A Case study of a snowstorm at the Great Wall Station,Antarctica

A case of a snowstorm at the Great Wall Station was studied using data of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) analysis, in situ observations and surface weather charts. The storm occurred on August 29th,2006, and brought high winds and poor horizontal visibility to the region.It was found that the storm occurred under the synoptic situation of a high in the south and a low in the north. A low-level easterly jet from the Antarctic continent significantly decreased the air temperature and humidity.Warm air advection at high level brought sufficient vapor from lower latitudes for the snowstorm to develop.The dynamic factors relating to strong snowfall and even the developmentof a snowstorm were deep cyclonic vorticity at middle and low levels,the configuration of divergence at high level and convergence at low level, and strong verticaluplift. There was an inversion layer in the low-level atmosphere during the later phase of the storm.This vertical structure of cold air at low levels and warm air at high levels may have been important to the longevity of the snowstorm.     

Thickness distribution and extent of sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and surrounding waters observed in 2012/2013 austral summer

Three ship-based observational campaigns were conducted to survey sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and the surrounding waters(64.40°S–69.40°S, 76.11°E–81.29°E) from 28 November 2012 to 3 February 2013. In this paper, we present the sea ice extent and its variation, and the ice and snow thickness distributions and their variations with time in the observed zone. In the pack ice zone, the southern edge of the pack ice changed little, whereas the northern edge retreated significantly during the two earlier observation periods. Compared with the pack ice, the fast ice exhibited a significantly slower variation in extent with its northernmost edge retreating southwards by 6.7 km at a rate of 0.37 km?d-1. Generally, ice showed an increment in thickness with increasing latitude from the end of November to the middle of December. Ice and snow thickness followed an approximate normal distribution during the two earlier observations(79.7±28.9 cm, 79.1±19.1 cm for ice thickness, and 11.6±6.1 cm, 9.6±3.4 cm for snow thickness, respectively), and the distribution tended to be more concentrated in mid-December than in late November. The expected value of ice thickness decreased by 0.6 cm, whereas that of snow thickness decreased by 2 cm from 28 November to 18 December 2012. Ice thickness distribution showed no obvious regularity between 31 January and 3 February, 2013.     

基于神经网络优化算法的海洋动态缓波型立管设计

柔性立管连接海上平台和水下生产系统,缓波型构型可以减轻其受到的顶部张力和疲劳损伤,触地点处系链对于固定水下立管起着重要作用,然而加装系链的缓波型立管系统设计更为复杂。通过缓波型基本理论计算出合理的立管初始状态,之后使用立管分析软件OrcaFlex,在充分考虑环境因素、船体结构、立管材料和线型以及重力块、浮力块、系链等配置参数的情况下,建立缓波型立管系统有限元模型,通过静动态分析验证其满足设定的关于立管构型、张力、弯曲半径,系链张力和FPSO偏移量5个约束条件。结合神经网络优化算法和遗传算法制定出针对文中立管系统的优化算法并通过MATLAB编程将浮力块数量优化至最少,之后基于L-M算法构建神经网络模型,通过迭代训练提升精度,得到最终参数优化结果。通过对比优化前后静动态分析结果可知：优化后浮力块数量大幅减少,立管最大有效张力大幅减小,而悬挂段最低点深度有一定程度的增大,整体构型更趋向于合理的缓波型构型。     

基于循环孔洞扩张模型的X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测

海洋工程钢结构在服役过程中,受风、浪、流或地震等极端循环载荷的影响,易发生超低周疲劳断裂破坏,造成人员伤亡及财产损失,因此超低周疲劳断裂分析及寿命预测对于海工结构安全性评估至关重要。然而,现阶段基于累积损伤理论提出的多种超低周疲劳寿命预测模型无法对多尺度节点实现统一预测,造成了实际工程应用的不便。因此文中基于循环孔洞扩张模型开展X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测。首先,开发了基于循环孔洞扩张模型的VUSDFLD程序,实现ABAQUS与FORTRAN子程序联合应用,利用有限元分析验证循环孔洞扩张模型在X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂分析中的有效性;其次,根据多组X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂有限元分析结果,在宏观层面提出了一种基于Manson-Coffin公式的超低周疲劳寿命预测公式;最后,依据Miner理论,将适用于等幅加载的超低周疲劳寿命公式扩展至变幅加载情况,验证了多种节点尺寸下超低周疲劳公式的适用性,为工程应用提供了理论依据。     

