青藏高原西部阿汝冰芯记录的近100 a气温变化研究

以2017年9月钻取自青藏高原西部阿汝冰崩区长度55.29 m的阿汝冰芯为研究对象,通过冰芯δ18O记录与Nye模型重建了冰芯上部17.87 m的时间序列是1917—2016年.结合冰芯邻近的改则、狮泉河气象站1973—2016年夏季平均气温数据,通过相关性分析及线性回归法、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验分析,...     

基于SAPSO-ELM的瓦斯涌出量分源预测及应用

为了提高瓦斯涌出量预测精度,针对瓦斯涌出量影响因素的多重相关性、复杂性等问题,结合主成分分析法和分源预测理论,对开采层、邻近层、采空区的瓦斯涌出量数据分别进行主成分分析降维,得到预测指标。针对极限学习机(ELM)存在的输入权值矩阵与隐含层阈值随机生成的问题,利用模拟退火粒子群算法(SAPSO)对极限学习机的参数寻优,将新疆某煤矿回采工作面瓦斯涌出量及影响因素作为SAPSO-ELM模型的输入进行训练,再利用训练好的SAPSO-ELM模型对陕西某煤矿回采工作面的瓦斯涌出量进行验证预测,并对比原始ELM模型的预测结果。结果表明,SAPSO-ELM模型的平均相对误差为3.45%,ELM模型的平均相对误差为8.81%,与ELM模型相比,SAPSO-ELM模型预测精度及效率均优于原始ELM模型。分源预测理论和主成分分析法的结合有效解决了多因素间的多重相关性并降低了预测模型的复杂度,SAPSO-ELM预测模型实现了瓦斯涌出量的快速精准预测,对预防瓦斯事故发生和保障煤矿安全高效开采具有较好的指导作用。      

撤县(市)设区对城市空间扩展的影响机理——以杭州市为例

城镇化的持续推进对城市空间扩展产生了新的需求,撤县（市）设区是中国城市市辖区实现扩容提质的主要手段之一。以杭州为例,定量测度撤县（市）设区后杭州城区空间扩展的时空特征及其各方面的影响,并探讨了这一区划调整对城市空间扩展影响的作用机理。研究发现：通过撤县（市）设区,杭州城区的建设用地东扩趋势明显,萧山和余杭两区的建设用地新增面积和扩展速度均高于平均水平,且两地建设用地空间存在多中心集聚特征,成为新一轮的杭州建设用地扩展高密度区,城市功能不断凸显。总体来看,撤县（市）设区对城市空间的影响是间接的,具有一定的滞后性,通过引导城市空间扩展的主要方向,实现中心城市人口和产业向新设市辖区的转移和集聚,提供城市空间扩展的载体。撤县（市）设区后需要通过后续的城市规划修编、土地性质和权限调整、生产要素集聚与空间重组等路径,对城市空间扩张与空间演变产生直接影响。     

警用视频监控的犯罪防控效果及空间差异 ——以苏州市姑苏区为例

采用双重差分法,对苏州市姑苏区2014~2016年的警情数据进行分析,评估警用治安视频监控的犯罪防控效果。结果表明,视频监控对犯罪具有明显的抑制性作用。在案件类型上,视频监控对盗窃类案件的防控效果较好,但对盗窃电动自行车、盗窃电动车电瓶的防控效果较小。在时间维度上,与节假日相比,对工作日犯罪的抑制效果更好;与晚上相比,对白天犯罪的抑制效果更好。针对通过局部空间自相关分析所获取的重点区域,与警务人员访谈和实地调研后发现,视频监控的犯罪防控效果与周边地理环境、人流密集程度、警务情况等密切相关。     

Mapping of moraine dammed glacial lakes and assessment of their areal changes in the central and eastern Himalayas using satellite data

The relatively rapid recession of glaciers in the Himalayas and formation of moraine dammed glacial lakes(MDGLs) in the recent past have increased the risk of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF) in the countries of Nepal and Bhutan and in the mountainous territory of Sikkim in India. As a product of climate change and global warming, such a risk has not only raised the level of threats to the habitation and infrastructure of the region, but has also contributed to the worsening of the balance of the unique ecosystem that exists in this domain that sustains several of the highest mountain peaks of the world. This study attempts to present an up to date mapping of the MDGLs in the central and eastern Himalayan regions using remote sensing data, with an objective to analyse their surface area variations with time from 1990 through 2015, disaggregated over six episodes. The study also includes the evaluation for susceptibility of MDGLs to GLOF with the least criteria decision analysis(LCDA). Forty two major MDGLs, each having a lake surface area greater than 0.2 km2, that were identified in the Himalayan ranges of Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, have been categorized according to their surface area expansion rates in space and time. The lakes have been identified as located within the elevation range of 3800 m and6800 m above mean sea level(a msl). With a total surface area of 37.9 km2, these MDGLs as a whole were observed to have expanded by an astonishing 43.6% in area over the 25 year period of this study. A factor is introduced to numerically sort the lakes in terms of their relative yearly expansion rates, based on their interpretation of their surface area extents from satellite imageries. Verification of predicted GLOF events in the past using this factor with the limited field data as reported in literature indicates that the present analysis may be considered a sufficiently reliable and rapid technique for assessing the potential bursting susceptibility of the MDGLs. The analysis also indicates that, as of now, there are eight MDGLs in the region which appear to be in highly vulnerable states and have high chances in causing potential GLOF events anytime in the recent future.     

