A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.     

考虑非达西效应的边水气藏水平井见水时间预测模型

边水气藏水平井见水后产量下降,准确预测见水时间有利于选择合理的开发及配产方式、提高边水气藏采收率.考虑水侵速度、储层倾角及气相非达西效应等因素,建立边水气藏水平井见水时间预测模型;计算P边水气藏W井的见水时间,与未考虑水侵速度等因素的见水时间对比,并对影响因素进行敏感性分析.结果表明:水侵过程中,水质点向井底移动的速度...     

Preliminary study on aftershock decay rate of the 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake

We obtained a catalog of early aftershocks of the 2013 Lushan earthquake by examining waveform from a nearby station MDS which is 30.2 km far away from the epicenter, and then we analyzed the relation between aftershock rate and time. We used time-window ratio method to identify aftershocks from continuous waveform data and compare the result with the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center （CENC）. As expected, a significant amount of earthquakes is missing in CENC catalog in the 24 h after the main shock. Moreover, we observed a steady seismicity rate of aftershocks nearly in the first 10,000 s before an obvious power-law decay of aftershock activity. We consider this distinct early stage which does not fit the Omori law with a constant p （p - 1） value as early aftershock deficiency （EAD）, as proposed by previous studies. Our study suggests that the main shock rupture process is different from aftershocks＇ processes, and EAD can vary in different cases as compared to earthquakes of strike-slip mechanism in California.     

包括前震和余震的不含时间的地震危险性概率分析

在不含时间的地震危险性概率分析中,每个震源都被视为在时间和空间上无关。因此,在时间和空间上都依赖主震的前震和余震都不被列入地震目录。然而,事实表明,这些地震能够产生破坏性地震动,应该被认为是构成地震危险性的一部分。本研究将主震及其相关地震作为时间不相关的群体,每个群体在时间和空间上都与其他任何群体无关,且都具有主震的复发时间。通过将震群中的地震视为事件的并,相关事件都会对地震动和危险性有贡献。根据美国地质调查局的高危险性场地判别方法,纳入相关事件使超过工程意义概率水平的地震动增加了约10％,但如果能够可靠地计算余震发生量的变化,这个增加量可能会高达20％。     

基于数值解与解析解耦合的SSI体系地震反应分析方法

基于子结构分析方法,提出了土-结构相互作用体系中数值解和解析解耦合的地震反应分析方法。此方法中,数值解是用有限元方法来模拟上部结构的非线性动力行为;而弹性结构-刚性基础-半无限大弹性地基中频域内的解析解,是通过离散时间递归滤波方法得到时域内的解来等效,且在整个体系中,利用土、结构两个子结构边界上的力和位移协调求解。本文提出的方法用有限元程序Opensees来实现,并用于一个线弹性单层框架结构的动力分析中。这种耦合的分析方法得到的结果,与土-结构相互作用单自由度体系的解析解进行了比较,验证此方法的精度、稳定性和工程实用性。     

AR模型在大地电磁测深资料处理中的应用

大地电磁测深资料数据采集过程中,由于温度、湿度等对仪器的影响或GPS搜星不正常,采集到的数据有时会出现时间序列跳帧或缺失现象.针对这一问题,本文将基于无激励AR(p)模型预测数据的原理引入大地电磁测深数据处理中.根据已知序列确定AR(p)模型阶数以及模型参数,建立正确的预测模型对缺失数据进行预测,并对比经过预测后的数据与实际样本数据的频谱,表明AR(p)预测模型可以解决原始资料的不连续性问题,提高了大地电磁测深野外资料的利用率.     

Statistical moment-based structural damage detection method in time domain

A novel structural damage detection method with a new damage index,i.e.,the statistical moment-based damage detection(SMBDD) method in the frequency domain,has been recently proposed.The aim of this study is to extend the SMBDD method in the frequency domain to the time domain for building structures subjected to non-Gaussian and non-stationary excitations.The applicability and effectiveness of the SMBDD method in the time domainis verified both numerically and experimentally.Shear buildings with various damage scenarios are first numerically investigated in the time domain taking into account the effect of measurement noise.The applicability of the proposed method in the time domain to building structures subjected to non-Gaussian and non-stationary excitations is then experimentally investigated through a series of shaking table tests,in which two three-story shear building models with four damage scenarios aretested.The identified damage locations and severities are then compared with the preset values.The comparative results are found to be satisfactory,and the SMBDD method is shown to be feasible and effective for building structures subjected to non-Gaussian and non-stationary excitations.     

线源二维时间域瞬变电磁二次场数值模拟(英文)

本文在Oristaglio等(1984)和Adhidjaja等(1985)工作基础上,给出线源二维时间域瞬变电磁二次场的DuFort-Frankel有限差分数值解,有效避免了在总场求解法中场源附近的奇异问题,并对地-空边界电导率的处理、归一化感应电动势偏导数的计算、推进时间步的确定,提出了改进方法;吸取前人成就中二次场地-空边界向上延拓和零值边界处理技术,从而简化了计算方法;通过对均匀大地、水平层状大地模型的计算,二次场求解法与解析法的最大相对误差小于0.01%,计算速度比总场求解法提高了约3倍;模拟计算不同时刻瞬变电磁场在地下的分布形态,描绘出感应涡流向下向外的传播特征,以及与地下异常体相互作用的物理过程。     

库车坳陷复杂高陡构造地震成像研究

复杂构造地震成像主要取决于叠前地震数据品质、偏移速度可靠性和偏移算子成像精度. 库车坳陷异常复杂的近地表条件导致极低信噪比的地震采集数据. 该区逆冲推覆高陡构造刺穿盐体大面积分布, 盐层厚度变化大、顶底面形态复杂, 盐下断裂带破碎、小断块发育, 形成异常复杂的地震成像问题. 本文重点研究三个关键环节:(1)精细的叠前地震预处理研究: 根据该区地震地质复杂性和地震资料特征, 采用一些新的方法技术和技术组合从振幅与时移的大、中、小尺度变化三个层次来解决资料信噪比问题, 重建深部反射信号; (2)三级偏移速度分析研究:利用库车坳陷盐刺穿逆冲推覆构造建模理论及变速成图配套技术解决叠前时间偏移速度场时深转换问题,利用井约束低频速度地震迭代反演技术解决连井层速度场与偏移速度场的融合问题,实现从DMO速度分析、叠前时间偏移速度分析到叠前深度偏移速度分析的有机衔接,建立拓扑结构相对保持的叠前深度偏移速度模型;(3)基于退化Fourier偏移算子的半解析波动方程叠前时间和深度偏移研究, 极大地改善了地震偏移过程中高波数波的成像问题. 通过对库车坳陷大北、博孜、却勒、西秋4和西秋10等复杂高陡构造的叠前时间和深度偏移地震成像处理,取得了较好的应用效果.