一种2 m温度误差订正方法在复杂地形区数值预报中的应用

利用模式三维预报变量,结合地面要素预报产品,采用2 m温度三维插值方法进行地形订正,以确保预报与观测三维空间上的一致性,在地形订正基础上,利用历史月均预报误差作为参考误差,剔除模式系统性误差,获取具备日变化特征的预报产品。基于陕西地区复杂地形条件下的典型观测站点,利用2016年8月28日48 h预报个例进行对比分析发现,三维插值方法有效改善了地形差异引起的评估误导问题,但无法改进模式预报的日变化趋势,进一步采用系统性误差订正后,日变化特征明显改善,特别是前24 h预报效果体现出与实况良好的一致性及更佳的预报技巧。通过2016年夏季统计评估表明,误差订正后的2 m温度预报产品有效改善了周期性误差振荡,均方根误差稳定在2 K左右,显示出明显的改进优势。     

北京西北活动构造定量资料与未来强震地点的讨论

通过阐述北京西北的活动构造定量数据及其精度，用确定性方法、概率方法和综合评分方法，通过排队，比较出北京西北及邻近地区未来强震可能发生的地点，讨论预测结果中存在的一些问题．结果显示，未来强震最危险的断裂段为:阳原盆地南缘断裂B段和A段、延矾盆地的燕水段、宣化盆地南缘断裂、怀安镇南缘断裂东段和阳高——天镇北缘断裂东段等段落．亦即阳原-深井盆地为最危险区；天镇-怀安镇-宣化盆地为次危险区；万全-张家口和蔚县东北-矾山西南为更次危险区．      

Timing of low-temperature metamorphism and cooling of the Paleozoic and Mesozoic formations of the Bükkium,innermost Western Carpathians,Hungary

K-Ar ages of illite-muscovite and fission track ages of zircon and apatite were determined from various lithotypes of the Bükkium, which forms the innermost segment of the Western Carpathians. The stratigraphic ages of these Dinaric type formations cover a wide range from the Late Ordovician up to the Late Jurassic. The grade of the orogenic dynamo-thermal metamorphism varies from the late diagenetic zone through the anchizone up to the epizone (chlorite, maximally biotite isograd of the greenschist facies). The K-Ar system of the illite-muscovite in the < 2 m grain-size fraction approached equilibrium only in epizonal and high-temperature anchizonal conditions. The orogenic metamorphism culminated between the eo-Hellenic (160-120 Ma) phase connected to the beginning of the subduction in the Dinarides, and the Austrian (100-95 Ma) phase characterized by compressional crustal thickening. No isotope geochronological evidence was found for proving any Hercynian recrystallization. The stability field of fission tracks in zircon was approached using the thermal histories of the different tectonic units. A temperature less than 250°C and effective heating time of 20–30 Ma had only negligible effects on the tracks, whereas total annealing was reached between 250 and 300°C. Apatite fission track ages from the Paleozoic and Mesozoic formations show that the uplift of the Bükk Mountains occurred only in the Tertiary (not earlier than ca. 40 Ma ago). Thermal modeling based on apatite fission track length spectra and preserved Paleogene sediment thickness data proved that the Late Neogene burial of the recently exhumed plateau of the Bükk Mountains exceeded 1 km.     

Quaternary changes in delivery and accumulation of organic matter in sediments of Lake Biwa, Japan

A 911-m-long sediment core from Lake Biwa, Japan, provides a record of organic matter delivery and accumulation in this large lake during a succession of tectonic and climatic changes dating back to the latest Pliocene. Sediments deposited since 430 ky are profundal; older sediments vary in setting between shallow-water and fluviodeltaic conditions, with occasional deep-water intervals. C/N ratios identify algal production as the dominant source of organic matter throughout the core, although the proportion of land-derived contributions episodically increases in the fluviodeltaic and shallow-water sediments. Rates of organic matter delivery and burial in lake sediments change in response to glacial-interglacial climate changes over the past 430 ky. Sediments deposited during interglacial intervals have organic carbon mass accumulation rates up to 9 times greater than those from glacial intervals, reflecting interglacial climates that were wetter than glacial climates. Algal production of organic matter increased during interglacial times because of greater wash-in of soil nutrients, and organic matter preservation was enhanced because of faster sedimentation rates.     

Mapping rice-fallow cropland areas for short-season grain legumes intensification in South Asia using MODIS 250 m time-series data

The goal of this study was to map rainfed and irrigated rice-fallow cropland areas across South Asia, using MODIS 250?m time-series data and identify where the farming system may be intensified by the inclusion of a short-season crop during the fallow period. Rice-fallow cropland areas are those areas where rice is grown during the kharif growing season (June–October), followed by a fallow during the rabi season (November–February). These cropland areas are not suitable for growing rabi-season rice due to their high water needs, but are suitable for a short -season (≤3 months), low water-consuming grain legumes such as chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), black gram, green gram, and lentils. Intensification (double-cropping) in this manner can improve smallholder farmer’s incomes and soil health via rich nitrogen-fixation legume crops as well as address food security challenges of ballooning populations without having to expand croplands. Several grain legumes, primarily chickpea, are increasingly grown across Asia as a source of income for smallholder farmers and at the same time providing rich and cheap source of protein that can improve the nutritional quality of diets in the region. The suitability of rainfed and irrigated rice-fallow croplands for grain legume cultivation across South Asia were defined by these identifiers: (a) rice crop is grown during the primary (kharif) crop growing season or during the north-west monsoon season (June–October); (b) same croplands are left fallow during the second (rabi) season or during the south-east monsoon season (November–February); and (c) ability to support low water-consuming, short-growing season (≤3 months) grain legumes (chickpea, black gram, green gram, and lentils) during rabi season. Existing irrigated or rainfed crops such as rice or wheat that were grown during kharif were not considered suitable for growing during the rabi season, because the moisture/water demand of these crops is too high. The study established cropland classes based on the every 16-day 250?m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series for one year (June 2010–May 2011) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, using spectral matching techniques (SMTs), and extensive field knowledge. Map accuracy was evaluated based on independent ground survey data as well as compared with available sub-national level statistics. The producers’ and users’ accuracies of the cropland fallow classes were between 75% and 82%. The overall accuracy and the kappa coefficient estimated for rice classes were 82% and 0.79, respectively. The analysis estimated approximately 22.3?Mha of suitable rice-fallow areas in South Asia, with 88.3% in India, 0.5% in Pakistan, 1.1% in Sri Lanka, 8.7% in Bangladesh, 1.4% in Nepal, and 0.02% in Bhutan. Decision-makers can target these areas for sustainable intensification of short-duration grain legumes.     

