中国地区气溶胶的辐射强迫及其气候响应试验

根据国内测定的排放因子数据和国家、部委及各省市统计年鉴公布的排放源数据,得到的中国大陆的1°×1°网格精度的SO2的排放分布,计算了中国地区人为扰动气溶胶的辐射强迫。应用近期开发的二维能量平衡模式计算了由该种气溶胶所引起的中国地区地面温度变化。模式结果表明,最大辐射强迫和最大地面温度变化都集中在中国的沿海和四川地区。最大辐射强迫达3 W/m2。     

蓝色新事

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会近期在斯德哥尔摩审议并通过了关于气候变化的自然科学基础报告。报告显示，全球变暖证据确凿，北极冰川融化速度已经翻了一倍，海平面上升速度加快。如果温室气体排放有增无减，地球将面临不可想象的灾难。     

A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

选择IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,利用区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与作物模型(CERES-Rice)耦合,采用雨养与灌溉两种方式,并综合考虑未来CO2浓度增加带来的直接增益效应,模拟了未来2020s及2040s两个时段气候变化对福建省水稻生育期与产量的影响。结果表明:无论是雨养方式还是灌溉方式,未来全省各稻区水稻生育期都将缩短,并且随着温度增高,2040s时段缩短的时间较2020s更长,单季稻生育期缩短时间最长,可达15~20 d。雨养条件下,除了闽东南双季稻区后季稻在2020s时段表现为2.3%(A2)和3.1%(B2)较小幅度的增产外,其他稻区各种稻作制度下的水稻产量较之BASE均出现了不同幅度的减产。闽西北稻区后季稻减产幅度最大,2020s时段A2和B2情景下减产幅度依次为6.9%和10.2%,2040s时段减产幅度进一步加大至14.1%和15.6%。闽东南稻区后季稻模拟结果较为乐观,尤其是在灌溉条件下表现为不同幅度的增产,两种情景下分别增产了1.7%、3.9%。双季稻种植区的后季稻产量稳定性均不如早稻和单季稻的,且随着温度升高,到2040s产量不稳定性有增加的趋势。灌溉在一定程度上可以缓解未来高温天气带来的产量波动。从全省的总产变化趋势来看,A2和B2两种排放情景模拟的结果都不容乐观,即使采用充分灌溉的方式,也依旧表现为减产。2020s时段,两种情景下分别减产0.74%与2.44%;2040s时段,两种情景下减产为3.50%与3.23%。未来早稻和单季稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润,与之相关的灌溉需要量均有所增加。     

山东某铁矿区地面塌陷成因判别及其意义

山东省济南市东郊某在建铁矿,于2009年7月产生了严重的地面塌陷。通过环境地质调查发现,该矿区地面塌陷并非通常所说的采空区塌陷,而是岩溶地面塌陷。该结论为矿山地面塌陷防治提供了依据,更重要的是否定了第四系厚度大(大于35m)不能产生岩溶地面塌陷的已有认识,并预示隐伏岩溶发育地区,随着上覆松散土体厚度的加大,一旦产生岩溶地面塌陷,其规模和危害也将随之增大。     

中亚热带2种天然林表层土壤N_2O排放速率

运用静态箱-气相色谱法对中亚热带地区米槠天然林和阿丁枫天然林土壤N2O排放速率进行了1年(2012年1月—2013年1月)原位观测,分析了土壤温度及含水量对土壤N2O排放速率的影响,并探讨土壤无机N含量变化与土壤N2O排放速率的关系。结果表明,观测期间,2种天然林均表现为大气N2O排放源,米槠天然林和阿丁枫天然林平均土壤N2O排放速率分别为7.29μg·m-2·h-1、7.41μg·m-2·h-1;米槠天然林和阿丁枫天然林土壤N2O排放速率季节变化明显,最高排放速率均出现在夏季6月,分别为16.51μg·m-2·h-1、18.86μg·m-2·h-1;2个林分N2O排放速率最低值分别出现在2012年1月和2012年9月,分别为3.04μg·m-2·h-1和2.17μg·m-2·h-1。2种天然林土壤N2O排放速率均与土壤温度无显著相关性,与土壤含水量显著正相关(P0.05);2种天然林土壤N2O排放速率与NH4+含量均无显著相关性,米槠天然林和阿丁枫天然土壤N2O排放速率与NO3-含量分别呈显著负相关和显著正相关(P0.05)。研究结果表明,土壤含水量及NO3-含量的变化对中亚热带天然林土壤N2O排放速率有着重要的影响。     

煤炭从价征税实施在即

国务院办公厅近日印发《2014—2015年节能减排低碳发展行动方案》。根据方案,2014年到2015年,单位GDP能耗、化学需氧量、二氧化硫、氨氮、氮氧化物排放量将分别逐年下降3.9%、2%、2%、2%、5%以上,单位GDP二氧化碳排放量两年分别下降4%、3.5%以上。     

盐度对河口潮汐湿地温室气体产生和排放的影响研究进展

盐度是影响河口潮汐湿地温室气体动态的一个重要的环境因子。本文论述了盐度对河口潮汐湿地温室气体的产生和排放的影响及机制。盐水入侵通过带来丰富的SO42-引起的硫酸盐效应、离子强度增加引起的离子效应影响CH4和CO2的产生。盐水入侵通过影响湿地的硝化作用、反硝化作用及硝化细菌反硝化作用进而影响N2O产生量,影响方式主要包括:(1)通过物理化学机制加强沉积物中铵的释放;(2)通过生理机制增加沉积物氮素释放量,直接影响硝化细菌、反硝化细菌活性,进而影响硝化作用和反硝化作用;(3)通过提高硝酸盐异化还原为铵的速率影响反硝化速率。最后提出了今后应加强研究的方向。     

Perceptions of climate change in China: The research and policy connection

Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem oI worlOwloe rater- est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec- essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change.     

Water discharge variability of Changjiang （Yangtze） and Huanghe （Yellow） Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe （Yellow） River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis （EMD- MESA） method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.     

《气候变化研究进展》征稿细则

<正>1.《气候变化研究进展》是受国家气候委员会委托,由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的气候变化领域内由自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术刊物.2.本刊设有"气候系统变化"、"气候变化影响"、"气候变化适应"、"温室气体排放"、"对策论坛"、"渊查研究"和"简汛"等栏目,并定期就某一专题组稿、约稿,以专栏形式发表.综述类论文以约稿为主,一般不接受自由投稿.