Physical Hydrography and Algal Bloom Transport in Hong Kong Waters

In sub-tropical coastal waters around Hong Kong, algal blooms and red tides are usually first sighted in the Mirs Bay, in the eastern waters of Hong Kong. A calibrated three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the Pearl River Estuary （Delft3D） has been applied to the study of the physical hydrography of Hong Kong waters and its relationship with algal bloom transport patterns in the dry and wet seasons. The general 3D hydrodynamic circulation and salinity structure in the partially-mixed estuary are presented. Extensive numerical surface drogue tracking experiments are performed for algal blooms that are initiated in the Mirs Bay under different seasonal, wind and tidal conditions. The probability of bloom impact on the Victoria Harbour and nearby urban coastal waters is estimated. The computations show that： i） In the wet season （May - August）, algal blooms initiated in the Mirs Bay will move in a clockwise direction out of the bay, and be transported away from Hong Kong due to SW monsoon winds which drive the SW to NE coastal current; ii） In the dry season （November- April）, algal blooms initiated in the northeast Mirs Bay will move in an anti-clockwise direction and be carried away into southern waters due to the NE to SW coastal current driven by the NE monsoon winds; the bloom typically flows past the east edge of the Victoria Harbeur and nearby waters. Finally, the role of hydrodynamic transport in an important episodic event -- the spring 1998 massive red tide -- is quantitatively examined. It is shown that the strong NE to E wind during late March to early April, coupled with the diurnal tide at the beginning of April, significantly increased the probability of bloom transport into the Port Shelter and East Lamma Channel, resulting in the massive fish kill. The results provide a basis for risk assessment of harmful algal bloom （HAB） impact on urban coastal waters around the Victoria Habour.     

A model study of influence of circulation on the pollutant transport in the Zhujiang River Estuary and adjacent coastal waters

A tracer model with random diffusion coupled to the hydrodynamic model for the Zhujiang River Estuary (Pearl River Estuary, PRE) is to examine the effect of circulations on the transport of completely conservative pollutants. It is focused on answering the following questions: (1) What role does the estuarine plume front in the winter play in affecting the pollutants transport and its distribution in the PRE? (2) What effect do the coastal currents driven by the monsoon have on the pollutants transport? The tracer experiment results show that: (1) the pollutant transport paths strongly depend on the circulation structures and plume frontal dynamics of the PRE and coastal waters; (2) during the summer when a southwesterly monsoon prevails, the pollutants from the four easterly river inlets and those from the bottom layer of offshore stations will greatly influence the water quality in Hong Kong waters, however, the pollutants released from the four westerly river-inlets will seldom affect the water quality of Hong Kong waters due to their transport away from Hong Kong; (3) during the winter when a northeasterly monsoon prevails, all pollutants released from the eight river gates will be laterally transported seaward inside the estuary and transport westward in the coastal waters along the river plume frontal zone. However, pollutants released from the surface layer of offshore stations near or east of the Dangan Channel will be carried into the coastal waters of Hong Kong by the landward component of the westward coastal current driven by the winter northeasterly monsoon. But the pollutants from the bottom layer of the offshore stations will be carried away from the offshore by the bottom flow driven by the northeasterly monsoon. This implies that only surface-released matter from offshore stations will affect the water quality of the coastal waters around Hong Kong during the winter when a northeasterly monsoon prevails.     

中国酸性沉降物致酸机理的研究

本文通过对青岛酸雾酸度、化学组份和致酸组份的研究,理论分析与实际观测相结合得出天然存在的硫氮碳化合物可使酸性沉降物的pH=4.4～5.6,青岛酸备pH界限值为4.9,并把青岛酸雾的化学组份与美国加州酸雾进行比较,青岛(乃至中国)的酸性沉降物以SO_4~(2-)为主,美国以NO_3~-为主,提出了用“总致酸量/pH”作为酸雾新的判据,并用“硫/硝”比确立酸性沉降物的4种     

汞、砷、铬、苯酚对东方对虾幼体急性致毒的实验研究

通过实验室内的短期实验评价了砷、汞、铬、苯酚对东方对虾溞状幼体和糠虾幼体的毒性分别给出了各毒性对不同对虾幼体的96h LC_(50)。     

肇庆市突发事件预警信息发布决策辅助系统的设计与应用

介绍了基于Google Earth三维地理信息系统(3D GIS)的肇庆市突发事件预警发布决策辅助系统的设计与应用。系统实现了:1)接入各应急单位行业的数据与视频信息,统观全局、快速合理地进行资源调配。2)接入各种灾害预警及逃生模型,可科学决策、合理划定撤离区域,规划逃生路线。3)靶向圈选或区域选择预警灾害区域,多渠道一键式发布预警。     

