Temporal scaling in river flow: can it be chaotic? / L’invariance d’échelle de l’écoulement fluvial peut-elle être chaotique?

Abstract

Abstract Identification of the presence of scaling in the river flow process has been a challenging problem in hydrology. Studies conducted thus far have viewed this problem essentially from a stochastic perspective, because the river flow process has traditionally been assumed to be a result of a very large number of variables. However, recent studies employing nonlinear deterministic and chaotic dynamic concepts have reported that the river flow process could also be the outcome of a deterministic system with only a few dominant variables. In the wake of such reports, a preliminary attempt is made in this study to investigate the type of scaling behaviour in the river flow process (i.e. chaotic or stochastic). The investigation is limited only to temporal scaling. Flow data of three different scales (daily, 5-day and 7-day) observed in each of three rivers in the USA: the Kentucky River in Kentucky, the Merced River in California and the Stillaguamish River in Washington, are analysed. It is assumed that the dynamic behaviour of the river flow process at these individual scales provides clues about the scaling behaviour between these scales. The correlation dimension is used as an indicator to distinguish between chaotic and stochastic behaviours. The results are mixed with regard to the type of flow behaviour at individual scales and, hence, to the type of scaling behaviour, as some data sets show chaotic behaviour while others show stochastic behaviour. They suggest that characterization (chaotic or stochastic) of river flow should be a necessary first step in any scaling study, as it could provide important information on the appropriate approach for data transformation purposes.     

Stochastically conditioned flow paths and travel time distribution in highly heterogeneous synthesized aquifers / Chemins d’écoulement et distribution des temps de parcours au sein d’aquifères synthétiques hautement hétérogènes sous conditions stochastiques

Abstract

Abstract Characterization of heterogeneity at the field scale generally requires detailed aquifer properties such as transmissivity and hydraulic head. An accurate delineation of these properties is expensive and time consuming, and for many if not most groundwater systems, is not practical. As an alternative approach, stochastic representation of random fields is used and presented in this paper. Specifically, an iterative stochastic conditional simulation approach was applied to a hypothetical and highly heterogeneous pre-designed aquifer system. The approach is similar to the classical co-kriging technique; it uses a linear estimator that depends on the covariance functions of transmissivity (T), and hydraulic head (h), as well as their cross-covariances. A linearized flow equation along with a conditional random field generator constitutes the iterative process of the conditional simulation. One hundred equally likely realizations of transmissivity fields with pre-specified geostatistical parameters were generated, and conditioned to both limited transmissivity and head data. The successful implementation of the approach resulted in conditioned flow paths and travel-time distribution under different degrees of aquifer heterogeneity. This approach worked well for fields exhibiting small variances. However, for random fields exhibiting large variances (greater than 1.0), an iterative procedure was used. The results show that, as the variance of the ln[T] increases, the flow paths tend to diverge, resulting in a wide spectrum of flow conditions, with no direct discernable relationship between the degree of heterogeneity and travel time. The applied approach indicates that high errors may result when estimation of particle travel times in a heterogeneous medium is approximated by an equivalent homogeneous medium.     

Utility of high-resolution climate model simulations for water resources prediction over the Korean Peninsula: a sensitivity study / Utilité de simulations de modèle climatique à haute résolution pour la prévision des ressources en eau dans la Péninsule Coréenne: étude de sensibilité

Abstract

Abstract The utility of simulations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for regional water resources prediction and management on the Korean Peninsula was assessed by a probabilistic measure. Global Climate Model simulations of an indicator variable (e.g. surface precipitation or temperature) were used for discriminating high vs low regional observations of a target variable (e.g. watershed precipitation or reservoir inflow). The formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two distributions. High resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-II (AMIP-II) type GCM simulations performed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and AMIP-I type GCM simulations performed by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) were used to obtain information for the indicator variables. Observed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and watershed-outlet discharge values for seven major river basins in Korea were used as the target variables. The results suggest that the use of the climate model nodal output from both climate models in the vicinity of the target basin with monthly resolution will be beneficial for water resources planning and management analysis that depends on watershed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and outlet discharge.     

