模糊分维及其在地震研究中的某些应用

在模糊集理论与分形理论的基础上,引进了模糊分维的概念;给出了模湖容量维D0与模糊关联维D2的定义与确定方法;讨论了模糊分维与常用的分维（清晰分维）的关系.给出了模糊分维在地震研究中的应用结果: 1.根据模糊容量维D0随时间的上升趋势变化,可以划分出大地震活动的高潮期;由模糊容量维D0与模糊关联维D2随时间变化的曲线,可以分析识别大地震前的中长期前兆异常. 2.根据模糊容量维D0随空间和时间的变化,可以划分出未来大震所在的地区,并可发现大震前数年D0呈现增大或减小的趋势. 3.根据前兆数据的模糊时间分维D0随时间的变化,可以发现大地震的短期前兆异常.     

汶川地震诱发大型滑坡分布规律研究

2008年5 12汶川地震由于其超常的地震动力,触发了数百处大型滑坡灾害。本文以遥感解译所获取的汶川地震区112处面积大于50000m2大型滑坡的基本信息为基础,结合代表性大型滑坡实例的现场调绘,对汶川地震诱发大型滑坡的发育分布规律进行了较系统的研究。结果表明,汶川地震大型滑坡分布除表现出与汶川地震诱发区域性地质灾害类似的分布规律之外,因主要源于发震断层瞬间大幅度错动的直接地震动力引发的大型滑坡,其发育分布及滑动、运动方式还表现出自身的特点,具体可归结为以下几种效应: (1)距离效应:约80%的大型滑坡集中分布于发震断裂地表破裂带两侧5km的范围内,距离越远,滑坡分布数量越少; (2)锁固段效应:汶川地震诱发的大型滑坡主要集中分布在与发震断裂的交叉、错列、转换部位及NE段末端等5个集中区段。其中,红白-茶坪段是大型滑坡最为集中发育段,不仅滑坡数量多,而且规模大,汶川地震诱发的最大两处滑坡均分布于此段。其次为断裂NE段末端的南坝-东河口段,该段大型滑坡密集发育,东河口滑坡和窝前滑坡等大型滑坡均出露于此段; (3)上下盘效应:绝大多数(70%)大型滑坡都位于活动断裂的上盘,存在明显的上下盘效应; (4)方向效应:在与发震断裂带近于垂直的沟谷斜坡中,在地震波传播的背坡面一侧的滑坡发育密度明显大于迎坡面一侧,存在背坡面效应。同时,大型滑坡的滑动及运动方向还与各区段断层的错动方向有一定的相关性。在断层活动以右旋走滑为主的青川境内,有相当数量的滑坡表现出向NE方向滑动和运动的特点。     

Phytoplankton, nutrients and hydrography in the frontal zone between the Southwest Indian Subtropical gyre and the Southern Ocean

A survey was made of the Southwest Indian Ocean frontal region between 30 and 50°E containing the Agulhas Return, Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts. From CTD, SeaSoar and extracted samples the distribution of nitrate, silicate and chlorophyll a is shown to be strongly linked to the front and water mass structure, varying zonally and meridionally. Surface chlorophyll a concentrations were low to the north and south leaving a band of elevated chlorophyll between the Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts. The low concentration of chlorophyll a to the north, in Subtropical Water, was clearly due to nitrate limitation. Between the Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts, where the chlorophyll a concentrations were highest, the surface layer showed silicate depletion limiting diatom growth. South of the Subantarctic Front there were deep extending, low concentrations of chlorophyll a, but despite plentiful supplies of macro-nutrients and a well-stratified surface layer, high concentrations of chlorophyll a were absent. Changes from west to east were associated with the meandering of the Southern Ocean Fronts, especially the Subtropical Front, and their strength and proximity to each other. Concentrations of chlorophyll a peaked where the Agulhas Return, Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts were in close proximity. Combined frontal structures appear to have particularly pronounced vertical stability and are associated with enhanced upwelling of nutrients and leakage of nutrients across the front. Light levels are high within the shallow stable layer. Such conditions are clearly favourable for biological growth and support the development of larger-celled phytoplankton communities.     

Identification of trends in rainfall,rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.     

An integrated linear/non-linear flow model for the conduit-fissure-pore media in the karst triple void aquifer system

Most karstic aquifer media may be characterized as the triple-void media with highly-varied hydraulic properties, including matrix pore, fissure and conduit, in which liner flow may co-exist with non-linear flow. In this paper, an attempt is made to couple linear flow with non-linear flow in a single unified flow governing equations by introducing the concept of equivalent hydraulic conductivity (EHC) and deriving a general Darcys law for various flow. The expression of EHC in the karst conduit and fissure are also derived. The procedures of numerical implementation are demonstrated via an ideal model and a case study of karst aquifer system in the Beishan Ore Formation area, Guangxi Autonomous Region, China.     

