2007年宁洱MS6.4地震的地面运动预测

根据普洱、 西双版纳地区6个地震观测台站在2008——2009年获取的5级以上的地震资料, 利用接收函数和面波衰减系数, 反演得到了研究区域的S波速度结构和Qβ结构. 基于该结构模型, 采用随机振动理论方法, 预测了2007年宁洱MS6.4地震发生后, 在震中距为10——300 km范围内引起的地面运动, 并借助获取的强震观测记录检验、 评价了该预测结果. 同时, 将地面运动预测结果与利用回归衰减公式计算得到的结果进行对比, 进而讨论该地震动预测方法在地面运动预测中的可行性． 结果表明, 该预测结果与实测结果吻合．      

Impact of land-use induced changes on agricultural productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin

The water resource allocation is greatly influenced by the land use, agricultural productivity and farmers’ income. Therefore analyzing the impacts of land use changes on agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer’s income is an important basis of the further study on the management mechanism and optimal water resource allocation. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin as the study area, this study examined the impacts of conversion from cultivated land to built-up land from 2000–2005 and 2005–2008. Then the agricultural productivity was estimated with the Estimation System for Agricultural Productivity model, and the changes in agricultural productivity caused by land conversion were analyzed. Thereafter, Simultaneous Equations Model was used to analyze the impacts of the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land on the agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer’s income. The results showed that: (1) The agricultural productivity was stable during the whole period, reaching about 2.84 ton/ha, 3.09 ton/ha and 2.80 ton/ha on average in 2000, 2005 and 2008, respectively, but the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had important influence on the spatial pattern of agricultural productivity. (2) The land productivity, total power of agricultural machinery and the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had an overall positive effect on the agricultural productivity. (3) The agricultural productivity and gross domestic product had positive influence on the farmers’ income, while the cultivated land area per capita and percentage of farming employee had negative influence, indicating that the farmer’s income was mainly contributed by non-agricultural income. These results in this study showed that optimal land use management can play an important role in promoting virtuous ecosystem cycle and sustainable socioeconomic development, which can also lay an important foundation for further research on the optimal allocation of water resources in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin.     

数值模拟气流特征和砾石几何参数对床面空气动力学粗糙度的影响

本文应用流体计算软件FLUENT6.3,采用非结构化网格划分技术模拟了气流特征和砾石几何参数对床面空气动力学粗糙度的影响。结果表明：空气动力学粗糙度（z₀）与风速（u）、摩阻速度（u_*）之间存在定量关系：z₀=a exp（bu/u_*）。砾石高度对空气动力学粗糙度的影响显著优于砾石直径,空气动力学粗糙度随砾石密度的变化比较复杂,先增加后减小。FLUENT在模拟风洞砾石床面动力学过程中的成功应用,是我们在研究方法上的一次有益尝试。     

近期天山地震带地震活动固体潮调制的统计分析

利用Schuster检验方法, 以潮汐体应力为计算量, 采用2010年1月1日至2012年8月31日天山中东段M_L≥2.0的地震数据, 对天山地震带地震活动受固体潮触发情况从时、 空两方面进行统计分析。 研究结果显示, Schuster检验p值时间窗平滑结果与天山地震带较强地震的发生对应较好, 尤其是2011年11月1日尼勒克6.0级地震之前很长一段时间, Schuster检验p值时间窗平滑结果一直低于潮汐触发地震的阈值0.05, 而尼勒克6.0级地震发生后, 该值迅速恢复到较高水平, 反应了此次地震的发生与固体潮的密切关系; 从Schuster检验p值空间窗平滑结果看, 尼勒克6.0级地震也处于或接近潮汐调制触发地区。 因而, 从时、 空两方面的检验结果看, 尼勒克6.0级地震的发生受固体潮调制明显。     

台阵地震学方法及对间断面结构的研究进展

地震台阵是为了监测核爆而发展起来的一种地震观测系统。近年来,地震台阵被推广到地球内部速度间断面的研究中并极大地推动了地震学的发展。本文主要介绍处理台阵资料的技术方法,如聚束、倾斜叠加、N次根叠加、频率波数法以及相位加权叠加等,并讨论各种方法的优缺点。在提取微弱但相关信号方面,重点讨论相位加权叠加方法及现有的研究成果。结果表明,这些方法都在不同程度上提高了记录的信噪比,高质量的台阵数据使得地球内部速度结构的成像研究更加精细。     

辽宁区域性冷空气多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子

使用辽宁省58个气象观测站1961年9月-2015年4月气温资料、国家气候中心气候监测指数和NCEP分析资料,分析了辽宁区域性冷空气的多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子.结果表明：辽宁区域性强冷空气、寒潮年总频次都呈下降趋势,而中等强度冷空气年总频次呈上升趋势,冷空气强度有减弱的趋势.区域性冷空气过程年总频次存在11a、6a和3a的变化周期,并且1964年发生突变.秋季冷空气活动最频繁,冬季冷空气强度最强.区域性冷空气初日多年平均值是9月23日,终日多年平均是4月5日,初、终日都出现提前趋势.北半球极涡面积指数与辽宁寒潮频次呈明显正相关关系,寒潮偏多月份极涡较气候平均位置偏南、50°N附近70°～180°E之间纬向风明显偏大,是辽宁寒潮增多的影响因子.     

