中国的重复性地震事件

从1985年到2000年间，中国及其邻近地区大约10％的地震事件属于重复性地震事件，并且彼此间不超过1km。我们对约14000个地震和爆炸的地震图做互相关，计算了相对到时约0．01 s，并使横向定位精度达到了100m～300m。这样的精度对于地震危险性研究、地震物理、禁止核试验的核查都非常重要。通过对已有的资料重复性信号的识别和测量，提高了定位精度，改进了在读取初至到时和定位方面目前程序的不精确性。     

土壤的冷生构造及其对阿拉斯加土地利用的意义

Cryogenic structure (patterns made by ice inclusions) in seasonally frozen and permafrost-af-fected soils result from ice formation during freezing. Analysis of cryogenic structures in soils is essential to our understanding of the cryogenic processes in soils and to formulating land use management interpretations. When soils freeze, the freezing front moves downward and attracts water moving upward resulting in mainly horizontal lenticular ice formation. Platy and lenticular soil structures form between ice lenses in upper active layer. The reticular soil structure usually forms above the permafrost table caused by freeze-back of the permafrost. The upward freeze-back resulted in platy soil structure and the volume changes following the annual freeze-thaw cycle resulted in vertical cracks. The combined result is an ice-net formation with mineral soils embedded in the ice net. The upper permafrost layer that used to be a part of the active layer has an ice content exceeding 50% due to repeated freeze-thaw cycles over time. The mineral soils appear in blocks embedded in an ice matrix. The permafrost layer that never experienced the freeze-thaw cycle often consists of alternate layers of thin ice lens and frozen soils with extreme hard consistence and has relatively lower ice content than the ice-rich layer of the upper permafrost. Ice contents and thaw settling potentials associated with each cryogenic structure should be considered in engineering and land use interpretations.     

The Present Space-Time Motion and Deformation Features of the Northeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Xizang（Tibet） Block and Its Adjacent Area

On the basis of Discontinuous Deformation Analysis (DDA), and considering the moderate intrusion of specific block boundaries to different extents, the first-order block motion model is established for the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) block and the kinematical model for depicting deformation of small regions as well by using GPS observations of three periods (1991, 1999 and 2001). By simulating, we obtained the motion features of the firstorder blocks between the large WWN faults on the sides of the studied region, the distribution features of the principal strain rate field and the inhomogeneous motion features with spacetime of the faults in the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block.     

The Rotational Structure along the Eastern Segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault and Its Implications in Dynamics

As a result of the left-lateral strike-slipping of the Altyn Tagh fault in Neotectonic period, a contra-rotational structure, namely the Zhaobishan vortex structure, has developed at the juncture of the main Altyn Tagh fault and the northern fringe fault of the Qilian Mountains.Preliminary analysis on the deformation and evolution of the Zhaobishan vortex structure. In combination with the previous data, suggests that the tectonic transform between the Altyn Tagh fault and the northern fringe fault of the Qilian Mountains attributes to the deformation of the rotational structure. The existence of a series of rotational structures along the Altyn Tagh fault and on the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) plateau indicate that as the substance in the northern Qinghal-Xizang (Tibet) plateau moves clockwise around the eastern tectonic knot of the Himalayas, rotational structures become the principal mode on the northern marginal zone of the Plateau of transforming and absorbing tectonic deformation.     

Features of the M7.9 Earthquake in the Russia- Mongolia- China Boundary Region

At 19:33 p. m on September 27, 2003, an earthquake with M7.9 occurred in the RussiaMongolia-China boundary Region. It was strongly felt in the Altay region of Xinjiang. The losses caused by the earthquake was 76 million yuan (RMB). Some information about the earthquake was outlined, including basic parameters, focal mechanism, evaluation of earthquake disaster losses and so on. The satellite remote sensing information worked initial analysis for deformation of ground and failure phenomenon.     

A Preliminary Analysis of Relations Between Tectonic Deformation of Sedimentary Cover and Basement in Kuqa Depression

Study of seismic activity in the Kuqa area enables us to infer some possible active faults in basement from the epicentral distribution on different profiles. The relations between active faults in the basement and surface structures are analyzed and the difference between sedimentary cover and basement in their deformation characteristics and the genesis are discussed. The following conclusions have been drawn : ( 1 ) the epicentral distribution indicates that, the east Qiulitag and south and north Qiulitag deep faults in the basement correspond to the east and west Qiulitag anticlines, respectively. Moreover, deep faults also exist beneath the Yiqiklik and Yaken anticlines. It indicates that the formation of surface structures is controlled by deep structures; (2) A NE-trending strike-slip fault develops along the line from the western termination of Yiqiklik structure to Dongqiu Well 5 and a NW-trending active fault on the western side of Baicbeng. The two active faults across the tectonic strike are the main causes for tectonic segmentation of the Kuqa depression and possibly the cause for the middle segment (Kuqa-Baicheng) of the depression to be more shortened than both its eastern and western terminations; (3) The difference between the sedimentary cover and basement in their deformation characteristics depends mainly on the different properties of media between them.The lithospheric strength of the basement in the basin is fairly high, which determines the basement deformation to be mainly of brittle fracture seismic activity. While the strength of sedimentary cover is low, where there exist weak thin layers, such as coal and gyps. Under the effect of strong tectonic compression, the sedimentary rocks may undergo strong viscous or plastic flow deformation; meanwhile, an aseismic detachment may take place along the weak layers.     

运用改进系统建模法对南海气象数据的建模研究

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,对南海气象数据中的温度进行建模并验证了模型的适用性.根据模型推导出格林函数、逆函数和自协方差函数等,并讨论了南海气象数据中温度模型的稳定性、可逆性和合理性.对系统的频率特性和谱函数进行分析讨论,并给出建模过程中的一些图像.根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的气象数据而言,ARMA(4, 3)模型是最合适的,具有平稳可逆性.所有的建模和分析过程在MATLAB上实现.实验结果表明这种建模方案简便易行,能够快速准确地确定系统的合理模型.     

小波分析思想在中尺度对流活动研究中的应用

应用近些年在大气科学领域被广泛采用的小波分析方法,基于小波分析思想提取GMS红外卫星云图中的中-β尺度对流云信息,分析中-β尺度对流活动特征.构造了理想小波函数模板,对四种理想云模型进行了实验分析,建立了小波变换提取云的中心位置和水平尺度等信息的方法.并应用该方法对中-β尺度对流活动实例进行分析和追踪实验.此外,还应用小波分析方法对2001年夏季(6～8月)我国中、东部地区的中-β尺度对流活动进行了统计分析,揭示出了这一区域中-β尺度对流活动的分布规律、强度变化等特征.     

通用客观预报工具设计

通用客观预报工具设计是根据预报人员在制作预报过程中的基本经验为基础。借用逐步回归的教学方法。从Micaps系统中提取上游气象要素实况、数值预报产品和预报站点的天气实况等气象要素作为样本序列．建立预报回归方程．从而作出预报站点的客观天气预报产品。作为预报业务的初始天气预报的程序实现。它具有时间、空间、各气象要素预报的通用性、自动化。     

ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水的关系

应用近百年ENSO事件的研究成果和ENSO事件影响年的资料，统计分析近50年来ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水关系，为短期气候预测和汛期气象服务提供参考依据。