐watersheds of the Cheney Lake watershed. Forty‐five months (January 1997 to September 2000) of monthly measured flow and water quality data were used to evaluate the two models. Both models generally provided from fair to very good correlation and model efficiency for simulating surface runoff and sediment yield during calibration and validation (correlation coefficient; R², from 0·50 to 0·89, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index, E, from 0·47 to 0·73, root mean square error, RMSE, from 0·25 to 0·45 m³ s^?1 for flow, from 158 to 312 Mg for sediment yield). Total phosphorus predictions from calibration and validation of SWAT indicated good correlation and model efficiency (R² from 0·60 to 0·70, E from 0·63 to 0·68) while total phosphorus predictions from validation of AnnAGNPS were from unsatisfactory to very good (R² from 0·60 to 0·77, E from ? 2·38 to 0·32). The root mean square error–observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) was estimated as excellent (from 0·08 to 0·25) for the all model simulated parameters during the calibration and validation study. The percentage bias (PBIAS) of the model simulated parameters varied from unsatisfactory to excellent (from 128 to 3). This study determined SWAT to be the most appropriate model for this watershed based on calibration and validation results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Air pollution hazard assessment using decision tree algorithms and bivariate probability cluster polar function: evaluating inter-correlation clusters of PM10 and other air pollutants

ABSTRACT

The automated classification of ambient air pollutants is an important task in air pollution hazard assessment and life quality research. In the current study, machine learning (ML) algorithms are used to identify the inter-correlation between dominant air pollution index (API) for PM10 percentile values and other major air pollutants in order to detect the vital pollutants’ clusters in ambient monitoring data around the study area. Two air quality stations, CA0016 and CA0054, were selected for this research due to their strategic locations. Non-linear RPart and Tree model of Decision Tree (DT) algorithm within the R programming environment were adopted for classification analysis. The pollutants’ respective significance to PM10 occurrence was evaluated using Random forest (RF) of DT algorithms and K means polar cluster function identified and grouped similar features, and also detected vital clusters in ambient monitoring data around the industrial areas. Results show increase in the number of clusters did not significantly alter results. PM10 generally shows a reduction in trend, especially in SW direction and an overall minimal reduction in the pollutants’ concentration in all directions is observed (less than 1). Fluctuations were observed in the behaviors of CO and NO_x during the day while NOx displayed relative stability. Results also show that a direct and positive linear relationship exists between the PM10 (target pollutant) and CO, SO₂, which suggests that these pollutants originate from the same sources. A semi-linear relationship is observed between the PM10 and others (O₃ and NO_x) while humidity shows a negative linearity with PM10. We conclude that most of the major pollutants show a positive trend toward the industrial areas in both stations while tra?c emissions dominate this site (CA0016) for CO and NOx. Potential applications of nuggets of information derived from these results in reducing air pollution and ensuring sustainability within the city are also discussed. Results from this study are expected to provide valuable information to decision makers to implement viable strategies capable of mitigating air pollution effects.     

前苏联铁路网的形成、发展和布局

前苏联是世界上铁路运输利用率最高的国家。本文从其铁路发展的背景条件出发，分析了铁路成为前苏联最主要运输方式的原因，并进一步探讨了前苏联铁路网的建设、发展和分布特点，对我国正在进行的大规模铁路建设有一定借鉴意义。     

The Performance of Atmospheric Component Model R42L9 of GOALS／LASG

This paper examines the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). It is a spectral model truncated at R42(2.8125°long×1.66°lat) resolution and with nine vertical levels, and referred to as R42L9/LASG hereafter. It is also the new version of atmospheric component model R15L9 of the global ocean-atmosphere-land system (GOALS/LASG). A 40-year simulation in which the model is forced with the climatological monthly mean sea surface temperature is compared with the 40-year (1958-97) U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NGEP) global reanalysis and the 22-year (1979-2000) Xie-Arkin monthly precipitation climatology. The mean DJF and JJA geographical distributions of precipitation, sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa and 200-hPa zonal wind, and other fields averaged for the last 30-year integrat     

A hybrid method for the vulnerability assessment of R/C and URM buildings

The methodology followed by the Aristotle University (AUTh) team for the vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete (R/C) and unreinforced masonry (URM) structures is presented. The paper focuses on the derivation of vulnerability (fragility) curves in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), as well as spectral displacement (s _d), and also includes the estimation of capacity curves, for several R/C and URM building types. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the hybrid approach developed at AUTh, which combines statistical data with appropriately processed (utilising repair cost models) results from nonlinear dynamic or static analyses, that permit extrapolation of statistical data to PGA’s and/or spectral displacements for which no data are available. The statistical data used herein are from earthquake-damaged greek buildings. An extensive numerical study is carried out, wherein a large number of building types (representing most of the common typologies in S. Europe) are modelled and analysed. Vulnerability curves for several damage states are then derived using the aforementioned hybrid approach. These curves are subsequently used in combination with the mean spectrum of the Microzonation study of Thessaloniki as the basis for the derivation of new vulnerability curves involving spectral quantities. Pushover curves are derived for all building types, then reduced to standard capacity curves, and can easily be used together with the S _d fragility curves as an alternative for developing seismic risk scenarios.     

铅挤压消能支撑框架模型结构试验研究

通过铅挤压消能器的低周反复加载试验,以及安装有铅挤压消能器的钢筋混凝土消能支撑框架模型结构的伪静力试验,主要研究了铅挤压消能器单独受反复荷载时的消能性能以及其在模型结构中所起的消能作用,模型结构的破坏机理和整体消能能力。研究结果表明,铅挤压消能器具有很好的消能能力,在模型结构总耗能中占据了很大的比例,模型结构具有较好的耗散地震能量的能力。     

三峡水库区滑坡时间记录的R/S分析

文章对统计的三峡库区滑坡的发生时间和规模运用时间记录分析,得到滑坡发生的年份统计规律及其发展趋势。首先对所有规模大于等于1×104m3滑坡进行分析,然后将这些滑坡按其规模划分不同等级,分别运用R/S方法进行时间记录分析,结果表明:不同规模等级滑坡的Hurst关系具有相似的特征,这一结果反映了不同规模等级的滑坡之间的统计相似性。研究区滑坡时间分布的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明了滑坡发生具有规律和随机的双重性质。而Hurst指数偏离0.5的程度就衡量了随机性因素与确定性因素在滑坡时间分布中所占的比重。运用R/S方法,可以对一定时间范围内的滑坡涨落做出估计。