为了更好的研究四川成都地区2008年9月23日~25日强降水天气的物理机制,利用中尺度天气预报模式(Weather Research Forecast,WRF)模拟了此次过程,并结合FY-2号C星云图资料,对过程的发生、发展过程进行分析后发现,此次暴雨过程为低层弱低压辐合,同时台风"黑格比"登陆后带来大量水汽,并借助西伸的西太平洋副高源源不断的向四川盆地输送,另外存在来自南方孟加拉湾水汽的持续供应,对流云团形成于地面低压与西伸副高的交界处,并沿着副高边缘由西南向东北移动,雨带分布在副高边缘气压梯度大的地方,模拟结果与观测事实基本相符。利用WRF模式模拟暴雨产生的环流形势,配合卫星云图,能进一步揭示暴雨产生的物理机制,可作为深化暴雨研究的有效手段。 相似文献
利用国防科技大学全球中期数值天气预报模式(YinHe Global Spetral model,YHGS)产品驱动WRF对2018年7月4日华中地区暴雨过程进行模拟,并与ERA-interim资料作初始场模拟结果对比,评估YHGS模式产品在此次暴雨过程预报中的应用能力。结果表明:(1)WRF-YHGS对2018年7月4日华中地区暴雨过程有一定的预报能力,其模拟的大尺度环流形势、水汽收支量变化趋势与WRF-ERA有着很好的一致性,YHGS模式产品驱动中尺度数值预报是可行的。(2)WRF-YHGS模拟效果较WRF-ERA差,但大雨量级WRF-ERA湿偏差较大,两组试验各物理量模拟结果存在一定差距,且随着积分时间的增加差异逐渐增大。(3)WRF-YHGS、WRF-ERA模拟结果的差异主要来自YHGS与ERA初始场中差异较大的次天气尺度运动和YHGS全球模式预报场误差两个方面。
The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA). 相似文献