低浓度Zn对中国对虾的亚急性致毒效应

Ⅰ. 材料和方法 Ⅰ.1 饲养试验 实验用对虾于1987年8月上旬取自青岛市黄岛对虾养殖场,平均体长为6.5cm(范围为5.3～7.4cm),平均体重3.5g。对虾运回经过几天暂养后,分成3组,每组50尾,分别移入含Zn:0.1、0.5和1.0mg/L     

管节点与船舶甲板结构中疲劳裂纹扩展方向的研究

线性断裂力学中研究裂纹的扩展通常用应力强度因子的断裂准则，但是对复合型裂纹，应力强度因子理论就发生了困难。本文用光弹性方法求得裂纹前缘的应力强度因子，然后用应变能密度因子理论研究了船舶大开口舱口角隅处疲劳裂纹和Ｔ型管节点热点处表面裂纹的扩展规律和方向，得到较好的结果     

畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程和风险评估研究进展与展望

畜牧业雪灾是牧区冬、春季节最严重的自然灾害之一,往往会造成大量牲畜伤亡,严重威胁和制约了牧区畜牧业生产和高质量发展,未来气候变化使得畜牧业雪灾风险存在着更大的不确定性。论文基于区域自然灾害系统理论,梳理了畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程和风险评估的理论框架,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体等方面系统总结了当前研究进展,以及存在的主要问题。最后针对今后畜牧业雪灾研究进行了展望,主要包括以下6个方面：① 增强草高估算和雪深反演精度研究;② 深化积雪分配过程研究及多致灾因子与孕灾环境耦合的危险性分析;③ 强化缺氧环境对畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程的影响机制研究;④ 加强牲畜暴露分布的时空变化研究;⑤推进畜牧业雪灾减灾措施的成本效益分析;⑥ 加强气候变化背景下畜牧业雪灾风险定量评估和多学科交叉研究。     

青海省洪涝灾害及致洪降雨特征综合分析

利用2008-2020年青海省常规气象站和区域站逐小时降雨资料,以及青海省洪涝灾情直报记录,使用直接经济损失、受灾总人数、倒塌房屋数、农业经济损失、农业受灾面积等多种灾情要素以比值法构建灾损指数,再利用百分位法将洪涝灾害划分为一般、较重、严重、特重四个等级。分析不同等级洪涝灾害分布特征及差异性,并与青海省降雨特征进行对比分析。综合利用主成分分析、箱线图分析以及相关分析等方法,探讨导致青海省洪涝灾害的主要降雨因子以及区域间的差异性特征。结果表明：青海省洪涝灾害频发,洪涝灾害所造成损失总体呈现加剧状态,较重、特重灾害在2016年后频次明显增多,而每年7、 8月则是青海省洪涝灾害高发时期。洪涝灾害频发区域和受灾最为严重区域均位于青海省东部,其中海南州是洪涝灾害最为频发区域,海东市是灾害损失最严重区域。诱发青海省洪涝灾害的降雨过程主要为大雨以上降雨。青海省致洪降雨过程可分为两类,第一类降雨过程历时短但雨强大,造成累积降雨量较大,降雨历时在12 h内。第二类为降雨过程历时较长造成累积雨量较大,这类降雨历时超过12 h。诱发青海省东部城市洪涝灾害的降雨过程以第一类为主,多发于青海省东部城市海南、黄...     

基于地形订正技术的安徽冰雹灾害风险区划

地形订正是保证冰雹灾害风险区划结果准确的关键环节。利用1978—2020年安徽省81个国家级气象观测站冰雹观测资料以及地理信息、国内生产总值、历史灾情等数据,采用相关分析、回归分析等统计方法,识别冰雹灾害致灾因子,并计算其致灾强度,建立冰雹频次的地形修正方法,综合冰雹致灾强度和频次开展致灾危险性评估。基于自然灾害风险形成理论,综合致灾危险性和承灾体易损性,借助GIS技术完成冰雹灾害经济风险区划,并对结果的合理性进行了验证。结果表明：(1)最大冰雹直径和降雹持续时间与冰雹灾损指数显著相关,确定二者为冰雹灾害致灾因子;地形修正后的冰雹频次空间分布特征与实际发生情况一致,且能更精细地反映出高海拔山区的冰雹频次空间差异程度;(2)冰雹多发区、高和较高危险区均位于安徽省冰雹主要路径上的淮河以北地区、江淮之间东部地区以及大别山区和皖南山区两大山区;(3)冰雹灾害经济风险总体上自南向北逐渐增大。通过灾情验证,安徽省冰雹灾害经济风险指数与直接经济损失多年平均值的相关系数通过α=0.01显著性水平检验,区划结果与实际情况基本吻合。