Theory of Basin Scale Dynamics of a Stratified Rotating Fluid

The dynamics of a stratified fluid contained in a rotating rectangular box is described in terms of the evolution of the lowest moments of its density and momentum fields. The first moment of the density field also gives the position of the fluids centre-of-mass. The resulting low-order model allows for fast assessment both of adopted parameterisations, as well as of particular values of parameters. In the ideal fluid limit (neglect of viscous and diffusive effects), in the absence of wind, the equations have a Hamiltonian structure that is integrable (non-integrable) in the absence (presence) of differential heating. In a non-rotating convective regime, dynamically rich behaviour and strong dependence on the single (lumped) parameter are established. For small values of this parameter, in a self-similar regime, further reduction to an explicit map is discussed in an Appendix. Introducing rotation in a nearly geostrophic regime leads through a Hopf bifurcation to a limit cycle, and under the influence of wind and salt to multiple equilibria and chaos, respectively.     

Photometric observations and orbital period variations of HS 0705 + 6700 and NY Vir

We present photometric observations of two post-common-envelope stars, NY Vir (=PG 1336-018) and HS 0705 + 6700. The V band CCD observation of NY Vir was performed by a 40 cm telescope at Ege University Observatory and the R band observations of HS 0705 + 6700 were performed by 100 cm telescope at TÜB?TAK National Observatory. The new light curves were analyzed by the WD code and the physical parameters of stars were determined. We obtained new mid-eclipse timings for HS 0705 + 6700 and combined them with those previously published data. The analysis of the O-C residuals yields a period of about 8.06 ± 0.28 yr and an amplitude of 98.5 s for the system HS 0705 + 6700, which is attributed to the third star physically bounded to the evolved eclipsing pair. A mass function of 1.2 × 10⁻⁴ M_⊙ for the third star is obtained. The existence of a third star is also confirmed by the light curve analysis, indicating light contribution of about 0.043 at phase 0.25 in R-bandpass of the eclipsing pair. Using mass-luminosity relationship of the low mass stars we estimate a mass of 0.12 M_⊙ with an orbital inclination of about 20°. The O-C residuals obtained for the system NY Vir were represented by a downward parabola which indicates orbital period decrease in the system. Using the coefficient of quadratic term we calculate a rate of orbital period decrease of about dP/dt = −4.09 × 10⁻⁸days yr⁻¹. The period decrease we have measured in NY Vir may be explained by angular momentum loss from the binary system.     

A LIMITED-LENGTH-SCALE k-ε MODEL FOR THE NEUTRAL AND STABLY-STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

Analytical and numerical models of the neutral and stably-stratifiedatmospheric boundary layer are reviewed. Theoretical arguments andcomputational models suggest that a quasi-steady state is attainable in aboundary layer cooled from below and it is shown how this may be incorporatedwithin a time-steady, one-dimensional model. A new length-scale-limitedk- model is proposed for flows where a global maximum mixing length isimposed by the finite boundary-layer depth or, in stably-stratifiedconditions, by the Obukhov length, whilst still reducing to a form consistentwith the logarithmic law in the surface layer. Simulations compare favourablywith data from the Leipzig experiment and from Cardington airfield inEngland.     

A wavelet method for detecting S‐waves in seismic data

Seismic signals consist of several typically short energy bursts, called phases, exhibiting several patterns in terms of dominant frequency, amplitude and polarisation. We present a fast algorithm to detect the so‐called S‐phase in a three‐component seismic signal. This new approach combines traditional S‐phase detection methods and the discrete wavelet transform. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A technique for modeling the Earth’s gravity field on the basis of satellite accelerations

A technique is proposed for Earths gravity field modeling on the basis of satellite accelerations that are derived from precise orbit data. The functional model rests on Newtons second law. The computational procedure is based on the pre-conditioned conjugate-gradient (PCCG) method. The data are treated as weighted average accelerations rather than as point-wise ones. As a result, a simple three-point numerical differentiation scheme can be used to derive them. Noise in the orbit-derived accelerations is strongly dependent on frequency. Therefore, the key element of the proposed technique is frequency-dependent data weighting. Fast convergence of the PCCG procedure is ensured by a block-diagonal pre-conditioner (approximation of the normal matrix), which is derived under the so-called Colombo assumptions. Both uninterrupted data sets and data with gaps can be handled. The developed technique is compared with other approaches: (1) the energy balance approach (based on the energy conservation law) and (2) the traditional approach (based on the integration of variational equations). Theoretical considerations, supported by a numerical study, show that the proposed technique is more accurate than the energy balance approach and leads to approximately the same results as the traditional one. The former finding is explained by the fact that the energy balance approach is only sensitive to the along-track force component. Information about the cross-track and the radial component of the gravitational potential gradient is lost because the corresponding force components do no work and do not contribute to the energy balance. Furthermore, it is shown that the proposed technique is much (possibly, orders of magnitude) faster than the traditional one because it does not require the computation of the normal matrix. Hints are given on how the proposed technique can be adapted to the explicit assembling of the normal matrix if the latter is needed for the computation of the model covariance matrix.Acknowledgments. Professor R. Klees is thanked for support of the project and for numerous fruitful discussions. The authors are also thankful to Dr. J. Kusche for useful remarks and to Dr. E. Schrama, his solid background in satellite geodesy proved to be very helpful. A large number of valuable comments were made by Dr. S.-C. Han, Dr. P. Schwintzer, and an anonymous reviewer; their contribution is greatly acknowledged. The satellite orbits used in the numerical study were kindly provided by Dr. P. Visser (Aerospace Department, Delft University of Technology). Access to the SGI Origin 3800 computer was provided by Stichting Nationale Computerfaciliteiten (NCF), grant SG-027.