Seismic response of deep Quaternary sediments in historical center of L’Aquila City (central Italy)

On 6 April 2009 a M_w=6.1 earthquake produced severe destruction and damage over the historic center of L’Aquila City (central Italy), in which the accelerometer stations AQK and AQU recorded a large amount of near-fault ground motion data. This paper analyzes the recorded ground motions and compares the observed peak accelerations and the horizontal to vertical response spectral ratios with those revealed from numerical simulations. The finite element method is considered herein to perform dynamic modeling on the soil profile underlying the seismic station AQU. The subsurface model, which is based on the reviewed surveys that were carried out in previous studies, consists of 200–400 m of Quaternary sediments overlying a Meso-Cenozoic carbonate bedrock. The Martin-Finn-Seed's pore-water pressure model is used in the simulations. The horizontal to vertical response spectral ratio that is observed during the weak seismic events shows three predominant frequencies at about 14 Hz, 3 Hz and 0.6 Hz, which may be related to the computed seismic motion amplification occurring at the shallow colluvium, at the top and base of the fluvial-lacustrine sequence, respectively. During the 2009 L’Aquila main shock the predominant frequency of 14 Hz shifts to lower values probably due to a peculiar wave-field incidence angle. The predominant frequency of 3 Hz shifts to lower values when the earthquake magnitude increases, which may be associated to the progressive softening of soil due to the excess pore-water pressure generation that reaches a maximum value of about 350 kPa in the top of fluvial-lacustrine sequence. The computed vertical peak acceleration underestimates the experimental value and the horizontal to vertical peak acceleration ratio that is observed at station AQU decreases when the earthquake magnitude increases, which reveals amplification of the vertical component of ground motion probably due to near-source effects.     

2011年3月7~8日永胜站震前舒曼谐振异常数值模拟分析

2011年3月10日中国云南盈江发生5.8级地震, 3月11日日本本州岛东海岸附近海域发生9.0级地震。 2011年3月7日、 8日云南永胜地磁台站观测到了舒曼谐振前4阶振幅异常增大。 本文建立了基于三维时域有限差分方法的舒曼谐振模型, 利用该模型对盈江地震对永胜站观测到的舒曼谐振影响进行了数值分析。 通过对实验和模拟结果进行分析, 认为此次云南永胜观测到的舒曼谐振异常不仅与日本地震相关也可能与云南盈江地震相关。     

Equipartitioning is not sufficient for Green's function extraction

The extraction of the Earth's Green's function from field fluctuations is a rapidly growing area of research.The principle of Green's function extraction is often related to the requirement of equipartitioning,which stipulates that the energy of field fluctuations is distributed evenly in some sense.We show the meaning of equipartitioning for a variety of different formulations for Green's function retrieval.We show that equipartitioning is not a sufficient condition,and provide several examples that illustrate this point.We discuss the implications of lack of equipartitioning for various schemes for the reconstruction of the Green's function in seismology.The theory for Green's function extraction is usually based on a statistical theory that relies on ensemble averages.Since there is only one Earth,one usually replaces the ensemble average with a time average.We show that such a replacement only makes sense when attenuation is taken into account,and show how the theory for Green's function extraction for oscillating systems can be extended to incorporate attenuation.     

Contributions respectives des courants et de la houle dans la mobilité sédimentaire d'une plate-forme interne estuarienne. Exemple : le seuil interinsulaire,au large du pertuis d'Antioche,France

This paper investigates the relative influence of waves, wind-induced current and tidal current on the sediment mobility of a macro-tidal environment belonging to the inner shelf seaward of the ‘pertuis Charentais’ (France). This study, mainly based on three-week hydrodynamic in-situ measurements, shows that, for a water depth of 23 m, the swell (rather than wind waves) orbital velocity is large enough to initiate the motion of medium sands that are then transported by currents. Estimations show that medium sand of 0.2 mm is transported during 92% of the measurements, whereas coarse sand and gravel move sporadically, during storm, synchronously with spring tides. Further more, bedload fluxes appear strongly larger when waves are taken into account (370 times larger for 0.2-mm sands). To cite this article: D. Idier et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).