Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Theoretical Analysis of A Buoyant Jet Interacting with Small Amplitude Waves

A new theoretical solution is presented here for the dynamic characteristics of a buoyant jet due to opposing small amplitude waves.The conservation equations of mass,tangential momentum and vertical momentum are solved by the integral method which encompasses the Gaussian profiles of velocity and density.The action of waves is incorporated into the equations of motion as an external force and a new exact solution is obtained to predict the trajectory,velocity distribution and boundary thickness of the buoyant jet over an arbitrary lateral cross section.It is found that the velocity along the centerline is inversely proportional to the ratio of the momentum of the wave to the buoyant jet.The averaged boundary width varies with the fluctuation of the boundary width,the distance from the orifice and the velocity correction function.Owing to the motion d waves,the fluctuation of the boundary width is proportional to the wave steepness.     

龙口港湾大振幅假潮的成因分析

龙口湾位于山东半岛北部,莱州湾东北隅,为莱州湾的一个附属海湾.海湾湾口朝向西南,湾廓近似半圆形,属半封闭海湾.龙口验潮站位于湾顶(图1),水深7m.     

近期长江大通至南京河段潮动力变化趋势与机制

近期长江感潮河段径、潮动力已然发生变化,但其变化机制与趋势有待进一步探讨。通过对长江大通至南京河段的野外调查,并分析了近40年来大通、芜湖和南京站水文资料,探讨了近期该河段的潮动力变化机制与趋势。结果表明:近年来长江大通至南京段潮动力有增强趋势。具体表现为相近径流量条件,潮差平均增大约10 cm,主要分潮振幅增加10%～30%,潮汐形态系数有减小趋势。引起上述变化的原因可能有:(1)近期感潮河段整体冲刷变深导致潮波上溯阻力减小;(2)口外潮汐动力增强以及海平面上升等使潮汐上溯能力增强。此外,长江流域修建了大量水库群,导致该河段径流量变化由自然因素主导变成自然与人为调控共同作用为主,从而影响了潮动力的相对强弱。     

2007年宁洱6.4级地震余震序列尾波QC值研究

基于Aki和Chouet的地方震尾波单次散射模型,利用思茅台记录到的2007年云南宁洱6.4地震余震的数字化波形观测资料,测量了震源区尾波Qc(f)值。当中心频率为1.5Hz时,宁洱地区的尾波Qc值在51～147之间,平均值为79,尾波的振幅衰减率βc(f)在0.014～0.039之间,平均值为0.028;测量得到该地区尾波Qc值与频率f的关系为Qc(f)=53f0.88;尾波波源因子与震级成正比关系,满足关系lgA0=1.51ML-0.94;测量结果显示宁洱地震余震序列的尾波值Qc较低,表明宁洱震源区属于构造运动较为活跃区。     

2021年3月24日新疆拜城Ms5.4地震震前异常分析

对2021年3月24日拜城Ms5.4地震震前异常进行回顾总结,分析其震前地震学异常,包括地震平静、天山中段3、4级地震异常增强、拜城地震窗、阿克苏单台振幅比和小震调制比等中短期异常.研究结果表明本次地震震前异常主要为地震平静类异常,共有4项,按出现时间顺序分别为:乌苏—拜城地区ML4.0地震平静,拜城—乌鲁木齐地区Ms...     

实测视复电阻率振幅谱换算相位的可行性

从理论上阐述了由视复电阻率振幅谱换算视相位谱的可行性之后,结合实际情况考察这种换算过程中误差的传递情况。得出结论:这种换算虽理论上可行,而实际中一般是不可行的。这一结论的意义在于视相位谱资料一般只能实际采集。尽管这样做要降低野外工作效率。     

产生有限差分合成地震图的最佳震源时间函数

震源时间函数在产生有限差分合成地震图中起着十分重要的作用。鉴于此, 我们考虑了5种不同的时间函数的振幅谱。结果表明, 当时间函数的高频信号比主信号携带更多的能量时, 伴随着主信号成分将出现我们所不希望的拖尾现象。本文说明, 在所考虑的几种用于产生有限差分合成地震图的震源时间函数中, 形如f(t)=te-2的时间函数是最佳的。由具有一个覆盖层的半无限空间弹性地球模型, 来产生有限差分合成地震图证实了这个结论。      

中国东部六省 Lg 波振幅比 H/Z 和台站项/

根据中国东部六省80个台的约1Hz Lg 波振幅资料得出,Lg 波水平与竖直分量之比1g H/Z 值平均为0.13.对于松散沉积、花岗岩和沉积岩类台基,1g H/Z 值分别平均为0.55,0.04和0.10对此三类台基,水平向振幅台站项 Ch,分别平均为0.65,-0.09和0.00;竖直向振幅台站项 C2分别为0.32-0.04和0.00.Ch,CZ 和1gH/Z 间存在关系 Ch=0.01+2.10Cz和 Ch=-0.15+1.46 1gH/Z.