2003年夏季短期气候预测总结初步分析

对内蒙古2003年夏季(6～8月)降水的时空分布特征及气候预测作总结分析，并对其影响今夏降水的主要成因以及前兆信号作初步分析。利用夏季降水距平百分率和特征量距平的对比分析找出一定的规律，使这些结果对于今后短期气候预测具有重要意义。     

上海地区湿地水生维管束植物及其区系特征

在参照相关资料基础上，结合实地调查，得出上海地区湿地水生维管束植物共49科107属179种。从植物生态型和生活型等方面来划分，上海地区水生维管束植物可主要分为内陆河湖水生植物、河口海岸滩涂植物和湿生植物3种类型。从区系组成来看，包含5种以上的12个较大科构成了上海地区水生维管束植物的主体，其中禾本科和莎草科种类最多；区内各属种数都在10种以下，包含3种以上的属有19属，共79种，分别占总属数的17．8％和总种数的44．2％。从区系分布区类型来看，水生蕨类植物种主要有4种分布区类型，世界分布为主要类型；而水生种子植物属有13种分布区类型，其中6个热带分布类型共有39属，占总属数的61．9％，6个温带分布类型共有24属，占总属数的38．1％，表明上海地区水生种子植物区系具有偏热带性质。同时，讨论了水生维管束植物在湿地生态系统以及湿地生态恢复中的重要作用。     

加热温度对含蜡原油胶凝过程微观机理的影响

加热温度是含蜡原油胶凝程度的主要影响因素。基于油品实验基本物性数据,选取与实验原油实际分子结构较接近的蜡晶、胶质和沥青质分子模型构建含蜡原油体系,应用Materials Studio软件进行分子动力学模拟,研究加热温度对含蜡原油胶凝过程微观机理的影响。结果表明：含蜡原油凝点温度可由密度—温度曲线和自扩散系数—温度曲线综合判断;加热温度降低时,含蜡原油体系分子链由直链转变为卷曲状态且在凝点时发生明显变化;蜡晶同种分子间的聚集是含蜡原油胶凝的主要影响因素。蜡晶分子间的径向分布函数(RDF)存在峰值且集中,使凝点恶化的加热温度RDF峰值明显升高。该结果从分子间作用机理上为含蜡原油胶凝体系流变特性的影响规律研究提供依据。     

近30年夏季亚欧大陆中高纬度阻塞高压的统计特征

文中利用1970～2001年NCEP再分析500 hPa逐日高度场资料,根据阻塞高压的天气学定义,采用客观统计方法检索出近32 a亚欧中高纬度392个阻塞高压个例,对其进行了气候学分析.结果表明,亚欧中高纬地区夏季阻塞高压活动频繁,10 d以下的过程占绝对多数,地理分布主要集中在45～70°N之间,纬向上可划分5个高发区,其中乌拉尔山和贝加尔湖东部阻高活动频次最高,同时,每个区域中又存在着相应的阻高活跃区.亚欧中高纬地区夏季阻高活动具有明显的季节内变化特征.6月份,阻塞活动多发生在乌拉尔山地区和鄂霍次克海地区,以双阻为主要形势;7月份,欧洲区和贝加尔湖地区的阻塞活动有所增多,尤其贝加尔湖东部地区增多明显,而乌拉尔山地区的阻塞形势明显减少,鄂霍次克海地区的阻塞活动位置向北移动,多发生在60°N以北,双阻形势逐渐减弱,贝加尔湖地区的中阻形势有所增强.8月份,阻塞形势主要存在于贝加尔湖东西两区,中阻形势占据主导地位.亚欧中高纬地区夏季阻塞高压活动年际变化特征也很突出,且这种年际振荡有明显的地理差异.另外,研究表明亚洲北部的阻高活动多以稳定型为主,移动型阻高个例仅占6.6%.移动型阻高以起源于乌拉尔山地区最多,移距最长,生命期最长.偶极子类阻高多集中在贝加尔湖东部与乌拉尔山地区,约占该地区总阻高频次的62.0%和49.7%,平均生命期分别达到7 d/次和9 d/次以上.     

浅水非线性随机海浪的波高分布

利用水波动力学中的浅水Stokes波理论建立了随机波统计模式,并由此导出了浅水非线性海浪的波高概率分布函数．所导出的以浅水波陡和浅水因子作为参数的波高概率分布在物理上更为合理．这两个参数既可作为控制波高分布函数变化的参量,又能通过它们体现波高分布偏离瑞利分布的程度．新的波高分布克服了瑞利分布大波预报过高,而众值预报过低的不足之处;同时也使得小概率对应的波高值比瑞利分布预报的为低．浅水波陡的作用与深水情况类似,而浅水因子的作用则体现在分布众值对应的波高随着浅水因子的变小而逐渐降低以及浅水波浪分布更为集中等方面．资料验证表明,本文结果更具合理性．     

Global sea level change and thermal contribution

The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.     

Thickness distribution and extent of sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and surrounding waters observed in 2012/2013 austral summer

Three ship-based observational campaigns were conducted to survey sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and the surrounding waters(64.40°S–69.40°S, 76.11°E–81.29°E) from 28 November 2012 to 3 February 2013. In this paper, we present the sea ice extent and its variation, and the ice and snow thickness distributions and their variations with time in the observed zone. In the pack ice zone, the southern edge of the pack ice changed little, whereas the northern edge retreated significantly during the two earlier observation periods. Compared with the pack ice, the fast ice exhibited a significantly slower variation in extent with its northernmost edge retreating southwards by 6.7 km at a rate of 0.37 km?d-1. Generally, ice showed an increment in thickness with increasing latitude from the end of November to the middle of December. Ice and snow thickness followed an approximate normal distribution during the two earlier observations(79.7±28.9 cm, 79.1±19.1 cm for ice thickness, and 11.6±6.1 cm, 9.6±3.4 cm for snow thickness, respectively), and the distribution tended to be more concentrated in mid-December than in late November. The expected value of ice thickness decreased by 0.6 cm, whereas that of snow thickness decreased by 2 cm from 28 November to 18 December 2012. Ice thickness distribution showed no obvious regularity between 31 January and 3 February, 2013.