基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展

从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发, 介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3 种主要统计模型, 即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级) 尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4 个主要问题, 包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题, 提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。     

3种水稻土时间序列黏粒矿物的组合特征与物源指示意义

对南方丘陵区3种不同母质水稻土时间序列黏粒矿物的X-射线衍射（XRD）进行分析发现：① 紫色砂页岩（PS）母质起源土壤的黏粒矿物以高岭石类似矿物为主;第四纪红黏土（RC）母质起源土壤的黏粒矿物以高岭石类似矿物、伊利石类似矿物与三羟铝石为主;红砂岩（RS）母质起源土壤的黏粒矿物以1.4 nm过渡矿物、高岭石类似矿物与三羟铝石为主。② 这3种母质土壤种稻后黏粒矿物的变化大体可分为2种情况。RC与RS母质的起源土壤种稻后,土壤黏粒矿物的变化相对较小,伊利石类似矿物相对含量有所增加,这可能主要与钾肥的持续施用有关。PS母质的起源土壤种稻后,土壤黏粒矿物变化相对较大,表现为高岭石类似矿物相对含量降低,低结晶度的伊利石或次生绿泥石与三羟铝石相对含量上升。PS母质发育的土壤种稻后脱钾明显且主要集中在原生矿物部分。这种原生矿物的脱钾作用对土壤黏粒含量和黏粒矿物的类型都有较大影响。③ 起源土壤的黏粒矿物通常会被水稻土所继承,并在水稻土发育过程中相对稳定,可以用其来指示起源土壤（或母质）的物源组分。     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

江西省去年黄金产量同比增长3.67%

<正>2013年,江西省黄金行业克服金价下跌不利因素,加强金矿地质勘探,加快资源整合重组,黄金工业保持了健康稳定发展。该省去年全年生产黄金35.34吨,较上年增长3.67%,超额完成国家下达的黄金生产指导性计划8.74%。去年,江西省黄金产量实现增长主要是受冶炼企业黄金产量增长拉动,几家重点冶炼企业黄金产量或保持稳定,或大幅增产。2013     

有限灌溉对荒漠绿洲春玉米产量及产量性状的影响

对干旱环境下临泽荒漠绿洲春玉米进行了有限灌溉试验研究,旨在探究有限灌溉对绿洲玉米农田生产力的影响。结果表明,在所有处理中,全生育期灌水最少的处理MI1玉米籽粒产量比灌水量略高于它的处理MI2和灌水量较高的处理MI4增产25.7%和38.8%,但MI1与其他处理及对照间差异不显著。MI1处理全生育期灌水量最少,其产量不但未显著下降,反而高于灌水最多的对照CK。不同灌溉处理及对照间玉米穗粗、秃顶长、穗行数均不存在显著差异,但个别处理及对照间其他产量性状却存在差异,其中对照CK、处理MI5、MI1的穗长分别比处理MI4增加15.3%、13.6%和12.4%,对照CK和处理MI1、MI5的行粒数分别比MI4处理增加17.3%、13.9%和12.2%,对照CK的穗粒数分别比处理MI4、MI2和MI3增加19.3%、19.1%和14.5%,处理MI1的千粒重分别比MI4、MI5、CK增加26.9%、14.0%和14.0%。     

Agricultural Climate Change and Wetland Agriculture Study under the Climate Change in the Sanjiang Plain

With linear curvefitting, Mann-kendall method and Yamamoto method, ≥10 ℃accumulated temperature and precipitation from May to September of 6 meteorological stations (Baoqing, fujin, Jiamusi, Hegang, Jixi and Hulin) from 1978 to 2007 were used to explore 30-year agricultural climate change and trend in the Sanjiang Plain. The results showed that ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature of the 6 stations have risen by 141.0 ℃ to 287.4 ℃ when estimated by their significant linear trends (n=30, α=0.05) over the last 30 years (1978 to 2007). The rates of warming for the last 30 years range from 4.70 ℃per year to 9.58 ℃ per year. There are not significant linear trends on precipitation from May to September of the 6 stations over the last 30 years. The period of 1978 to 1998 in which ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature is lower is consistent with that in which there is more precipitation from May to September, and warming and drying period has occurred in the Sanjiang Plain since 1999. Under the background of warming and drying agricultural climate, high yield cultivation of Phragmites australis and establishment of Phragmites australis-fish (crab) symbiosis ecosystem in natural mire are the ways for reasonable use of natural wetland. The area of paddy fields has been increasing from 7.25×104 ha in 1978 to 121.2×104 ha in 2006. It is proposed that paddy field range should not be expanded blindly toward the north in the Sanjiang Plain, and chilling injury forecast and prevention should be pay attention to. In the area that the chilling injury happens frequently, the rotation between rice and other crops should be implemented. Measures, which combine drainage, store and irrigation, should be taken instead of single drainage on comprehensive control of regional low and wet croplands to ensure controlling drought and flood.     

水温气象条件对苜蓿生物产量的影响研究

苜蓿是世界范围内栽培和利用价值最高的豆科牧草，亦是发展草地畜牧业的理想草种。3年定位观察表明，不同苜蓿种的生物产量均受气象条件的制约，水分条件是主要限制因子，提高光能利用率是唯一提高苜蓿生物产量的有效措施。     

吐鲁番市地膜春小麦气候适应性及其高效载培技术的研究

根据田间试验资料,讨论了不同地膜覆盖对麦田土壤温度、土壤有效水分含量以及小麦生长发育产量形成的综合影响。结果表明：地膜覆盖具有显著的增温效应,可使春小麦生育期提前,产量提高,并可提高土壤有效水分的利用率。吐鲁番市地膜春麦最佳土著部方案应采用“膜下条播、３月初播种、５２５万株／ｈｍ＾２基本苗”。     

甘肃春小麦产量时空分布及其气候响应

利用近45 a甘肃省78县区春小麦实际产量生长期(3～6月)气温、降水和日照时数等资料,主要采用REOF和小波分析等方法,分析春小麦产量时空演变及气候响应。结果表明:1)甘肃春小麦产量由西向东、由北到南产量递减;2)存在河东、河西2个特别区域,春小麦在河西走廊地区高产而稳定,河东地区明显产量低且不稳定,陇中黄土高原地区最为突出;河西走廊区域产量变化与陇中反向,及河西产量偏高年份河东反而偏低,反之亦然。河东地区相关程度很高,产量变化与河西反向;3)河西走廊地区对气温响应敏感,甘肃黄土高原地区对干湿(降水)的变化敏感;4)响应最敏感区产量1991年之前变幅较小,之后变幅加大;丰欠年份相间,存在2～3 a的准振荡周期。