A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Morphological analysis of the drainage system in the Eastern Alps

We study the morphology of the major rivers draining the Eastern Alps to test whether the active tectonics of this part of the orogen is reflected in the shape of channel profiles of the river network. In our approach we compare channel profiles measured from digital elevation models with numerically modelled channel profiles using a stream power approach. It is shown that regions of high stream power coincide largely with regions of highest topography and largest uplift rates, while the forelands and the Pannonian Basin are characterised by a significantly lower stream power. From stream power modelling we conclude that there is young uplift at the very east of the Eastern Alps, in the Bohemian Massif and in the Pohorje Range. The impact of the Pleistocene glaciations is explored by comparing properties of rivers that drain in proximal and distal positions relative to the ice sheet during the last glacial maximum. Our analysis shows that most knick points, wind gaps and other non-equilibrium features of catchments covered by ice during the last glaciations (Salzach, Enns) can be correlated with glacial processes. In contrast the ice free catchments of the Mur and Drava are characterized by channels in morphological equilibrium at the first approximation and are showing only weak evidence of the strong tectonic activity within these catchments. Finally, the channel profiles of the Adige and the divide between the upper Rhine and Danube catchments differ significantly from the other catchments. We relate this to the fact that the Adige and the Rhine respond to different base levels from the remainder of the Eastern Alps: The Adige may preserve a record from the Messininan base level change and the Rhine is subject to the base level lowering in the Rhine Graben.     

Structural characterization of deep-water deposits in a foreland basin, Silla Syncline (Chilean Patagonia), with applications to depositional processes

Based on our detailed structural characterization, we examine possible relationships between thrust faults and strike-slip faults and thrust-cored folds and depositional units in the Silla Syncline, a 4 km wide fold composed of fine-grained mudstone, coarse sandstone and conglomerate deposits of the Cerro Toro Formation in the Magallanes foreland basin, Chilean Patagonia. The syncline is bounded on its western flank by an asymmetric anticline and on its eastern flank by a broad zone of thrust faults and associated folds, which are oriented sub-parallel to the syncline axis. Deposition of the coarse-grained units of the Silla Syncline appears to have taken place in this structurally defined trough controlled primarily by thrust fault related growth structures flanking the syncline.The syncline and surrounding area have also been deformed by two sets of strike-slip faults, one right-lateral and one left-lateral. The strike-slip and thrust faulting operated contemporaneously for much of their active periods, although it appears that thrust faulting, confined within the fine-grained units, initiated slightly earlier than strike-slip faulting. In addition, younger igneous intrusions at high angle to bedding generally localize along the strike-slip faults. The cross-cutting relationships among the intrusions, strike-slip faults, and flexural slip faults show that all these structures were active during the same period, which extends beyond mid-Miocene.These conclusions support the premise that structures in deep-water sediments are important for understanding not only the deformation of a foreland basin, but also its depositional architecture.     

Magnetotelluric investigations for imaging electrical structure of Garhwal Himalayan corridor,Uttarakhand, India

Magnetotelluric investigations have been carried out in the Garhwal Himalayan corridor to delineate the electrical structure of the crust along a profile extending from Indo-Gangetic Plain to Higher Himalayan region in Uttarakhand, India. The profile passing through major Himalayan thrusts: Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFF), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Main Central Thrust (MCT), is nearly perpendicular to the regional geological strike. Data processing and impedance analysis indicate that out of 44 stations MT data recorded, only 27 stations data show in general, the validity of 2D assumption. The average geoelectric strike, N70°W, was estimated for the profile using tensor decomposition. 2D smooth geoelectrical model has been presented, which provides the electrical image of the shallow and deeper crustal structure. The major features of the model are (i) a low resistivity (<50Ωm), shallow feature interpreted as sediments of Siwalik and Indo-Gangetic Plain, (ii) highly resistive (> 1000Ωm) zone below the sediments at a depth of 6 km, interpreted as the top surface of the Indian plate, (iii) a low resistivity (< 10Ωm) below the depth of 6 km near MCT zone coincides with the intense micro-seismic activity in the region. The zone is interpreted as the partial melting or fluid phase at mid crustal depth. Sensitivity test indicates that the major features of the geoelectrical model are relevant and desired by the MT data.     

Comments on ‘A comparative study of ANN and neuro-fuzzy for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass’

Singh et al (2005) examined the potential of the ANN and neuro-fuzzy systems application for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass. However, the model proposed by them has some drawbacks according to fuzzy logic principles. This discussion will focus on the main fuzzy logic principles which authors and potential readers should take into consideration.     