应用最小二乘法建立钾长石释光测年标准生长曲线

标准生长曲线（Standardised Growth Curve,SGC）法的提出为高效快速地测定释光样品的等效剂量（D_e）值提供了可能。不同实验室的放射源剂量率、操作流程、仪器误差等的不同会导致SGC参数的不同。运用最小二乘法标准化实验剂量校正后的信号L_ri/T_ri*D_e得到一条本实验室的标准生长曲线,用来快速得到等效剂量值。通过R软件实现了最小二乘法标准化过程,建立了50、100、150、200、250℃激发温度下的钾长石的标准生长曲线,分析发现250℃下的SGC收敛性最好,由于此温度下的信号衰退率可忽略不计,因此,我们用250℃激发温度下的SGC方程来估计样品的等效剂量。比较250℃ SGC D_e和250℃ MET-pIRIR D_e的一致性,发现在0~500 Gy范围内用SGC法估计的D_e和MET-pIRIR法估计的D_e非常接近,表明了此范围内SGC法的可靠性,而在>600 Gy范围内出现较大差别。一方面,此范围内用于拟合SGC的数据点较少导致高剂量区域内拟合的方程参数不够准确;另一方面,600 Gy与SGC对应的饱和剂量水平值844.5 Gy已经接近,所以在>600 Gy区域测出的D_e很可能出现较大偏差。因此需在今后工作中逐步积累更多样品,完善SGC参数,使其也能胜任较老年龄样品。     

佤族的别样生活

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《应用海洋学学报》征稿简则

《应用海洋学学报》是国家海洋局第三海洋研究所、中国海洋学会、福建省海洋学会主办,中国生态学学会海洋生态专业委员会协办,国家海洋局主管,国内外公开发行的全国性综合性海洋科学学报(季刊,国内统一刊号:CN35-1319/P,国际标准刊号:ISSN2095-4972)。《应用海洋学学报》是中文核心期刊、中国科技核心期刊、中国科学引文数据库(CSCD)收录期刊、中国学术期刊(光盘版)收录期刊和中国核心期刊(遴选)数据库收录期刊,也是中国、美国、英国、日本以及联合国等十几个科技期刊数据库的收录期刊。     

Numerical simulation and preliminary analysis of typhoon waves during three typhoons in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

In this study,typhoon waves generated during three typhoons(Damrey(1210),Fung-wong(1416),and Chan-hom(1509))in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea were simulated in a simulating waves nearshore(SWAN)model,and the wind forcing was constructed by combining reanalyzed wind data with a Holland typhoon wind model.Various parameters,such as the Holland fitting parameter(B)and the maximum wind radius?,were investigated in sensitivity experiments in the Holland model that affect the wind field construction.Six different formulations were considered and the parameters determined by comparing the simulated wind results with in-situ wind measurements.The key factors affecting wave growth and dissipation processes from deep to shallow waters were studied,including wind input,whitecapping,and bottom friction.Comparison with in-situ wave measurements suggested that the KOMEN scheme(wind input exponential growth and whitecapping energy dissipation)and the JONSWAP scheme(dissipation of bottom friction)resulted in good reproduction of the significant wave height of typhoon waves.A preliminary analysis of the wave characteristics in terms of wind-sea and swell wave revealed that swell waves dominated with the distance of R to the eye of the typhoon,while wind-sea prevailed in the outer region up to six to eight times the R values despite a clear misalignment between wind and waves.The results support the hypothesis that nonlinear wave-wave interactions may play a key role in the formation of wave characteristics.     

Contribution of trimethylamine N-oxide on the growth and pressure tolerance of deep-sea bacteria

Trimethylamine N-oxide(TMAO) is widely dispersed in marine environments and plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen. Diverse marine bacteria utilize TMAO as carbon and nitrogen sources or as electron acceptor in anaerobic respiration. Alteration of respiratory component according to the pressure is a common trait of deep-sea bacteria. Deep-sea bacteria from dif ferent genera harbor high hydrostatic pressure(HHP) inducible TMAO reductases that are assumed to be constitutively expressed in the deep-sea piezosphere and facilitating quick reaction to TMAO released from ?sh which is a potential nutrient for bacterial growth. However, whether deep-sea bacteria universally employ this strategy remains unknown. In this study, 237 bacterial strains affliated to 23 genera of Proteobacteria,Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes and Actinobacteria were isolated from seawater, sediment or amphipods collected at dif ferent depths. The pressure tolerance and the utilization of TMAO were examined in 74 strains. The results demonstrated no apparent correlation between the depth where the bacteria inhabit and their pressure tolerance, regarding to our samples. Several deep-sea strains from the genera of Alteromonas, Halomonas,Marinobacter, Photobacterium, and Vibrio showed capacity of TMAO utilization, but none of the isolated Acinebacter, Bacillus, Brevundimonas, Muricauda, Novosphingobium, Rheinheimera, Sphingobium and Stenotrophomonas did, indicating the utilization of TMAO is a species-speci?c feature. Furthermore, we noticed that the ability of TMAO utilization varied among strains of the same species. TMAO has greater impact on the growth of deep-sea isolates of Vibrio neocaledonicus than shallow-water isolates. Taken together, the results describe for the ?rst time the TMAO utilization in deep-sea bacterial strains, and expand our understanding of the physiological characteristic of marine bacteria.