三维插值方法在2 m温度评估中的应用

模式地形与实况站点地形高度间固有差异严重影响了2 m温度检验评估精度,传统二维插值方法仅满足预报要素与实况观测间经纬度二维空间上的一致性,而忽略了垂直方向的一致性问题,使得检验评估中预报与观测不在同一三维空间上进行检验,从而引起严重的评估误导.利用模式三维预报变量,结合近地面要素预报产品,建立新的近地面要素三维插值方法,以确保预报与观测在三维空间上保持一致性.利用2013年7月整月24 h预报产品与观测的对比分析发现,新插值方法有效地改进了由于地形误差引起的评估误导问题,在不同地形高度条件下均保持了较为一致的误差分布趋势,显示其评估结论不受地形因素影响,具有更好的实际应用价值.进一步关注新插值方法在复杂地形区不同模拟分辨率条件下的评估改进效果,采用GRAPES区域预报模式（GRAPES-MESO4.0）针对2012年7月个例,对青藏高原复杂地形区进行了不同分辨率（45、15、5和2 km）条件下的60 h模拟敏感分析,结果表明新插值方法在高分辨率条件下（2 km）依然显示出明显的改进优势.     

盐碱地中华绒螯蟹育苗水质调配技术的研究

研究了地下卤水中Na^ ／K^ 对中华绒螫蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)幼体生长发育的影响以及幼体对人工海水盐度的适应性。结果表明：随着地下卤水中Na^ ／K^ 的降低，中华绒螫蟹幼体存活率、变态率和体质量增长率逐渐升高，当地下卤水中的Na^ ／K^ 低于18、6时，中华绒螯蟹幼体的存活率、变态率和体质量增长率与海水对照相比差异不显著；人工海水盐度梯度设置为18～26，Z1→Z2、Z3→Z4、Z5→M各阶段不同处理组幼体存活率和体质量增长率差异显著，而变态率差异基本不显著，各阶段的最适盐度分别为20，22和20。     

Modeling Atmospheric Chemistry: Interactions between Gas-Phase Species and Liquid Cloud/Aerosol Particles

For detailed modeling of atmospheric chemistry it is necessary to consider aqueous-phase reactions in cloud droplets and deliquesced aerosol particles. Often, the gas-phase concentration is in equilibrium with the aqueous phase. Then Henrys law can be used to describe the distribution between the phases provided that the Henrys law coefficient is known. In some cases, thermodynamic equilibrium will not be reached and it is necessary to use kinetic expressions of the rates involved. These rates depend on diffusion constants, accommodation coefficients, Henrys law coefficients, particle size distributions, and several other parameters. This review describes how these processes can be treated in computer modeling and how the necessary data can be obtained. Even though it is written primarily for use in modeling atmospheric chemistry, some parts will also be useful for waste water and pesticide control and in other areas where the distribution of chemicals between the aqueous and the gas phase is important.     

The Speciation of (CH3)2Sn2+ in Electrolyte Solution Containing the Major Components of Natural Waters

Hydrolysis constants of dimethyltin(IV) cation, in different salt solutions (CaCl₂: 0.15 I 0.90; MgCl₂: 0.30 I 0.60; NaCl-–NaClO₄, NaCl-–NaNO₃ mixtures: I = 3; NaCl-–Na₂SO₄ mixtures: I = 1 mol dm^-3) were determined by potentiometric ([H⁺]-glass electrode) measurements. These data, together with previous data (De Stefano et al., 1996b) were interpreted in terms of DHT (Debye–Hückel type) and Pitzer equations. The mixed electrolyte solution results also allowed us to obtain and parameters for the Pitzer equation. Calorimetric measurements were made at different ionic strengths in order to find the temperature dependence of hydrolysis constants and of the relative interaction parameters. The body of results allows us to determine the speciation of natural waters in a wide range of ionic strengths and temperatures.     

新疆塔里木河下游(上段)地区天然草地生态脆弱性研究

塔里木河(以下简称塔河)流域是我国生态脆弱地区之一,其中塔河下游地区为严重脆弱地区。塔河下游地区广大的天然草地主要分布在绿洲-荒漠过渡带,该地带也是一个典型的生态脆弱带。依据有关生态脆弱带评价方法,结合塔河下游天然草地分布的实际状况,建立生态脆弱性评价体系。对垂直于塔河河道不同距离上的草地生态环境进行了分析,得出在距离河道500 m以上的地带草地生态环境表现为中度生态脆弱,<350 m的草地生态环境表现为一般脆弱。评价结果基本符合实际情况,对指导当地合理开发和利用草地资源具有一定的价值。