Estimation of the Resolution of Earth＇s Gravity Field for GRACE Follow-On Using the Spectrum Method

利用轨道扰动引力谱和大地水准面累计误差谱分析的方法估计未来GRACE（gravity recovery and climate experimenl）Follow—On卫星反演地球重力场的空间分辨率。基于GRACEFollow—On卫星的轨道特性,计算其在高空所受到的径向扰动引力,并根据谱特性及星载加速度计的测量噪声水平分析该卫星能反演重力场的阶数。利用EGM96重力场模型分别计算200km和250km轨道高度处的扰动引力谱。分析其特性表明：在两个轨道高度处分别能反演281阶和242阶的地球重力场模型。给出大地水准面累计误差谱模型,并计算200km和250km轨道高度处大地水准面累计误差谱。分析其谱特性表明：在两个轨道高度处分别能反演至286阶和228阶的地球重力场模型。     

The Mesoscale Predictability of a Heavy Precipitation Event

Using the mesoscale model MM5, the development of initial condition uncertainties at different scales and amplitudes and their influences on the mesoscale predictability of the ＂0185＂ Shanghai heavy precipitation event are investigated. It is found that different initial conditions obtained from different globe model analyses lead to large variations in the simulated location and strength of the heavy precipitation, and the scales and amplitudes of the initial condition perturbations significantly influence the model error growth. The power spectrum evolution of the difference total energy （DTE） between a control simulation and a sensitivity experiment indicates that the error growth saturates after 12 h, which is the predictable time limit of the heavy precipitation event. The power spectrum evolution of the accumulated precipitation difference between the control and sensitivity simulations suggests a loss of the mesoscale predictability for precipitation systems of scales smaller than 300 kin, i.e., the predictable space for the heavy precipitation event is beyond 300 km. The results also show that the initial uncertainties at larger scales and amplitudes generally result in larger forecast divergence than the uncertainties at smaller scales and amplitudes. The predictable forecasting time and space can be expanded （e.g., from 12 to 15 h, and from beyond 300 kin to beyond 200 km） under properly prescribed initial perturbations at smaller scales and amplitudes.     

日美成功开发台风预测新模型

由日美研究人员组成的一个联合小组最近成功开发出一种新的气象模型。这种利用超级计算机“地球模拟器”计算气流数据的新模型可以准确预测出在两周后形成的台风的移动轨迹及其对未来天气的影响。     

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.     

集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征

初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键.本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风...     

非开挖铺管中定向钻进轨迹设计研究

对非开挖工程中水平定向钻进轨迹最优化设计进行了深入研究。应用最优化理论的动态规划思想,以钻进台时为优化指标,根据障碍物位置、大小和钻孔参数,建立了轨迹设计的最优化模型;并推导出绕过两个障碍物的局部轨迹最优化函数,通过坐标变换,简化了兰维空间轨迹设计问题;开发了相应的软件实现模型的求解。