县域尺度中国网络诈骗时空分布特征研究

随着互联网的发展和普及,违法犯罪活动逐渐向网络空间渗透,网络诈骗作为一种典型的网络犯罪,严重威胁社会治安稳定。基于裁判文书网数据库的25 597份网络诈骗一审判决书,采用自然语言处理技术提取了2017—2020年中国县域尺度网络诈骗案件,分析了网络诈骗的时空分布特征。空间自相关分析结果表明,网络诈骗案件多集中在东南沿海地区,包括江苏、浙江、上海、福建以及广东一带。随着时间的变化,2019年安徽、河南的聚集区逐渐消失,而湖南、重庆等地形成了明显的聚集区。网络诈骗犯罪者主要来自福建、湖北、河南、广东、湖南,不同省份的网络诈骗犯罪者分布模式有显著差异,江苏、浙江的网络诈骗犯罪者来源较为分散,广东、福建、河南的网络诈骗犯罪者来源相对集中。     

中国境外经贸合作区的“园中园”发展模式与案例研究

以发展较为成功的中国?印尼经济贸易合作区（简称“中印合作区”）为例,讨论“一带一路”背景下中国境外经贸合作区的成功发展经验与“园中园”发展模式。中印合作区是中国企业在印度尼西亚设立的第一批国家级境外经贸合作区之一,采用“园中园”发展模式。通过实地调研与访谈的方法,构建“园中园”发展模式分析框架,从构建多主体间的合作网络、根植地方的制度文化环境、提供优质的园区环境这3个维度重点分析了中印合作区的发展过程与特征。归纳总结境外经贸合作区发展的成功经验,为未来境外经贸合作区的建设提供案例借鉴与理论参考。     

中国西部大城市开发区企业投资决策的驱动因素——以成都、西安高新区为例

基于成都、西安高新区企业调研数据,在构建企业投资决策驱动指标体系的基础上,采用因子分析法考察企业投资决策的驱动因素,并运用单因素方差分析和相关性检验进一步探究企业异质性与投资决策驱动因素的关系。结果表明:(1)信息通信水平、获取高素质人才、人际关系网络等构成企业投资决策的关键驱动指标,而跨国公司集聚、获取自然资源、决策者偏好等指标的解释力度最小。(2)企业投资决策由6个维度因子构成,其重要程度由高至低依次为政策、产业集群与人力资源、城市环境、城市区位、企业集聚以及关系因子。(3)入园越早、规模越大、总部型及出口型企业均更加依赖政策驱动;私企与外企、一般服务业企业与高级服务业企业、部分迁移企业与非迁移企业、办公区企业与科技园企业、办公区企业与厂区企业分别形成了基本对立的投资驱动偏好。     

Smallholder farmers’ participation in climate change adaptation programmes: understanding preferences in Nepal

Globally, adaptation policies and programmes are being formulated to address climate change issues. However, in the agricultural sector, and particularly in least developed countries (LDCs), concerns remain as to whether these policies and programmes are consistent with farmers’ preferences. This study empirically investigates Nepalese farmers’ willingness to support the implementation of adaptation programmes. To this end, we first developed suggested adaptation programmes in accordance with the adaptation measures identified by LDCs in their National Adaptation Programmes of Actions. We then employed a choice experiment framework to estimate farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for adaptation benefits. The findings indicate that the substantial benefits of the adaptation programmes for farmers result in a sizeable WTP to participate, which would appear to justify the programmes’ widespread implementation.

Key policy insights

• Farmers are willing to participate in, and contribute to, the suggested adaptation programmes in the form of increased access to climate adaptive crop species and varieties, improved soil quality and irrigation and the provision of training in climate adaptive farming.

• Key socio-economic factors influence farmers’ support of adaptation programmes. Older farmers, those households closer to government extension services, larger land holders, those involved in household labour exchange, farmers located in drought and flood-prone regions and those who perceive that the climate has changed are more likely to participate.

• The more farmers are aware of climate change impacts, the greater their preference for adaptation programmes. Increasing farmer awareness prior to implementation of such programmes is therefore an obvious means of further raising participation rates.

     

经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

中国台湾“新南向政策”倍受社会关注。基于经贸视角及2001~2015年贸易数据,在分析经济依赖度及国际竞争力基础上,通过社会网络分析（SNA）方法探讨中国大陆在贸易网络中的地位及其对中国台湾的影响,利用VAR脉冲响应函数对比分析中国台湾与中国大陆、新南向国家的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的影响。研究结果表明：新南向国家对中国大陆的经济依赖度远高于其对中国台湾的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是中国台湾难以替代的;中国台湾对中国大陆的经济依赖度明显高于其对新南向国家的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是新南向国家难以替代的;中国大陆在贸易网络格局中处于核心地位,对于提升中国台湾贸易网络地位起着重要促进作用;中国大陆与中国台湾的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的正向效应明显高于新南向国家。中国台湾当局应秉承“九二共识”,抓住机遇,积极推进“新南向政策”与“一带一路”倡议融合,加强同中国大陆的经贸合作与交流,促进其经济稳定持续发展。     