Development of a 3D GIS and its application to karst areas

There is a growing interest in modeling and analyzing karst phenomena in three dimensions. This paper integrates geology, groundwater hydrology, geographic information system (GIS), database management system (DBMS), visualization and data mining to study karst features in Huaibei, China. The 3D geo-objects retrieved from the karst area are analyzed and mapped into different abstract levels. The spatial relationships among the objects are constructed by a dual-linker. The shapes of the 3D objects and the topological models with attributes are stored and maintained in the DBMS. Spatial analysis was then used to integrate the data in the DBMS and the 3D model to form a virtual reality (VR) to provide analytical functions such as distribution analysis, correlation query, and probability assessment. The research successfully implements 3D modeling and analyses in the karst area, and meanwhile provides an efficient tool for government policy-makers to set out restrictions on water resource development in the area.     

Application of MODFLOW and geographic information system to groundwater flow simulation in North China Plain, China

MODFLOW is a groundwater modeling program. It can be compiled and remedied according to the practical applications. Because of its structure and fixed data format, MODFLOW can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for water resource management. The North China Plain (NCP), which is the politic, economic and cultural center of China, is facing with water resources shortage and water pollution. Groundwater is the main water resource for industrial, agricultural and domestic usage. It is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the NCP as an entire aquifer system. With the development of computer and internet information technology it is also necessary to integrate the groundwater model with the GIS technology. Because the geological and hydrogeological data in the NCP was mainly in MAPGIS format, the powerful function of GIS of disposing of and analyzing spatial data and computer languages such as Visual C and Visual Basic were used to define the relationship between the original data and model data. After analyzing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the NCP, the groundwater flow numerical simulation modeling was constructed with MODFLOW. On the basis of GIS, a dynamic evaluation system for groundwater resources under the internet circumstance was completed. During the process of constructing the groundwater model, a water budget was analyzed, which showed a negative budget in the NCP. The simulation period was from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2003. During this period, the total recharge of the groundwater system was 49,374 × 10⁶ m³ and the total discharge was 56,530 × 10⁶ m³ the budget deficit was −7,156 × 10⁶ m³. In this integrated system, the original data including graphs and attribution data could be stored in the database. When the process of evaluating and predicting groundwater flow was started, these data were transformed into files that the core program of MODFLOW could read. The calculated water level and drawdown could be displayed and reviewed online.     

The double solid reactant method: II. An application to the shallow groundwaters of the Porto Plain,Vulcano Island (Italy)

This paper presents an example of application of the double solid reactant method (DSRM) of Accornero and Marini (Environmental Geology, 2007a), an effective way for modeling the fate of several dissolved trace elements during water–rock interaction. The EQ3/6 software package was used for simulating the irreversible water–rock mass transfer accompanying the generation of the groundwaters of the Porto Plain shallow aquifer, starting from a degassed diluted crateric steam condensate. Reaction path modeling was performed in reaction progress mode and under closed-system conditions. The simulations assumed: (1) bulk dissolution (i.e., without any constraint on the kinetics of dissolution/precipitation reactions) of a single solid phase, a leucite-latitic glass, and (2) precipitation of amorphous silica, barite, alunite, jarosite, anhydrite, kaolinite, a solid mixture of smectites, fluorite, a solid mixture of hydroxides, illite-K, a solid mixture of saponites, a solid mixture of trigonal carbonates and a solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates. Analytical concentrations of major chemical elements and several trace elements (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr and Ba) in groundwaters were satisfactorily reproduced. In addition to these simulations, similar runs for a rhyolite, a latite and a trachyte permitted to calculate major oxide contents for the authigenic paragenesis which are comparable, to a first approximation, with the corresponding data measured for local altered rocks belonging to the silicic, advanced argillic and intermediate argillic alteration facies. The important role played by both the solid mixture of trigonal carbonates as sequestrator of Mn, Zn, Cu and Ni and the solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates as scavenger of Sr and Ba is emphasized.

Neural network prediction of nitrate in groundwater of Harran Plain, Turkey

Monitoring groundwater quality by cost-effective techniques is important as the aquifers are vulnerable to contamination from the uncontrolled discharge of sewage, agricultural and industrial activities. Faulty planning and mismanagement of irrigation schemes are the principle reasons of groundwater quality deterioration. This study presents an artificial neural network (ANN) model predicting concentration of nitrate, the most common pollutant in shallow aquifers, in groundwater of Harran Plain. The samples from 24 observation wells were monthly analysed for 1 year. Nitrate was found in almost all groundwater samples to be significantly above the maximum allowable concentration of 50 mg/L, probably due to the excessive use of artificial fertilizers in intensive agricultural activities. Easily measurable parameters such as temperature, electrical conductivity, groundwater level and pH were used as input parameters in the ANN-based nitrate prediction. The best back-propagation (BP) algorithm and neuron numbers were determined for optimization of the model architecture. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was selected as the best of 12 BP algorithms and optimal neuron number was determined as 25. The model tracked the experimental data very closely (R = 0.93). Hence, it is possible to manage groundwater resources in a more cost-effective and easier way with the proposed model application.