Evaporation modelling by heuristic regression approaches using only temperature data

Accurate estimation of pan evaporation (E_pan) is very important in water resources management, irrigation scheduling and water budget of lakes. This study investigates the accuracy of two heuristic regression approaches, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) in estimating pan evaporation using only temperature data as input. Monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature and E_pan data from three Turkish stations were used, with month number (periodicity information) added as input to see its effect on estimation accuracy. The models were compared with the calibrated Hargreaves-Samani (CHS), Stephens-Stewart (SS) and multiple linear regression methods. Three different train-test splitting strategies (50%–50%, 60%–40% and 75%–25%) were employed for better evaluation of the applied methods. The results show that the MARS method generally estimated monthly E_pan with higher accuracy compared to the M5Tree, CHS and SS methods. When extraterrestrial radiation, calculated from Julian date and latitude information, was used as input to the SS instead of solar radiation, satisfactory estimates were obtained. A positive effect on model accuracy was observed when involving periodicity information in inputs and increasing training data length.     

高原咸水湖水面蒸发估算——以兹格塘错为例

根据兹格塘错流域附近气象站（安多,那曲和班戈）的器测资料和那曲站的实测辐射资料,对兹格塘错水面蒸发进行了估算,结果表明,兹格塘错多年平均（1958－1998年）蒸发量为925．1mm,在估算的41年中,最高的为1111．5mm(1975年）,最低的仅791．9mm(1983年）,5年滑动平均结果揭示,近40年来兹格塘错蒸发存在波动变化,基本上由2个峰值期（1970－1980年和1993－1998年）,1 个下降期（1975－1980年）和2个相对平衡期组成,且总体上呈上升趋势。     

The role of urban surfaces (permeable pavements) in regulating drainage and evaporation: development of a laboratory simulation experiment

Permeable pavements and similar stormwater control devices have not been exploited in the UK, in part because their adoption has been hindered by a lack of detailed knowledge of their hydrological performance. This paper describes a research programme that produced detailed information on the hydrological behaviour of a car park surface. The study involved the construction of full‐scale permeable pavement model car park structures and a rainfall simulator for use in the laboratory. A monitoring procedure was developed in order to measure inputs and changes in drainage, storage and evaporation over short and long time‐scales (2 hours to 3 months). A range of simulated rainfalls, which varied in intensity and duration, was applied to the model car park surfaces. Hydrological processes were monitored over an 18‐month period. Results demonstrated that evaporation, drainage and retention in the structures were strongly influenced by the particle size distribution of the bedding material and by water retention in the surface blocks. In general, an average of 55% of a one‐hour duration, 15 mm h⁻¹ rainfall event could be retained by an initially air‐dry structure. Subsequent simulations demonstrated that 30% of a one‐hour duration, 15 mm h⁻¹ rainfall event could be stored by an initially wet structure (with a minimum time interval between rainfall applications of 72 hours). Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

聚球藻病毒研究进展

聚球藻是海洋浮游植物群落的优势组分,是全球碳循环的主要参与者和初级生产力的主要贡献者.聚球藻病毒对聚球藻有较高的致死率,聚球藻病毒对聚球藻的裂解对碳的生物地球化学循环有十分重要的作用.对聚球藻病毒的宿主、分类和生活方式作了简介,综述了聚球藻病毒研究方法、生态分布特征、遗传多样性与宿主的关系及其进展,评述了不同基因标记物在聚球藻病毒分子生态学应用上的优缺点,最后提出了聚球藻病毒的研究展望.旨在为海洋病毒生态学,海洋碳循环的研究提供参考.     

Assessment of evaporation and water fluxes in a column of dry saline soil subject to different water table levels

Dry saline soils are common in the arid and hyper‐arid basins located in the Chilean Altiplano, where evaporation from shallow groundwater is typically the major component of the water balance. Thus, a good understanding of evaporation processes is necessary for improving water resource planning and management in these regions. In this study, we conducted laboratory experiments with a natural saline soil column to estimate evaporation rates and assess the liquid and water vapor fluxes under different water table levels. Water content, electrical conductivity and temperature at different depths were utilized to assess the liquid and water vapor fluxes in the soil column. We observed movement of water that dissolves salts from the soil and transports them to areas in the column where they accumulate. Isothermal liquid flux was predominant, while thermal and isothermal liquid and thermal water vapor fluxes were negligible, except for deep water table levels where isothermal and thermal water vapor fluxes had similar magnitude but opposite directions. Differences observed in total fluxes for all water table levels were due to different upward and downward fluxes, which depend on changes in water content and temperature within the soil profile. Both the vapor flux magnitude and direction were found to be very sensitive to the choice of empirical parameters used in flux quantification, such as tortuosity and the enhancement factor for local temperature gradients in the air phase within the column. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

