2010年7月重要天象预告

与去年有些类似,今年7月也将因日全食的发生而带动又一轮天文热潮。遗憾的是,本次日食在我国境内观测不到,而且全食带覆盖的绝大多数地区是海洋,尽管如此,世界各地的许多天文爱好者依然会前去观测。此外,7月虽然没有较大流量的流星雨活动,但除水星外的几颗行星观测条件都还不错,其中金星、火星和土星日落时出现在西南方天空中,且彼此角距离在逐渐减小。木星于晚22时从东方升起,后半夜的观测条件较佳。     

济南岩溶含水系统滞迟效应分析

济南岩溶含水系统的泉水位和泉流量明显滞迟于降水量。利用峰值时段差、原始序列回归等方法,并考虑了降水量、泉水位、泉流量周期性的影响,计算出济南岩溶含水系统的滞迟时间为2～6个月。以不同滞迟时间建立了泉流量预测模型,并进行了对比分析,滞迟时间6个月预测模型,预测精度较高,物理概念不明确;滞迟时间2个月预测模型,预测精度稍差,但物理概念明确,建议采用该模型进行泉流量预测。     

染色法测量坡面流流速的最佳测流区长度研究

染色法是测定坡面流流速最常用的方法,但对测流区长度的选择没有统一标准.统一测流区长度不仅能减少流速测定误差,还能提高不同试验间的可比性.本文采用室内变坡水槽试验,用染色法测量表面最大流速并计算平均流速时,选择6个常见测流区长度,以流量法计算的平均流速为参照值,选取5个统计参数(RRMSE、RE、NSE、R2、MAE)作为评价指标,将不同测流区长度下染色法与流量法所获得的平均流速进行比较,分析染色法测量坡面流流速的最佳距离.研究结果表明:当测流区长度为2m和3m时,RRMSE都较小;在2m处,RE、MAE达到最小,NSE、R2最接近1,此时染色法测定的流速与流量法计算的流速最为接近.因此,用染色剂法测量坡面流速度的最佳距离应选在2m.     

潮汐河口潮流涨落特性定量判定方法

本文研究了潮汐河口潮流涨、落特性的定量判定方法,给出了判定原则、数学公式和求解方法.并结合实际算例分析了该方法与常规判定方法之间的计算误差.得出结论该方法在实际应用中是实用的,且避免了常规判定方法所存在的问题,计算过程更加合理,计算结果更为可靠.尤其是该方法能通过计算机程序化,将大大提升潮汐河口水文资料整编工作的效率.     

怀洪新河蓄水可行性研究

怀洪新河在现状工程条件下,将正常蓄水位由设计蓄水位抬升至校核蓄水位,将新增1.1×108m3调蓄库容,如果涉及复蓄,将新增2～3亿m3的可供水量,对缓解皖东北地区干旱缺水矛盾具有重要的战略意义.本文利用蚌埠闸46年水位资料及吴家渡57年流量资料,详细分析了怀洪新河蓄水的可行性与保证率,并提出了相应的管理措施,可供相关管理和规划部门决策时参考.     

Volume estimation of small scale debris flows based on observations of topographic changes using airborne LiDAR DEMs

This paper describes a geographic information system(GIS)-based method for observing changes in topography caused by the initiation, transport, and deposition of debris flows using highresolution light detection and ranging(LiDAR) digital elevation models(DEMs) obtained before and after the debris flow events. The paper also describes a method for estimating the volume of debris flows using the differences between the LiDAR DEMs. The relative and absolute positioning accuracies of the LiDAR DEMs were evaluated using a real-time precise global navigation satellite system(GNSS) positioning method. In addition, longitudinal and cross-sectional profiles of the study area were constructed to determine the topographic changes caused by the debris flows. The volume of the debris flows was estimated based on the difference between the LiDAR DEMs. The accuracies of the relative and absolute positioning of the two LiDAR DEMs were determined to be ±10 cm and ±11 cm RMSE, respectively, which demonstrates the efficiency of the method for determining topographic changes at an scale equivalent to that of field investigations. Based on the topographic changes, the volume of the debris flows in the study area was estimated to be 3747 m3, which is comparable with the volume estimated based on the data from field investigations.     

Water discharge variability of Changjiang （Yangtze） and Huanghe （Yellow） Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe （Yellow） River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis （EMD- MESA） method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.     

基于MapReduce计算模型的气象资料处理调优试验

云计算技术使用分布式的计算技术实现了并行计算的计算能力和计算效率,解决了单机服务器计算能力低的问题。基于长序列历史资料所计算得出的气候标准值对于气象领域实时业务、准实时业务及科学研究中均具有重要的意义。由于长序列历史资料数据量大、运算逻辑较复杂,在传统单节点计算平台上进行整编计算耗时非常长。该文基于Hadoop分布式计算框架搭建了集群模式的云计算平台,以长序列历史资料作为源数据,基于MapReduce计算模型实现了部分整编算法,提高计算时效。同时,由于数据源本身具有文件个数多、单个文件小等特点,对数据源存储形式及数据文件大小进行改造,分别利用SequenceFile方式及文本文件合并方式对同一种场景进行计算时效对比测试,分别测试了10个文件合并、100个文件合并两种情况,使时效性得到了更大程度的提升。     

10颗近赤道弱源MK2VLBI观测结果

本文给出利用中国、意大利、南非射电望远镜对一个近赤道源样本在５ＧＨｚ频率上进行ＭＫ２ＶＬＢＩ普测中１０颗弱源的相关流量和其中部分源用ＨａｒｔＲＡＯ望远镜观测的总流量值，作为进一步的ＭＫ３或ＶＬＢＡ记录系统的ＶＬＢＩ观测依据．     

岩体裂隙粗糙度表征及其对裂隙渗流特性的影响

岩体裂隙粗糙程度对裂隙渗流特性的影响显著。利用三维光学扫描系统获取岩体裂隙面点云数据,结合SURFER和GEOMAGIC STUDIO等软件计算裂隙面节理粗糙度系数JRC和表面粗糙比率R_s,建立JRC与R_s的定量关系,开展应力、渗流和化学耦合作用下石灰岩裂隙渗流试验,研究JRC和R_s对粗糙裂隙渗流特性的影响。结果表明：JRC与R_s呈对数函数关系,其平方根R²为0.912 8,该表征公式与裂隙渗流试验结果最大相对误差MRE、平均绝对误差MAE和均方根误差RMSE分别为6.93%、0.34和0.27。JRC与渗流量、稳定期渗透率分别呈二次函数和对数函数关系,R_s和各参数的拟合关系与JRC相同。JRC值越大,渗流量和渗透率越小,且三场耦合作用下裂隙面JRC和R_s值均有所增大。该表征方法可用于岩体裂隙面粗糙度估算,由裂隙面JRC值可预测该裂隙渗流量和稳定时刻渗透率。