近15年来国外居民健康的邻里影响研究进展——基于CiteSpace软件的可视化分析

为了全面地分析国外居民健康的邻里影响研究新进展,基于CiteSpace可视化工具,分析Web of Science数据库中2002―2016年以来613篇主题为“居民健康的邻里影响”的文献,以揭示影响居民健康的重要环境因素,为中国健康城市规划提供依据。研究发现：1）近15年来国外居民健康的邻里影响研究关注度持续上升,研究主题集中,主要关注建成环境和社会环境2个方面;2）建成环境和社会环境一方面通过塑造居民交通出行方式、体育锻炼习惯、饮食习惯、生活态度以及心理状态等路径作用于居民健康,另一方面通过压力的累积、资源获取的受限等对健康产生影响;3）目前研究方法主要通过横向研究构建健康行为、相关疾病与环境要素之间的多元量化模型来实现,纵向研究较少。最后对中国居民健康的邻里影响研究提出3点建议。     

基于POI数据的西安市快递自提点空间格局及空间关系研究——以菜鸟驿站为例

基于西安市菜鸟驿站和中国邮政速递的POI（point of interest,兴趣点）数据,综合运用数理统计、文本词频分析、空间分析等方法,解析菜鸟驿站的依托组织形式与服务对象类型,空间分布特征与区位选择特征,及其与中国邮政速递的空间竞合关系。研究发现：① 增菜鸟驿站依托类型以商品销售型为主,社会服务型和个体店铺型次之;其服务对象以社区为主,商业街区、大学城次之;② 菜鸟驿站空间上呈现“中心城区多,周边区县少”的“内密外疏”格局,并沿东北-西南走向分布;③ 区位选择特征,大尺度表现为以钟楼为中心,随距离增加,驿站数量呈现出低-高-低的分布规律;小尺度则在与服务对象出入口距离区间[100,300]内存在二维正态分布;④ 菜鸟驿站与目标对象直线可达距离平均位于200 m范围以内,且街区活力点与其服务对象主体相适应;⑤ 邮政站点与菜鸟驿站均由中心城区向外围区县扩张式发展,前者分布范围更广,二者在地理邻近竞争二者中趋于协同发展。     

Morphological and molecular evidence supports the occurrence of a single species of Zebrias zebrinus along the coastal waters of China

The so-called zebra sole includes a group of small flatfishes characterized by transverse band pairs on the ocular side and distributed throughout shallow waters along the coast of the Indo-West Pacific Ocean. Sev-eral species of the zebra sole have been recorded from the coastal waters of China. Morphological analysis of 1 107 specimens of the zebra sole from 15 successive localities along the China’s coast demonstrated that no significant variations among these localities were found on the basis of meristic counts and morphometric characters. Phylogenetic analysis based onCOI gene sequences of 14 individuals and D-loop of 22 indi-viduals from eight localities showed that they were indistinguishable among these localities. Therefore, both morphological and molecular evidence supported the occurrence of a single species of the zebra sole along the China’s coast. The available name for this species isZebriaszebrinus （Temminck and Schlegel, 1846） in-stead ofZ.zebra （Bloch, 1787）.Zebrias fasciatus（Basilewsky, 1855） andSolea ommatura （Richardson, 1846） are considered here as two synonyms ofZ. zebrinus.     

The Impact of Herder Sedentarization on Natural Resource Access in Northeastern Ghana

The Fulani of West Africa have increasingly migrated to humid West Africa since the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s, drawing opposition from indigenous groups that are concerned about the deprivation of their livelihood and monopolization of resources for herders’ livestock. This research, which involved farmers, shepherds, and Fulani herders, addressed three issues: the nature of indigenous grazing and watering regimes, shepherd–herder relations, and herders’ impact on resource access for indigenes’ livestock. The research indicates that in-community and off-community platforms for resource access exist. The former has not been impacted by the herders; the latter has experienced changes insufficient to constitute an overhaul of resource access at the expense of indigenes’ livestock. Instead, a “shepherd–herder” category of resource access has emerged that is characterized by negotiation for resource space, opening avenues for addressing broader resource access issues, and typically tense indigene–herder relationships.     

Land tenure and agricultural expansion in Latin America: The role of Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ forest rights

Agricultural expansion remains the most important proximate cause of tropical deforestation, while interactions between socio-economic, technological and institutional factors represent the fundamental drivers. Projected population increases could further raise the pressure on the remaining forests, unless agricultural intensification allows raising agricultural output without expanding agricultural areas. The purpose of this article is to understand the role of institutional factors in governing the intensification process towards the goal of preserving forests from agricultural pressures, with a focus on Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ rights to forests (as embedded in the various tenure regimes). In this paper we adopt an international dimension and analyse the process of agricultural expansion across eleven Latin American countries over the period 1990–2010 to assess whether, in a context of agricultural intensification, different land tenure regimes impact differently on the realization of land-sparing or Jevons paradox. The results, based on a number of multivariate statistical models that controls for socio-economic factors, strongly suggest that the formal recognition of Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ forest rights has played an important role in promoting land sparing or attenuating Jevons paradox.