统计地震学在地震危险性概率预测方法研究中的应用与讨论

地震是给人民生命财产造成重大威胁的自然灾害之一,地震预测是推动现代地震学学科建设与发展的原动力.在地震的确定性预测迄今仍面临诸多困难的情况下,寻找地震发生的时空统计特征,构建地震危险性统计预测模型成为了评估地震风险并应用于城市与生命线工程等抗震规划设计实际需求的重要途径.21世纪以来,以2008年汶川8级地震为代表的系...     

变形监测网稳定点选取的平方型Msplit相似变换法

针对现有参考网稳定点选取方法在不稳定点数较多时正确性和稳健性不足的问题,通过引入平方型M_split相似变换,提出了一种稳健的稳定点选取方法,在不稳定点较多、甚至不稳定点数超过稳定点数的情况下仍然有效。具体思路是:在计算两期坐标的相似变换参数时,利用平方型M_split估计将参考点组一分为二,取点数多的一组为稳定点组并继续分裂,直至两个点组对应的相似变换参数无明显差异时停止,利用最终的稳定点组计算相似变换参数来开展变形分析。试验结果表明,当参考网中存在变形量较大的点或不稳定点总数接近甚至超过稳定点数时,本文方法与传统S变换和抗差S变换相比,稳定点的判断正确率最高,求得的变形量与模拟变形量相差最小,稳定点组对应的两期坐标差均方根最小,能够正确反映控制点的实际变形。     

1974年5月11日云南省永善—大关地震

本文主要讨论了1974年5月11日云南省永善一大关地震的主震及其强余震的发震构造。指出主震至少由两次破裂组成,且与走向N34°W、倾向NE的断层有关,破裂方向自东南而西北。6月15日的最强余震其发震构造走向N40°E、倾向SE。最强余震发生前,释放应变的速率增快;同时,震中沿一定方向排列。     

爱琴地区新构造正断层带的构造非均匀性

一、引言 本文是对爱琴张性构造区新构造正断层带为期五年的野外调查结果所作的综台与分析(图1)．着重介绍爱琴地区的三个地带．(1)希腊大陆的科林斯地区(图1a)．(2)西土耳其的伊密兹尔地区(图1b)．(3)柯雷特的中部及西部(图1c)．在这三个地带正断层使中生代碳酸岩同第四纪沉积物直接相接，     

两个孟加拉湾风暴对我国降水不同影响的对比分析

运用常规气象资料和卫星资料对比分析了1999年10月16～19日、26～31日孟加拉湾两个强热带风暴在我国不同地区造成的强降水,得到：它们造成的降水落区和强度差别,主要决定于中纬度地区的冷空气活动及中低纬系统的相互作用。     

基于Matlab的断裂带温泉水地球化学特征及地震活动性研究

基于Matlab开发出地下流体分析软件,对比分析了甘肃西秦岭北缘的武山、街子和清水温泉水化学组分特征;初步分析了温泉水水质类型、补给来源、水-岩平衡状态以及循环深度,并讨论了温泉水深循环对地震活动性的影响.研究表明温泉水均为大气降水成因,其水化特征受围岩的控制作用;清水温泉水的成熟度没有武山和街子温泉水高.地下水循环深度较浅的武山温泉和街子温泉水化类型属于Na-HCO3·SO4·Cl,所处断裂的地震活动频繁;地下水循环深度较深的清水温泉水化类型属于Na-SO4·Cl,所处断裂的地震活动性弱.