CostMAP: an open-source software package for developing cost surfaces using a multi-scale search kernel

ABSTRACT

Cost surfaces are a crucial aspect of route optimization and least cost path (LCP) calculations and are used in awide range of disciplines including computer science, landscape ecology, and energy-infrastructure modeling. Linear features present akey weakness to traditional routing calculations along cost surfaces because they cannot identify whether moving from acell to its adjacent neighbors constitutes crossing alinear barrier (increased cost) or following acorridor (reduced cost). Following and avoiding linear features can drastically change predicted routes. We introduce an approach to address this adjacency issue using asearch kernel that identifies these critical barriers and corridors. We have built this approach into anew Java-based open-source software package– CostMAP (cost surface multi-layer aggregation program)– which calculates cost surfaces and cost networks using the search kernel. CostMAP allows users to input multiple GIS data layers and to set weights and rules for developing aweighted-cost network. We compare CostMAP performance with traditional cost surface approaches and show significant performance gains– both following corridors and avoiding barriers– by modeling the movement of alarge terrestrial animal– the Baird’s Tapir (Tapirus bairdii)– in amovement ecology framework and by modeling pipeline routing for carbon capture and storage (CCS).     

中国东北地壳结构的地震层析成像

中国东北地区自晚古生代晚期以来,受古亚洲洋、蒙古—鄂霍茨克洋、太平洋构造域的叠加作用,壳幔结构极为复杂。本文收集中国东北地区国家地震台网接收的100 980个P波和91 030个S波到时数据,采用地震走时层析成像方法获得了该地区地壳P波和S波速度结构,进而获得了泊松比结构,用以探讨复杂的地壳结构。成像结果显示：中国东北地区地壳地震波速度结构呈明显的横向不均匀性,不同构造单元和构造单元内部都存在不同程度的不均匀性。松辽盆地整体上浅层地壳以低速异常为主,尤其是S波速度,但部分区域分辨率较低,中下地壳存在较大范围高速异常,推测与太平洋俯冲、后撤导致的岩石圈拆沉和热物质上涌等动力学过程有关;北部的大兴安岭重力梯级带和长白山一线主要表现为低速异常,表明具有大范围的岩浆作用,广泛岩浆作用为固体矿产资源的形成提供热源或物源;长白山、五大连池等近代活动的火山下方部分地壳区域均表现了较强低地震波速度和高泊松比异常结构特征,表明仍存在活动的可能。     

Geology and mineralization of the Dayin’gezhuang supergiant gold deposit (180 t) in the Jiaodong Peninsula,China: A review

The Dayin’gezhuang gold deposit is located in the central part of the Zhaoping Fault metallogenic belt in the Jiaodong gold province —the world ’s third-largest gold metallogenic area. It is a typical successful case of prospecting at a depth of 500‒2000 m in recent years, with cumulative proven gold resources exceeding 180 t. The main orebodies (No. 1 and No. 2 orebody) generally have a pitch direction of NNE and a plunge direction of NEE. As the ore-controlling fault, the Zhaoping Fault is a shovel-shaped stepped fault, with its dip angle presenting stepped high-to-low transitions at the elevation of −2000‒0 m. The gold mineralization enrichment area is mainly distributed in the step parts where the fault plane changes from steeply to gently, forming a stepped metallogenic pattern from shallow to deep. It can be concluded from previous studies that the gold mineralization of the Dayin’gezhuang gold deposit occurred at about 120 Ma. The ore-forming fluids were H₂O-CO₂-NaCl-type hydrothermal solutions with a medium-low temperature and medium-low salinity. The H-O isotopic characteristics indicate that the fluids in the early ore-forming stage were possibly magmatic water or mantle water and that meteoric water gradually entered the ore-forming fluids in the late ore-forming stage. The S and Pb isotopes indicate that the ore-forming materials mainly originate from the lower crust and contain a small quantity of mantle-derived components. The comprehensive analysis shows that the Dayin ’gezhuang gold deposit was formed by thermal uplifting-extensional tectonism. The strong crust-mantle interactions, large-scale magmatism, and the material exchange arising from the transformation from adakitic granites to arc granites and from the ancient lower crust to the juvenile lower crust during the Early Cretaceous provided abundant fluids and material sources for mineralization. Moreover, the detachment faults formed by the rapid magmatic uplift and the extensional tectonism created favorable temperature and pressure conditions and space for fluid accumulation and gold precipitation and mineralization.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Classification,metallogenesis and exploration of silver deposits in Daxing’anling of Inner Mongolia and its adjacent areas

