气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。     

基于雷达监测河川径流的测量及算法

祁连山大野口流域由于水流急、河面宽,修筑量水堰有一定的难度,准确监测河川径流成了流域水量平衡和涵养水源功能机理研究的障碍。通过大野口流域雷达测流处水面比降、河川横断面面积、水力半径、流速仪实测流量、糙率和谢才系数等一系列测量和计算,可得出雷达监测水位与相应的河川径流量的函数关系式,并绘制出水位流量图。结果表明:雷达测流处水面平均比降为0.028;河川最大洪水断面宽13.4 m,高1.32 m;河川横断面糙率的平均值为0.059;雷达监测水位与相应的河川径流量的函数关系式为Q=0.0018H2-0.0206H(R2=0.9994),该关系式可有效解决修筑量水堰较难而利用雷达监测河川径流的难题。通过研究,可为中等流域尺度上进一步揭示水源涵养功能机理及其流域产流机制提供参考和科学依据,是实现未来水资源可持续开发利用的基础工作,其对认知特定区域水文过程的演变规律,保障内陆河流域水资源合理开发,维持河西地区农业可持续发展具有重要意义。     

Research advances in eco-hydrological process and function

Present studies on the coupling relationship and hydrology mechanism between basin ecosystem and hydrological process has become an international research frontier in hydrology. This paper investigates this coupling relationship, and also summarizes research and presents a method of combining isotopic technology with hydro-chemical methods, for the study of eco-hydrological process and function in different landscape zones. We then examine research trends for future direction and development of this field.     

基于MODIS NDVI的西辽河流域主要粮食作物时空分布格局（英文）

研究以西辽河流域为案例区,以MODIS遥感数据为基础,选取2000、2005和2010年时间点,利用NDVI时间序列信息,结合西辽河流域不同作物物候历,运用决策树提取模型,获取西辽河流域春玉米、春小麦和大豆等主要作物的空间分布信息,定量揭示了10年间西辽河流域主要粮食作物的时空分布特征。研究表明:(1)2010年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积为11 965.08 km2,其中春玉米播种面积约占流域主要粮食作物的92.28%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区;春小麦播种面积占比3.14%,以西辽河流域中游面积最大;大豆播种面积占比4.58%,以西辽河上游流域面积最大。(2)2000-2005年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积大幅增加,涨幅达29.77%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区。其中,春玉米播种面积增长38.99%,春小麦播种面积减少39.04%,大豆播种面积增长21.27%。(3)2005-2010年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积增长缓慢,涨幅为5.18%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区。春玉米播种面积呈现增加趋势,春小麦呈现减少趋势,大豆呈减少趋势。     

Spatiotemporal variations of maximum seasonal freeze depth in 1950s–2007 over the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Investigation on spatiotemporal variations of maximum seasonal freeze depth （MSFD） over the Heihe River Basin is of great importance for systematic understanding of regional climate and environmental change, ecological-hydrological processes, water resources assessment, construction and resource development. Based on soil and air temperatures at the meteorological stations of the China Meteorological Administration （CMA） over the Heihe River Basin, MSFDs time series are structured into a composite time series over the 1960-2007 period. Evaluating the averaged MSFD time series for 1960 2007 reveals a statistically significant trend of 4.0 cm/decade or a net change of-19.2 cm for the 48-year period over the basin. The MSFD had significantly negative correlation with mean annual air temperature （MAAT）, winter air temperature, mean annual ground surface temperature （MAGST）, degree days of thawing for the air （DDTa） as well as for the surface （DDTs）, and degree days of freezing for the surface （DDFs）. While there was significantly positive correlation between DDF,. and MSFD time series, MSFD was deeper and changed greatly in the Heihe River source area. It was shallower in the east-central basin and gradually deepened in other sections of the basin. The MSFD distribution pattern in 2003-2005 is consistent with that of averaged degree days of freezing for air （DDFa） in 1960-2007. However, the maximum of MSFD may not be accurate, because there is no long term observation data in the deep seasonally frozen ground regions near the lower boundary of permafrost. With increasing elevation, averaged DDFa increased at a rate of 51.6 ℃-day/100m, therefore, the MSFG and the date reaching MSFG became deeper and later, respectively.     

天津以工业名城文化名城旅游名城饮誉海内外

天津市地处华北平原的东北部,海河流域下游,东临渤海,北依燕山,西靠首都北京,有“九河下梢”、“河海要冲”之称。天津简称津,意为天子经过的渡口,别名津沽、津门等,有150多公里的海岸线。     

1953—2011年信江流域径流量变化特征及归因分析

利用信江流域梅港水文控制站1953—2011年径流量观测资料和11个气象站同期气象观测资料,采用统计方法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法、Morlet小波分析法,对信江流域径流量年内、年际变化的不均匀性、长期趋势、周期变化,及其与气候因素的相关性等进行分析。结果显示,信江流域多年平均径流量呈缓慢增大趋势,但具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,振荡周期明显,年际变化的主要周期为6—8 a,年代际变化的主要周期为准22 a,在20世纪70—90年代最明显。年流量以主汛期(4—6月)为最多,春、夏季(3—8月)径流变差系数小,水量稳定,冬季变差系数大,水量不稳定。流域径流量与气候因素中的降水、蒸发具有显著的相关性,而人类活动中的城镇化、经济、人口等因素对径流变化起到了一定的辅助作用。     

Water discharge variability of Changjiang （Yangtze） and Huanghe （Yellow） Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe （Yellow） River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis （EMD- MESA） method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.     

Combining CLUE-S and SWAT models to forecast land use change and non-point source pollution impact at a watershed scale in Liaoning Province,China

Non-point source （NPS） pollution has become a major source of water pollution. A combination of models would provide the necessary direction and approaches designed to control NPS pollution through land use planning. In this study, NPS pollution load was simulated in urban planning, historic trends and ecological protection land use scenarios based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） and Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） models applied to Hunhe-Taizi River Watershed, Liaoning Province, China. Total nitrogen （TN） and total phosphorus （TP） were chosen as NPS pollution indices. The results of models validation showed that CLUE-S and SWAT models were suitable in the study area. NPS pollution mainly came from dry farmland, paddy, rural and urban areas. The spatial distribution of TN and TP exhibited the same trend in 57 sub-catchments. The TN and TP had the highest NPS pollution load in the western and central plains, which concentrated the urban area and farm land. The NPS pollution load would increase in the urban planning and historic trends scenarios, and would be even higher in the urban planning scenario. How- ever, the NPS pollution load decreased in the ecological protection scenario. The differences observed in the three scenarios indicated that land use had a degree of impact on NPS pollution, which showed that scientific and ecologically sound construction could effec- tively reduce the NPS pollution load in a watershed. This study provides a scientific method for conducting NPS pollution research at the watershed scale, a scientific basis for non-point source pollution control, and a reference for related policy making.     

省厅要闻

正省委省政府主要领导对王世元副部长调研湟水流域高标准基本农田整治重大项目情况作批示9月4日,省委书记骆惠宁和省长郝鹏分别在《青海省国土资源厅关于湟水流域高标准基本农田整治重大项目有关情况的报告》上作出了重要批示:"此事推动有力"、"此事抓得好"。8月29日,国土资源部党组成员、副部长王世元带领相关司局负责人,对估算投资49.44亿元的湟水流域高标准基本农田整治重大项目进行了现场调研。