四川芦山Ms7.0级强烈地震震源运动学特征

使用中国数字地震台网记录的区域宽频带波形,通过频率域和时间域多步反演,研究了2013年四川芦山“4·20”7.0级强烈地震的震源运动学特征.基于点源的震源机制解揭示：地震发震断层面参数分别为走向214°/倾角47°/滑动角96°,表现为一次高倾角的逆冲型事件.矩心在水平方向上位于震中（30.303°N/102.988°E）西南向约4.5 km,矩心深度约17 km.平均总标量地震矩M₀为1.16×10¹⁹ N·m,矩震级M_w约6.6.进一步模拟高达0.5 Hz高频波形,获得了芦山地震破裂过程图像,结果显示：此地震为一次不对称双侧破裂事件.破裂半径约15 km,整个破裂面积为706.7 km²,平均滑动量约0.231 m.破裂在8 s内释放了大多数能量.震后0~3 s内,破裂以孕震点为中心向四周同时扩展,3 s后,破裂表现出明显的方向性,主要向北北东扩展,导致位于震中北东向多数台站视破裂持续时间总体偏小,最小值为4 s.破裂约8 s后基本停止.     

土-水特征曲线测定过程中潜在影响因素与异常现象研究

基于压力板仪对相同制样参数的4个环刀试样与12个三轴试样进行土-水特征曲线（SWCC）试验,研究影响试验的各种潜在因素以及相关的异常现象。试验结果表明：即便是相同条件制备的试样,其SWCC之间也会存在差异性,这种差异与土的颗粒级配不良有直接关系,而与平衡时间无关;蒸发效应在SWCC试验中持续存在,并在平衡后期成为失水的主要因素,因此,对平衡条件应适当修正;试样的侧面防护对试样的SWCC影响显著,特别对于大高径比试样,蒸发效应将因其侧面防护脱离而成为失水的主要因素,严重影响SWCC的试验结果;横向裂纹这一异常现象并未影响SWCC测量结果,但其产生机制却可能反应了轴平移技术的不足,值得进一步研究。根据上述研究结果和其他相关试验成果,对SWCC试验提出建议和改进方法。     

S210线芦山-宝兴段崩塌灾害危险性分析及防治对策建议

＂4·20＂芦山地震发生后,作为进出地震灾区的生命线工程省道S210芦山-宝兴段多处发生崩塌滚石等次生地质灾害,堵断交通,威胁来往群众的生命安全,严重影响了抗震救灾和灾后的恢复重建。通过对此路段进行崩塌灾害现场考察,得出此路段的崩塌灾害多发生在大于40°的坡体上,坡向为SW、W和NW,易发岩性为灰岩、砂岩、白云岩和砾岩,切割深度多大于16m。通过GIS进行因子叠加分析,将此路段划分为3级危险度区域,并根据芦山地震灾区崩塌滚石灾害成因机制、分布与活动特征、成灾方式与危害对象,提出了相应的防治对策与建议。     

影响南海混合层盐度季节变化的因素分析

通过对1950-2012年的南海混合层盐度数据进行分析,发现影响南海北部和南部盐度季节变化的最主要因素存在很大的差异.在南海北部,影响混合层盐度季节变化的最主要因素是蒸发降水,其次是水平平流.随着逐步南移,蒸发降水对盐度季节变化的影响递减,水平平流的影响逐渐增大;而在南海南部,水平平流的作用超过蒸发降水成为影响盐度的季节变化的最主要因素.在整个南海区域,冬季海水垂直混合变强,混合层变厚,下层高盐海水进入混合层,使混合层海水盐度变高,从而对冬季海水盐度的上升趋势产生促进作用;夏季南海北部混合层底存在上升流,南海东南部由于Ekman输运导致混合层变厚,都会将混合层以下高盐海水带入混合层,使混合层海水盐度变高,从而对夏季海水盐度下降趋势产生阻碍作用,但垂直混合对盐度季节变化的影响不大,远小于蒸发降水和水平平流.     

1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征

以长江流域123个气象站1960-2011年逐日气象数据为基础, 应用Penman-Monteith模型, 在ArcGIS环境下通过IDW插值法、 TFPW-MK、 R/S等方法分析了全流域潜在蒸发量变化的时空变化、 趋势性和持续性, 并探讨了影响潜在蒸发量的主要气象因素.结果表明: 年潜在蒸发量自1960年以来至2002年呈波动减少趋势, 2003-2009年呈显著增加趋势, 整体为增加趋势; 其中, 上游高原区、 上游盆地区、 下游区年潜在蒸发量呈增加趋势, 中游区呈下降趋势, 增幅最大的是上游盆地区.四季中, 春、 夏、 秋季和年潜在蒸发量具有持续性, 未来将持续增加.最低气温、 最高气温是影响长江流域潜在蒸发量增加的主要因子.