By the end of 2020, 83 silver deposits (or ore occurrences), including four super-large-scale deposits, nine large-scale deposits, 33 medium-scale deposits and 37 small-scale deposits or ore occurrences, have been proved. The amount of silver metal exceeds 86000 t with average grade of 100 g/t, which makes Daxing’ anling region one of the the most important silver ore belt in China. However, the metallogenic characteristics and metallogenesis need to be clarified. The silver deposits in the study area are classified into three main types, which are magmatic hydrothermal vein type, continental volcano-subvolcanic type and skarn type, respectively. The supergiant deposits include the Shuangjianzishan deposit (silver metal amount of 15214 t with average grade of 138 g/t), the Baiyinchagandongshan deposit (silver metal amount of 9446 t with average grade of 187 g/t), the Huaobaote deposit (silver metal amount of 6852 t with average grade of 170 g/t), and the Fuxingtun deposit (silver metal amount of 5240 t with average grade of 196 g/t). The silver deposits are mainly distributed in the central and south of the Daxing’anling area, and mainly formed in the Yanshanian period. The silver polymetallic deposits in the Daxinganling area are significantly controlled by regional faults and the junction zone of volcanic rock basins and their margins. The north-east trending deep faults are the most important ore-controlling structures in this area. The distribution of silver polymetallic deposits along the main faults is obvious, and the intersection area of multiple groups of faults often form important mine catchments. The Permian is the most important ore-bearing formation in this area, but some important silver polymetallic deposits occur in Mesozoic volcanic basins or pre-Mesozoic strata. The magmatic rocks related to mineralization are mainly intermediate acidic or acidic intrusions, intermediate acidic lavas, pyroclastic rocks, and small intrusions of ultra-shallow or shallow facies of the Yanshanian Period. The mineralization element combination is mainly determined by the elemental geochemical background of surrounding rocks or source layers. In addition, the type of deposit, the distance from the mineralization center, and the degree of differentiation of ore-forming rock mass are also important influence factors. The article analyzes the prospecting prospects of each silver deposit type in the study area, discusses the relationship between mineralization center and deep prospecting, and proposes that porphyry silver deposits should be paid attention to. In the prospecting and exploration of silver deposits, comprehensive evaluation and multi-target prospecting need to be strengthened because silver can coexist or be associated with a variety of metals.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Acceptance of the international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution – And its implications for China

The international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution has been successful in providing adequate and prompt compensation to pollution victims in its member states. Nevertheless, the attitudes of different countries toward acceptance of this regime have varied considerably. This paper aims to explain three main factors in the acceptance of the regime, including: (1) The level of economic development; (2) the risk of exposure to tanker oil spills; and (3) the financial burden associated with adherence to the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund (IOPC). Using both fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis and an Ordered Probit model, this study found two patterns causing upper-middle and high income countries to have a high acceptance level: (a) Those facing a medium risk of oil spills and having a low financial burden; and (b) those facing a high risk of oil spills. The study reveals that, for a country with a high risk of exposure to tanker oil spills, such as China, with its improvement in economic status it is far better for it to join the IOPC Fund, so as to provide better protection both for potential pollution victims and for the marine environment. The results of this study can also be applied to other countries that are considering whether or not to accept the international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution.     

非线性基线长约束条件线性化近似对模糊度解算影响

GNSS动态相对定位中常附加非线性的基线长约束进行解算, 而LAMBDA方法只能处理无约束或者线性约束的模型, 为了应用LAMBDA方法, 应对非线性约束条件进行线性化近似。通常附加该约束后, 模糊度固定成功率会提高, 但对于超短基线有时反而会降低。何种条件下附加线性化近似的基线长约束条件可以提高模糊度固定成功率尚未有定论。本文基于附加基线长约束的GNSS相对定位数学模型, 推导基线长约束条件线性化近似余项对浮点解的最大影响值公式, 给出基线长约束能否线性化近似的诊断条件。当该条件满足时, 线性化近似余项影响可以忽略, 附加线性化近似的基线长约束可以改善浮点解解算精度, 提高模糊度固定成功率;若不满足, 则线性化近似余项影响可能不可以忽略, 附加约束会因浮点解有偏不能固定为正确的模糊度, 并通过算例验证了相关结论。