2006年广安特大伏旱100年一遇

2006年盛夏,广安市遭遇了历史上最严重高温天气和特大伏旱灾害.此次伏旱期间降雨量极少,高温强度大、持续时间长,灾害异常严重.关于这场旷日持久的高温干旱,究竟是50年一遇,还是100年一遇?对此,我们从气象角度,依据有关资料进行分析,提出了一些看法.     

新一代多普勒天气雷达产品在强对流天气中的应用

通过对2005年6月28日强对流天气的天气形势及多普勒雷达回波强度、径向速度、垂直液态水含量、垂直风廓线、冰雹指数等雷达产品的分析，总结出在一定环流背景下，多普勒雷达产品的一些定量指标及其规律，从而为今后分析这类天气打下基础。     

The Impact Cooling of the Storm-Induced SST on Hurricane Intensity

The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature （SST） cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie （1998）. Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.     

Characteristics of near-fault ground motion containing velocity pulses

There are many reports about the research on near-fault velocity pulses, which focus on the generation of velocity pulse and simplify the velocity pulse so as to be used in the seismic design of structure, However few researches have put emphasis on the characteristics of near-fault ground motions containing velocity pulses, especially the characteristics relevant with the design response spectrum prescribed by the code. Through collection of a large number of near-fault records containing velocity pulses, the response spectra and the characteristic periods of records containing no pulses are compared with those of records containing pulses. Response spectra of near-fault records are compared with standard spectra given by code; furthermore, the response spectra and the characteristic periods of each earthquake are compared with that given by code. The result shows that at long periods （longer than 1.5 s）, the response spectrum of pulse-containing records is bigger than the response spectrum of no-pulse-containing records; when the characteristic period of near-fault records is calculated, the method that does not fix frequency is more reasonable because the T1 and T2 have a lagging tendency; regardless of the site Ⅰ and site Ⅱ, the characteristic period of pulse-containing records is over twice bigger than the characteristic period given by the code,     

A Preliminary Study of Palaeoearthquakes on the Maqu Fault of East Kunlun Fault Zone

INTRODUCTIONThe east Kunlun active fault is an important NWWtrending boundary fault on the northeasternmargin of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau.The fault extends fromthe northside of the Qiangtangmassif in the west,runs eastward through the Kusai Lake,Dongdatan,Xidatan,Tuosuo Lake andMaqu to the north of Zoig毢(Van Der Woerd,et al.,2002;Ma Yinsheng,et al.,2005;Seismological Bureau of Qinghai Province,et al.,1999;Li Chunfeng,et al.2004).The intenseleft-lateral strike-slip move…     

五轮山井田初期采区矿井充水因素分析

通过对五轮山井田水文地质条件、地表水及地下水动态特征及井巷开拓过程中反映的水文地质资料的研究与分析,认为正常情况下,五轮山井田各含水层对煤层开采不构成直接威胁,浅部煤层开采时局部与第四系孔隙水会有直接的水力联系,矿井田初期开采防范的重点是老窑积水和断层导水,其造成的灾害可能是毁灭性的。     

巴姆地震变形场和应力场：Ⅰ．用差分干涉雷达和Okada方法求解

本文对2003年12月26日伊朗东南部克尔曼省巴姆地区发生的6.6级地震产生的位移场、应变场和应力降分布进行了定量研究。首先从差分干涉雷达(D～InSAR)出发,求解出此次地震的同震干涉条纹和雷达视线方向的位移场,并从雷达干涉的相干图上清楚的观察到了发震断层的痕迹,得出此次地震的发震断层是巴姆断层以西的隐伏断层的结论。然后结合 Harvard 的 CMT(震源机制解)结果、Nakamura 的断层结果(Arg-e-Bam 隐伏断层)以及本文 D-InSAR 求解出的发震断层结果,利用 Okada 程序,计算出此次地震的北、东、垂向三个位移分量,投影得到雷达视线方向的位移,将投影结果与由 D-InSAR得到的位移场比较,看到我们所讨论的断层模式可以很好的解释差分干涉雷达的观测结果,可以合理的解释 Arg-e-Bam 隐伏断层为此次地震的发震破裂断层,通过分析地震的破坏程度分布图,隐伏断层为发震断层的解释可以很好的符合巴姆地震的等震分布图。最后,本文利用 Okada 程序计算得到了此次地震所产生的应变场和应力降场。     

高喜马拉雅板块的槽流和韧性喷出:以锡金喜马拉雅Kangchenjunga-Darjeeling剖面为例

锡金西部和孟加拉北部的高喜马拉雅变质层序Kangchenjunga-Darjeeling剖面,是一个厚约15~20km、向南喷出的韧性槽,其以藏南折离和主中央冲断层之间的韧性剪切带为界。在Yok-sam-Kangchenjunga剖面,整个岩块由混合岩或淡色花岗岩岩片组成。淡色花岗岩巨大的岩床,或近水平状到略北倾的岩片组成整个Kangchenjunga地块,并西延到Jannu。剪切方向标志显示出纯剪切扁平组构和非共轴向南的单一剪切组构。在Singallila山脊和Darjeeling飞来峰南缘一带可见充填了熔融物质的槽的熔融壳,已证实呈由夕线石-钾长石级向下经蓝晶石和十字石至石榴子石-黑…     

内蒙古东乌旗哈巴特盖银多金属矿土壤地球化学异常特征

哈巴特盖测区1／5万土壤地球化学测量发现了4个异常区，多元素组合异常多分布在黑云母二长花岗岩的内、外接触带上，土壤地球化学异常特征显示本区成矿是多期次的，多元素组合异常在露头矿和盲矿上方均有出现，且异常连续、浓集中心明显，异常的强度和规模大，呈带状、宽带状或面状产出。     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON INTENSITY CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

55-year (1949 - 2003) data sets are used to study the statistical characteristics in intensity change of the tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific. According to the mathematical meaning of average value and standard deviation, the abruptly intensifying, gradually intensifying, stable intensity, gradually weakening and abruptly weakening of TC intensity are defined and the statistical characteristics, such as inter-decadal variation, inter-annual variation, inter-monthly variation, and regional distribution, etc. are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) From 1949 to 2003, there were 1886 TCs, averaging at 34.29 TCs per year. After 1995, the number of TCs dropped dramatically with less than 30 per year. 3.56% of the total were abruptly intensifying samples, and 3.31% were weakening samples. (2) For the annual mean, all but the stable group tend to decrease with the shift of decades as far as the overall change of the 6-h isallobaric process is concerned. (3) The abruptly intensifying TC seldom occurs over mid- and high-latitude area (north of 30°N) and low-latitude area and sometimes occurs around the islands and continent. Basically there is no gradually intensifying of TC over mid- and high- latitude area (north of 30°N and west of 125°E), in offshore Chinese waters. The gradually weakening and abruptly weakening TCs usually occur offshore China, west of 125 °E, but seldom over low-latitude area (0 - 5°N).