Parabolic Wave Propagation Modelling in Orthogonal Coordinate Systems

This paper presents a numerical model study of the propagation of water waves using the parabolic approximation of the mild-slope equation in the orthogonal coordinate system. Two types of coordinate systems are studied: (a) a general form of orthogonal coordinate system and (b) the conformal system, a special form of orthogonal coordinate system. Two typical examples, namely, expanded breakwaters and a circular channel, are studied to validate the model. First, the examples are studied by use of the general orthogonal coordinates. Then the same examples are computed by use of the confonnal system. The computational results show that the confonnal coordinate system generally gives better predictions than the general orthogonal system. A numerical technique for generating the conformal grid is combined with the numerical model to improve the practicability of the model. The comparison between the result from the numerical grid system and that from the analytical grid system shows that reliable computational results can be obtained by use of the numerical confonnal grid system.     

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of obfique wave action on vertical walls

A three-dimensional numerical model based on the potential theory was developed to study the oblique wave action on vertical walls. A source term inside the domain was used to generate incident waves and outgoing waves were dissipated by sponge layers and transmitted by radiation boundaries. The finite difference method was used to solve the governing equations and boundary conditions in the regular transformed domain in σ-coordinate. Satisfactory agreements between the numerical predictions and experimental results of wave force were obtained. It is concluded that the maximum wave force acting on the vertical walls is induced by the obliquely incident waves rather than the normally incident waves.     

春晒期关键性降水过程预报专家系统

春晒期关键性降水天气过程是指≥10mm降水,该降水过程是盐业生产的重要灾害性天气之一,对于海盐生产有着极其重要的影响。因此,关键性降水天气过程预报准确率的高低、时效的长短,对完成全年生产任务起着举足轻重的作用,在此期间≥10mm降水过程预报至关重要。该专家系统研制主要目标是预报未来24小时大连复州湾盐场出现≥10mm降水过程,同时也注视了48小时和72小时的关键性降水天气过程的预报问题。我们普查1974～1988年3月到6月份高空三层(850、700、500hPa)天气图,≥10mm降水过程,确定出60个例子进行聚类,共分成4种类型。在广泛收集、汇总专家经验和科研成果、在降水成因、机制物理量场诊断分析基础上,结合数值预报产品的应用,建立了专家系统历史个例库、知识库、预报规则库,研究出了客观、定量易于使用的降水预报专家系统。     

具有匹配不确定的奇异摄动系统的鲁棒控制

对于同时具有结构匹配不确定和系统不确定量的奇异摄动系统，利用Lyapunov稳定性理论进行了鲁棒性研究。给出了1个理想奇异摄动系统的稳定鲁棒控制也是不确定奇异摄动系统稳定控制的稳定条件和鲁棒界，讨论了鲁棒界及其随参数变化的变化范围。本文是王宪杰，高存臣已有结果的推广。     

浮体间距对多浮体系统水动力系数的影响

根据三维线性势流理论，采用格林函数法，对多浮体系统的水动力系数进行了数值分析。数值算例中给出了在固定波频下水动力系数与浮体间相对位置关系曲线。水动力系数的变化幅度随着浮体间距离增大而变小。随着浮体间距的变化，水动力系数极值的出现具有明显的规律，相邻的极大值(或极小值)的间距为半个波长或一个波长。     

上海海平而变化规律及其长期预测方法的初探

根据１９１２￣１９９３年吴淞验潮站年平均潮位资料，采用多变量逐步回归和最大熵谱分析等方法分析以吴淞为代表的上海绝对海平面长期趋势的周期变化规律，并依此规律建立用作绝对海平面长期预报的叠加模型，由此预测２０１０年和２０３０的上海色对海平面相对于１９９０年的上升值为５ｃｍ，１１ｃｍ，结合已分布的未来上海地区地面和速率预测值，给出上述时段上海相对平面上升预测值分别为１７ｃｍ，３０ｃｍ。     

沉降监测多项式回归分析与神经网络预测

使用多项式和切比雪夫(Tchebyshev)多项式分别对沉降监测数据进行回归分析以预测未来沉降值,其中切比雪夫多项式的外推效果较好;应用前向BP神经网络对两种不同的单因子输入模式进行非线性函数逼近,并进行了不同采样步长的比较,实例表明将时间点作为网络的输入对沉降进行预测效果较好。     

《我国渤海和十个海湾水质预测及物理自净能力研究报告》通过鉴定

我院海洋环保中心的科技人员与有关教师合作完成的《我国渤海和十个海湾水质预测及物理门净能力研究报告》上年十月在北京通过鉴定。